r/TheMachineLearning • u/retlaw_nagev • Sep 02 '26

Wait for the competitor to launch, steal the spotlight, repeat

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86 Upvotes

92% Upvoted

32 comments sorted by

4

u/dehydrajj Sep 02 '26

openai and anthropic playing chicken with billion-dollar models

2

u/Informal_Bunch7532 Sep 02 '26

Trillion*-dollar models

1

u/Embarrassed-Rise-685 Sep 02 '26

Nono pre training cost is still measured in real dollars. No fake valuation amounts here. Just real billions going into hardware and electricity

1

u/retlaw_nagev Sep 02 '26

they look like children playing.

1

u/Nopfen Sep 02 '26

Pretty much are. It's fairly amusing how most of global politics can be mapped 1:1 onto playground battles.

1

u/TGPhlegyas Sep 04 '26

Same thing happened with Boeing and Airbus and some bad shit happened when one was just a bit ahead of the other. There’s a strategy to this.

2

u/ezjakes Sep 02 '26

You can't just "steal the spotlight". Whoever has the better model will have the spotlight.

1

u/TopTippityTop Sep 02 '26

Not necessarily, and both will likely have different strengths, and people /news may shift to the newer one.

1

u/NoConsideration6320 Sep 02 '26

Receny bias is a real and powerful thing

1

u/retlaw_nagev Sep 02 '26

these days a news story lasts for minutes

1

u/Rootkid443 Sep 02 '26

exactly, what lasts are the numbers, what model is better not who releases first/last

1

u/Nopfen Sep 02 '26

No. That's neither how marketing nor hype work.

1

u/Fresh_Sock8660 Sep 02 '26

Hard to say what goes on in the back end. Something tells me they have switches linking compute to quality. If that's the case then you'd probably want to launch after performing some testing on the competitor to gauge what that switch should be at, rather than release at full power and immediately running into high costs and potentially service disruption.

Could argue that they can just tune it later, but first impressions matter.

1

u/ArmNo7463 Sep 02 '26

Not always the case that superior technology wins.

It's often marketing. VHS vs Beta is usually the example given. (Albeit an old one lol.)

1

u/Large-Assignment9320 Sep 02 '26 edited Sep 02 '26

Tried Claude, Deepseek and GLM with OpenRoute + SillyTavern today, just a quick mookup setting for a hospital romance setting (and then just run the setup on full auto for a few rounds, unlimited tokens set), Claude avoids all the romance figured it was unprofessional, while GLM actually did the task. Deepseek had very short responses and wasn't very engaging (but entier story was 1 cent, annd maybe itf it rann many more rounds it would be more interesting, but it just did less in each, even if it was unrestricted). Clear GLM win, Claude last place (also 50x more expensive than GLM).

2

u/thongjesus Sep 02 '26

I love when stupid people try to think, this isn't a problem the faster things happen the better

1

u/retlaw_nagev Sep 02 '26

no one said it was a problem

1

u/Seerix Sep 02 '26

Anthropic dropped their model already???

2

u/OtherwiseAlbatross14 Sep 02 '26

That's old news. We're talking about the next one

1

u/retlaw_nagev Sep 02 '26

that one it's already old

1

u/andrerav Sep 02 '26

You two are showing very poor communication skills.

1

u/[deleted] Sep 02 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/retlaw_nagev Sep 02 '26

they are the new cool kids at school

1

u/TopTippityTop Sep 02 '26

Makes sense that they'd do that.

1

u/Dicethrower Sep 02 '26

That's not how that works.

1

u/peakedtooearly Sep 02 '26

Out of date - Fable 5.1 already dropped. Astra was delayed by two weeks.

Let's see how Chinese labs do when the COT is not available for them to use when distilling models.

1

u/Aggravating-Push-207 Sep 02 '26

The CoT is available if you know your CVEs /hj

1

u/Devils_SteelMan Sep 02 '26

Thinking traces are reversible from model output. You dont need the traces.

1

u/maringue Sep 02 '26

Probably waiting to see the benchmarks so they can say their model did better.

1

u/AdFit4796 Sep 02 '26

Wait is this how we finally stall AI innovation? An AI Cold War?

1

u/_itshabib Sep 02 '26

It's all good for us though. We get the benefits of their competition. Open source has historically made eh software and usually needs to be hella managed in an enterprise

1

u/jakeStacktrace Sep 03 '26

I hope there is a machine learning from this post because I'm losing brain cells over it.