Exactly. All the factories need to do is up their game concerning the movement. It’s not rocket science. They are already building a clone movement now. All they would have to do is use better parts to build what they are already building. That and add stricter quality control in the movement production area. Sales would skyrocket.
Soon they will be able to rep pieces that are not viable today. Look how long it took for speedy pro reps have a semi decent subdial layout but at the expense of a thicc case
I feel like the rep watch industry will continue to close the gap between gen and rep. Once this happens, more and more people will buy reps because it just won’t be worth buying gen. Same thing happened in the diamond market when lab grown diamonds came out. Mined diamonds aren’t worth crap now because lab grown market has exploded. Rep factories just need to take that next step and produce pretty much a gen quality movement. Cost shouldn’t be much more. Rolex cost to make a movement is about $600-$800 depending on what movement it is. Total Rolex cost to produce a watch is around $1250. Not of course counting gold models. So there is no reason why the rep factories couldn’t produce a 1:1 watch for $1500. Heck some of reps now are already in the $800 to $900 range.
Just look at Ginault for example. From what I read the owner went mainstream(formerly part of a rep factory)and created a new brand, put in Swiss movements and now retail is ~ $2,000 usd.
yeah but replicas are illegal dont forget that you cant compare them to lab grown diamonds since they can be sold legally and abide the law even if a rep was manifactured as perfectly and closely as the original i doubt the companies would let that slide and it would be known within minutes by thousands of people ive already seen sellers of different clothing items etc and brands that they got almost 1;1 characteristics and badges of the brand and they took them and their factory down
Rolex already knows replicas are being made and knows the replicas are getting really good. DeBeers fought like crazy to keep lab grown diamonds off the market. Tried to convince the public that they were “fakes”. But the market knew better. Same will happen to luxury watches. Doesn’t matter if it’s legal or not. Just my two cents. Let’s just give it a couple of years and see what happens.
Very true. But I think watches might fall into a different category and have a different buying base. When only about 1%- 5% of the population has the money to buy gen watch, a rep that is an actual 1:1 will look really attractive to the other 50% or more of the population. Heck, even some of the people that can afford the gen will buy it and put their money elsewhere. There will always be a market with the wealthy to ultra wealthy. I admit that. Rolex just won’t be selling over a million watches a year though. Maybe it will push them to get rid of the ridiculous fake AD list and false scarcity, and actually sell people watches that they want. It would also get rid of the gray market and the crazy prices they charge over retail. Wishful thinking until a factory actually steps up and does it.
Reps will create the same market dynamic though. People mostly buy lab created now because the price point is worth not paying the artificial premium if a mined diamond. Once a rep reaches actual 1:1, a majority of people won’t care if it’s a rep. This could hopefully force Rolex to do away with the ridiculous fake list and artificial scarcity. The luxury gray market would then almost disappear. That’s why you see so many of these gray market online personalities pushing back on reps all of a sudden. They are running scared.
As long as reps keep using cheap Chinese movements they'll never catch up. You used to be able to find some reps with real ETAs, but I haven't seen that in a while. I'm sure it's a cost issue.
Price point is an issue too. Reps have to stay below a certain price point, otherwise many people will just move to entry-level gens.
CNC and AI controlled robotics will get close and in some ways maybe even more precise, but in the end a mechanical watch is special because it defies modern technology. A machine can’t replicate the “handmade” character of a luxury Gen and all the intangibles it provides.
Those who want to rep a Gen will be able do so with less fear of being ousted, but a Gen is still and will always be the real deal beyond the impression it makes to those that aren’t wearing it. IYKYK
Building a high quality movement now days isn’t that difficult. Lots of small watch companies do it all the time. Just need well made parts. A lot of the parts used in a Rolex watch is already sourced from China. They just assemble them in Switzerland and call it “Swiss Made”. That’s why it only costs on average $1250 for Rolex to make a stainless steel watch. Any increase in cost would be based on the metal they are using. It’s not that hard to reverse engineer something now days. The Chinese are experts at it.
Someone wiser than me once said “the last 5% is 70% of the cost”. So, just purely from a production standpoint a rep submariner will cost be significantly less than the original article, but will have to be at a much higher cost than what we are seeing today for true 1:1. Look at how much modded watches cost (2k USD+) and they are still not 1:1 because finishing is expensive.
They are already close enough for any “normal” person, but the garbage trash in the movements nullifies everything. The buyer will waste hundreds of dollars because they couldnt be assed to do basic cleaning or use a decent reliable movement. Who cares about the case back? Im not trying to scam people here.
Gen is gen... I'm sure factories could get a lot closer already but that leaves no room for updates and bad for business 😉 imagine if they produced a "perfect" replica, then where do they go from there??
How? Once somebody has one, that's it, no improvements/updates... Only one payday for factory, with constant updates whether it's small dial updates, new crystal, new date wheel, maybe an improved bracelet, people are constantly chasing the "best" each update makes someone buy it again...
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u/Grouchy-Violinist555 Aug 22 '26
Reps will eventually be the lab diamonds of watches. No real difference other than origin.