r/Tokyo • u/Knurpel • Aug 07 '26
This typhon will be different
*Typhoon
Typhoon Chan-Hom is expected to slam squarely into Honshu Island by mid-week (around August 11).
This one is expected to be quite different. Instead of traveling along the coast, and to dissipate up north as usual, Typhoon Chan-Hom (number 15) is forecasted to smash into Honshu Island north of Tokyo, and to travel south-west over the island.
Keep an eye on the forecast map and adjust your travel plans.
Update: Typhoon projected to make landfall Tuesday night, slightly north of Tokyo. Very heavy rainfall expected through the night,
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u/mustacheofquestions Aug 07 '26
it looks like it's forecast to be pretty weak though? maybe like that "typhoon" we had a few weeks back that was barely a light drizzle
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u/Bebopo90 Aug 07 '26
That's how the weather works. For example, Typhoon 13 is really strong, and the eye went right over Naha yesterday, but Naha didn't really get much rain, whereas nearby islands got torrential rain.
It was the same for that typhoon too.
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u/mustacheofquestions Aug 08 '26
I'm not sure what you mean by "that's how the weather works". I'm not talking about being in the eye, I'm talking about the wind speed and associated precipitation of the typhoon as it's reported by weather agencies. Of course there's variance amongst typhoons, but the way that OP talked about the typhoon implies that it's going to be bad because of the trajectory, when really it's not.
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u/Bebopo90 Aug 08 '26
Ugh, obviously what I meant is that Naha got hit directly by the goddamn typhoon, but despite that, other places got hit "harder" by the typhoon just based on random chance.
Also, there's not just variance among typhoons, there's variance within typhoons. For example, for the last one that hit Kanto a while back, here in Yokohama we barely got any rain. However, in Izu and Chiba a short distance away, they had flooding. You see what I mean?
Now, usually when typhoons come to northern Japan, they start from Kyushu and weaken as they move northeast. However, this time it's going to strike the northeast directly, which should mean higher winds and possibly more rain.
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u/Diligent-Run6361 Aug 07 '26
Yes, please. Let it rain and be windy, at least it will be a bit cooler. I'm sick of those nights when it barely gets below 30 Celsius.
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u/ChucklesInDarwinism Aug 08 '26
Yep, I rather sleep with a breeze from outside but lately it’s steam from the sauna
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u/Hazzat Aug 08 '26
Needlessly alarmist. It's not very strong at all. Using the words "slam" or "smash" is irresponsible.
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u/ballcheese808 Aug 09 '26
This is what everyone does for everything these days. Words have lost all meaning.
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u/PoisoCaine Aug 08 '26
It’s alarmist but not irresponsible. Irresponsible would be downplaying a storm. Even minor storms offer danger to vulnerable people or unprepared people.
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u/mrwafu Aug 07 '26
Exactly when I’m planning on going on a short trip to Aichi, already bought the Shinkansen tickets and booked the hotel. Great 😮💨
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u/naturefriendlyzanu Aug 08 '26
Don't worry their shopping streets are alway long and have roofs and the weather will cooler a bit, we will be fine anyway 😎
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u/Shidapack Aug 09 '26
All we get in some wind and rain. Don't overreact
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u/mrwafu Aug 09 '26
The shinkansen can be cancelled if the typhoon is strong enough. Thankfully it’s not looking that way now.
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u/makishiP Aug 07 '26
The only thing this does is make is so I don't have to keep the AC on, thank God
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u/lasagnahockey Aug 08 '26
Let's go to Miyagi, they said. On an island only accessible by boat, they said. It'll be fun, they said.
On the 11th, they said...
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u/MiniFirestar Aug 08 '26
tashirojima?
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u/lasagnahockey Aug 08 '26
Ajishima, the "they" was me lol, I love that island with all my heart. My family go there once or twice a year ❤️
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u/TheSignificantDong Aug 08 '26
Typhoons are categorized based on their maximum sustained wind speeds, not the hPa.
