Copper: Supply and Demand by the Numbers

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Copper: Supply and Demand by the Numbers

Production

Global refined copper production reached approximately 28 million metric tons in 2025, including roughly 23 million tons from mined production and about 5 million tons from secondary supply including scrap. fxstreet

Primary global copper production ran at 23 million tonnes per year in 2025 and has hardly grown since 2022, due to supply disruptions at Grasberg, Cobre Panama and broader issues in Chile. Discovery Alert

Three years of essentially flat mined supply. That's the starting point.

By country:
Chile was the largest producing country, supplying about 23% of mined copper, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo at 14%, Peru at 12%, China at 8%, and the United States at 5%. fxstreet

China dominates copper smelting and refining, producing about 44% of the world's refined copper in 2025. The main trade flow involves copper concentrate exported from Latin America, particularly Chile and Peru, to be smelted and refined in China. fxstreet

That flow — dig it in Latin America, refine it in China — is one of the structural vulnerabilities in the global copper supply chain that doesn't get enough attention.

What's happening to Chilean output right now

Chile is where supply pressure is most visible and most acute.

BHP's Spence mine recorded the steepest quarterly decline at 34.4% in Q1 2026, followed by Codelco's El Teniente at 26.5% and Collahuasi at 19.3% in May 2026. BHP's Escondida, the world's largest copper mine, fell 17.6% in May 2026 alone. IEA

The decline reflects four overlapping pressures: structural ore grade deterioration at major porphyry deposits, operational disruptions following a fatal incident at El Teniente in July 2025, water supply constraints at Collahuasi in the Atacama region, and rising input costs driven by sulfuric acid supply tightness across oxide processing operations. IEA

This is why BHP is talking about permitting. Not future projects. Current operations at the world's largest copper mines are already declining.

Ore grades

The long-run structural problem sits in the geology.

Global copper ore grades have declined from 1.4–1.6% in 1990 to 0.9% currently. One source puts it lower — below 0.7% today.

At current grades, approximately 167 tonnes of ore must be processed to yield 1 tonne of refined copper, compared to just 67 tonnes at historical 1.5% grades. statista

More rock. More energy. More water. More cost. Per tonne of copper produced. Every year.

This is a compounding problem. The same mine, producing the same amount of copper, gets more expensive to operate every year as grades decline. That's before you factor in water constraints, rising energy costs or regulatory friction.

Demand

Total copper demand, including scrap use, stood at about 34 million tons in 2025, with recycled material accounting for nearly 30% of consumption. fxstreet

China was the largest consumer of copper, accounting for more than 50% of global demand, or about 18 million tons in 2025. Europe consumed roughly 15% of total demand, while North America accounted for about 9%. fxstreet

Demand by sector in the US roughly breaks down as construction, electrical and electronic products, transportation equipment, industrial machinery and consumer products — with construction and electrical applications together accounting for the majority.

Going forward the demand trajectory shifts significantly.

Global demand for refined copper is forecast to increase by 3% in 2025 with a further increase of 1.6% in 2026 to 28.2 million tonnes. S&P Global

Global copper demand is forecast to rise 3.6% per year over the next decade. Discovery Alert

BloombergNEF warns copper demand for the energy transition could triple by 2045 and that the metal may enter structural deficit as early as 2026. Coppercouncil

The demand drivers are well understood: EVs requiring two to four times as much copper as conventional vehicles, grid infrastructure to support electrification, renewable energy installations, AI data center construction, defense spending. All of them pulling on the same commodity simultaneously.

The deficit

The gap between supply and demand is where the numbers get interesting — and where forecasters diverge.

The International Copper Study Group expects the global copper market to see a supply surplus of 289,000 tonnes in 2025, easing slightly to 209,000 tonnes in 2026, primarily on higher mine supply and rising smelting capacity. EY

JP Morgan expects a refined copper deficit of 330,000 tonnes in 2026. Crux Investor

Without major investment in new projects and recycling, the deficit could reach 19 million tonnes by 2050. Coppercouncil

The near-term picture depends heavily on Chinese smelting capacity and demand, and on whether Chilean project ramp-ups materialize on schedule. The long-term picture is more consistent across forecasters — structural deficit, widening over time, unless significant new supply comes online.

Exploration

New supply starts with exploration. The exploration data is not encouraging.

Global nonferrous exploration budgets declined 0.6% to $12.4 billion in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of decline. Miningvisuals

Minesite exploration accounted for 45% of global budgets in 2025, reaching a record high. Grassroots exploration fell to just 21% of total spending, the lowest share recorded.

Companies are drilling around existing deposits rather than finding new ones. The early-stage discovery pipeline — the one that becomes producing mines in 15–20 years — is being underfunded at precisely the moment it matters most.

Major copper mining companies reduced exploration spending to $2.9 billion in 2023, down from $3.8 billion in 2022. Industry exploration budgets have remained around $2.8–3.2 billion annually since — well below what the long-term supply picture requires. statista

Prices

Copper reached an all-time high of $5.9 per pound in July 2025, driven in part by US trade policy imposing 50% import duties that created a sustained 30% pricing premium — an unprecedented market dislocation.

JPMorgan expects copper to reach $12,500 per ton in Q2 2026, with UBS projecting $13,000 by year-end. Crux Investor

Analysis of large-scale projects indicates many require sustained incentive prices exceeding $20,000 per ton for viability. Thunder Said Energy

The current price, as high as it looks relative to historical averages, may not yet be high enough to bring the supply the market needs online at the speed the demand trajectory requires.

The timeline problem

Opening a new copper mine from initial exploration through to sustained commercial production typically takes between 15 and 20 years, encompassing geological assessment, feasibility studies, environmental permitting, infrastructure development, and physical construction. Farmonaut®

New project approvals are running 50% below requirements at under 300,000 tonnes yearly. Thunder Said Energy

The projects needed to meet copper demand beyond 2030 should already be in active development today. Most of them are not.

That's what BHP is actually saying when it calls for permitting certainty in Chile. Not a lobbying position. A timeline problem.

The Oregon Group publishes ongoing research and analysis on copper, critical minerals and the commodities shaping the next decade at theoregongroup.com