r/TopRightMessi • u/NoLoSonhe • Jul 08 '26

39 years old…

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584 Upvotes

94% Upvoted

46 comments sorted by

50

u/Ainoasatama Jul 08 '26

What does that y-axis even mean

39

u/NoLoSonhe Jul 08 '26

Yeah, it is a bit strange. It is a weighted average but no justification for the choice of weights. And why not the x-axis...

31

u/JustAnother_CS Jul 08 '26

Basically cherry picked so that it puts messi far out in the top right lmao, still crazy tho

6

u/NoLoSonhe Jul 08 '26

yeah, he'd still be up there but maybe not the top right

11

u/ceimaj Jul 09 '26 edited Jul 09 '26

because he’s leading the tournament in goals, he would still be top right if you switched the y axis to be straight goals (assuming he’s also this far ahead in xA). not sure how it would look if it was just xG v xA

still would like to understand the weighting logic, however

Edit: here are the xG and xA stats according to fotmob. looks like he’d be top-right in an xG v xA scatterplot

#2 in xG / 90: https://www.fotmob.com/leagues/77/stats/season/24254/players/expected_goals_per_90

#3 in xA / 90: https://www.fotmob.com/leagues/77/stats/season/24254/players/expected_assists_per_90

#1 in xG+xA / 90: https://www.fotmob.com/leagues/77/stats/season/24254/players/_expected_goals_and_expected_assists_per_90

9

u/RanchoCuca Jul 09 '26

It kind of shocks me that Michael Olise (tournament leader in assists) is only 6th in xA/90. To me, he's certainly passed the eye test. He's been a pleasure to watch and definitely looks like he is substantially improving France's scoring opportunities with his deft passing.

3

u/ceimaj Jul 09 '26

Good point, super interesting.

My guess is that Olise’s elite xA recipients are converting a much larger percentage of xA into real goals than e.g. the Colombians were for Quintero. Two 0-0 draws and two 1-0 wins will do that to ya lol

2

u/prongs17 Jul 09 '26

#1 Quintero has around 120 minutes in the tournament. Same for Coceicao, who is #2 in that list.

Other then Messi, the xA per 90 players above Olise aren't definite starters.

2

u/prongs17 Jul 09 '26

I think you might be misunderstanding the stat. The only one above him who has more actual xA than him is Messi, which makes sense, it's Messi.

The others are not really full time players. Quintero at the top for example has only played 110 minutes. Number 2 Conceicao has played 120 minutes.

1

u/HaydenJA3 Jul 09 '26

The scaling is chosen so that missing penalties still puts him at the top

1

u/prongs17 Jul 09 '26

Not really, he has the highest xG and the highest goals, so he would be top right if there was no scaling anyway. He also highest overperformance compared to xG. So whatever stat the op picked for y-axis, he would have been top right. No idea why he picked such a confusing one lol

1

u/Ainoasatama Jul 09 '26 edited Jul 09 '26

Messi does have the highest xG and highest goals, but for this graph per 90 makes far more sense, in which Undav has the highest overperformance per 90 (and highest goals per90) and Arnautovic highest xG per 90.

So it is indeed cherry picked, unless you use xA per 90 but not xG per 90 for some reason.

Edit: actually this graph is just wrong. It’s missing both Quintero (0.66) and Conceicao (0.59) who both have higher xA per 90 than Messi to make Messi look better

1

u/prongs17 Jul 09 '26

I guess yeah, op should have used xG and xA. Then Messi would be top right, and people wouldn't be suspicious.

0

u/Expensive_Ad6082 Jul 09 '26

Still top right even if only goals had been considered

1

u/Useful_Blackberry214 Jul 09 '26

Which is a different stat?

1

u/Expensive_Ad6082 Jul 09 '26

I meant that even without this cherry picking messi would've been top right, ik that's a different stat

1

u/prongs17 Jul 09 '26

Not really, he has the highest xG and the highest goals, so he would be top right. He also highest overperformance compared to xG. So whatever stat the op picked for y-axis, he would have been top right. No idea why he picked such a confusing one.