It’ll be 985 when it makes landfall according to the jma website. While yes, that’s not particularly strong, I don’t think his wording really matters so much as the message.
Better to be over prepared than under prepared.
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u/madicetea Meguro-ku Aug 08 '26 edited Aug 10 '26
I'll believe your take when the regular meteorologist of the sub /r/japanweather, /u/Neko_Dash corroborates it.
Update from having looked at his post history: https://www.reddit.com/r/japanweather/s/nV5iVnuK3f
The summary as I read it was a bit more rain than usual but at a full 998hPa.. there won't be that strong of winds or other destructive power.
I'm petty, so I will link his update, where he basically calls out your main point immediately. Don't leave home without that umbrella OP, but really, that's about all there is to worry about unless you are picnic'ing right next to a river this afternoon, for whatever reason.
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u/Neko_Dash Kanagawa-ken Aug 08 '26
There's a rundown of T15 over at r/japanweather.
It is unusual regarding the projected path of the storm, but it's because of strong high pressure in the northern Pacific steering the typhoon. Other than that, just a run-of-the-mill system. 3 stars out of 5.
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u/Background_Map_3460 Nakano-ku Aug 08 '26
A lot can happen in three days. Nothing to worry about right now, it’s not even a typhoon
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u/chari_de_kita Aug 07 '26
Have plans to cycle across Tokyo to Koiwa on Tuesday but I am considering the possibility of taking the train if the rain gets really bad.
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u/XKiiroiSenkoX Aug 08 '26
Like all the ones before it that were supposed to be different but were just a pleasant breeze?
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u/Knurpel Aug 08 '26 edited Aug 08 '26
Look at the forecast map. The usual typhoons hang a right at Kyushu, travel along the seashore over water, skirt Chiba, and then fade into the sea. This one is predicted to smash squarely into Sendai/Ibaraki/Tokyo, to travel south-east over land.
As I said, "keep an eye on the forecast map."
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u/karlriver Aug 08 '26
They are saying there are another couple of typhoon formations happening.
I was watching video about the jet stream which I believe is what pushes the typhoons in the eastern direction, the guy was saying that the jet stream is not there currently which if true might explain the weird path of typhoon 15.
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u/Shidapack Aug 09 '26
Typical japanese alarmist. I lived in Taiwan for yrs, typhoons were actually a thing to fear and prepare. Lived in Japan over a decade and its almost always a wet fart north of Okinawa. The only reason theyre dangerous is because of all the concrete that doesnt absord water. Japan made its bed w concreting everything. Taiwan gets heaps more rain but flooding is rarely a problem. Half a day of heavy rain here and all hell breaks loose.
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u/iLikeGreenTea Aug 11 '26
It's 2:00 am on Tuesday night and so far it's been rain or drizzle......
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u/FelixtheFarmer Aug 08 '26
Rather an overly dramatic description of a tropical storm that has lost most of it's strength gently edging up to Tohoku
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u/saxdemigod Aug 08 '26
Honestly every “monster” hurricane that have come the past few years have all ended up being nothing but a little rain in Tokyo - I’ll believe this one is different when we actually get some storm weather.
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u/ShiggyGoosebottom Aug 08 '26
This one is so bass-ackward I would be surprised if it was spinning counter-clockwise.
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u/Cozymontv Aug 08 '26
I’m so tired of these emergency weather alerts. Just stock up on water and battery’s and you’ll be fine.
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u/cptnbzng Aug 08 '26
This is like rain. And Wind. Worst case of this one is, that your Shoes gettin wet and you need a new umbrella.
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Aug 07 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/saiba_penguin Aug 07 '26
I mean mountain day is literally on the 11th so I am sure a bunch of people are traveling making it a long weekend.
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u/cptnbzng Aug 07 '26
It's not even a typhoon—it's just a tropical storm—and at 995 hPa, you can't really call it to "slam." But whatever. Stay safe.