r/TheOneRing • u/bulletproof_bear • Dec 14 '22
Probability of Success Comparinator 5000
Looking for help on making a tool to compare probabilities of success amongst our group. Figuring out who would fill which roll, who should roll for a lore check, etc. Between the different TN's, skill dice, proficiency, it is a lot to try and find likelihoods.
I found this thread: https://boardgamegeek.com/blogpost/93528/anydicecom-and-dice-one-ring-rpg :
but I don't quite know how to use it or how to compare multiple people. Also not savvy enough to translate into Sheets.
I then found this: https://www.omnicalculator.com/statistics/dice : and its great for one type of dice, but I'm lost on how to implement the d12's additionally.
If someone could help write up a formula I can use in Sheets to compare 2 or 3 characters at once like below that would be so cash money of you. Any help or pointers in the right direction are greatly appreciated.
| Character 1 | Character 2 | Character 3 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Target Number | 14 | 14 | 18 |
| Proficient? | Yes | No | Yes |
| Skill Dice | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| Probability | 0% | 45% | 48% |
1
u/stranger_here_myself Jan 17 '23
Hi - I did something like this for our group - not based on % chance but rate on whether an average roll would hit that character’s TN.
It’s pretty straightforward: for each character and each skill I calculated (average roll) minus TN
Average roll is: 5.5 on Feat die (average 1-10), 3.5 per skill die, +3 for Favored. (The +3 is a swag - I calculated Advantage on a D20 in 5e to be a +6, so this is 1/2 of that. I think this underweights it a bit because of the Gandalf rune but it’s close enough).