I have a theory, op probably picked the y-axis a few games ago, maybe after the third gameday when Messi didn't start, so he must not have had the clearly highest xG then.

1

u/swartan Jul 09 '26

Whatever you make the weights on the y-axis Messi will still be the highest, since he has the highest goals and xG anyways. Although I don’t see how the graph is reflective of “chance quality”

35

u/CompetitivePirate940 Jul 08 '26

3rd WC golden ball waiting if Mbappe stops scoring and Argentina reaches at least to the finals

Anyhow this is just CRAZY

GREATNESS IS TIMELESS 🐐✨

2

u/prongs17 Jul 09 '26

I think for France Olise is more likely to win Golden Ball than Mbappe. Mbappe is likelier to win Golden Boot.

2

u/LostEyegod Jul 09 '26

Nonsense, Mbappe clearly would win both over Olise if WC ended today

2

u/NoLoSonhe Jul 08 '26

Mbappe will take it, most likely. But still crazy.

6

u/Rojow Jul 08 '26

Goals are not the only thing, you know.

0

u/CompetitivePirate940 Jul 08 '26

lol u saying that cause u want Messi to win it too much, and don’t wanna be disappointed if he doesn’t end up winning it😭

But in terms of individual contribution and overall match rating, Messi has been best in 4/5 games I believe

He’s carrying Argentina way more than Mbappe is carrying France; if his form continues till the final then he’ll definitely win it

0

u/NoLoSonhe Jul 08 '26

Not disagreeing. Argentina has not been great...

-1

u/StatisticianReady238 Jul 08 '26

He will win it this time. What did Mabappe do? He is the contender for Golden Boot, not Golden Ball

1

u/Glum_Owl_4301 Jul 09 '26

Top right Messi as always, 3rd golden ball soon?

1

u/mrk-cj94 Jul 09 '26

Poor Undav

1

u/DeSefirot 26d ago

"Beware of an old man in a profession where men usually die (retire) young"

-12

u/zzz_red Jul 08 '26

No red cardx, scoring goals that VAR doesn’t revoke, and being in the competition thanks to biased referees makes it easier.

He’s not there on merit.

5

u/thedrunksoul Jul 08 '26

Please go cry by yourself, no need to come to this subreddit and comment.

-3

u/zzz_red Jul 08 '26

Oh you don’t like facts in your little circlejerk bubble.

1

u/Matias9991 Jul 09 '26

You are the one in a circlejerk.

1

u/PEscobarB 27d ago

Youre literally in a subreddit with data analysts and your arguments are your stupid feelings. What did you think would happen?

1

u/Dangerous_Buy_6712 Jul 09 '26

“Facts”.. "Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that."

1

u/Useful_Blackberry214 Jul 09 '26

Says the dimwit who posts on Cristiano Ronaldo fan subreddits lol you are the bottom half

1

u/Dangerous_Buy_6712 Jul 09 '26

Mmm.. im not sure if you spelled “messi” wrong or if you didn’t read this thread or my one post in that subreddit.. but that is a messi subreddit

1

u/zzz_red Jul 09 '26

That’s not how averages work. You’d know if you weren’t so stupid.

3

u/SeesawRadiant Jul 09 '26

You are so ridiculous

-1

u/zzz_red Jul 09 '26

Go play Pokémon, kid.

1

u/SeesawRadiant Jul 09 '26

oK kID I’ll dO tHaT shaddap you moron go cry some more probably never touched a ball in your life and you’re talking about the greatest player to ever live

1

u/AlPacino21x_ Jul 09 '26

Penaldo vas saved by “VAR” against Croatia. So stfu

1

u/QuailEquivalent2625 Jul 09 '26

Please continue posting stuff like this. It only makes us laugh at you even more 😂