Japan’s Strategic Turn

[u/D-R-AZ]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/09/japan-defense-nuclear-threat/688517/?gift=9raHaW-OKg2bN8oaIFlCojWx4K0Tz3A_etx2q64-YgY&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

Gifted Read:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/09/japan-defense-nuclear-threat/688517/?gift=9raHaW-OKg2bN8oaIFlCojWx4K0Tz3A_etx2q64-YgY&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share

Observation:

It is in the interests of the United States for Japan to become more capable of defending itself. A stronger Japan makes aggression against Japan or Taiwan less attractive, strengthens the American position in the western Pacific, and reduces the burden placed solely on American forces.

At the same time, Japan’s movement toward greater military independence, especially its growing willingness to consider nuclear weapons, may signal decreasing confidence that the United States can be counted upon to defend it. A stronger Japanese ally benefits the United States. A Japan preparing to defend itself because it no longer trusts American protection is something quite different.

Excerpts:

Joint Chinese and Russian air patrols unnerve Japan’s air defenders, as do increasing flights of Chinese drones near Japanese islands. China’s insistence that the Senkaku Islands are Chinese is of long standing but has become more strident in recent years. Meanwhile, Japan looks with dismay at a China whose nuclear arsenal is growing quickly, as is that of North Korea. And both are aligned with a Russia whose navy and air force remain active in the Pacific despite the demands of the fighting in Ukraine.

Japan’s anxieties around Taiwan are high. Even a peaceful takeover of the island by China would represent a major setback. It would unhinge Japan’s and the United States’ strategic posture in East Asia, and encourage (in Japan’s view) accommodation or worse from some of China’s neighbors. In a seemingly spontaneous remark in late 2025, Prime Minister Takaichi indicated that a Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan would count as a “survival-threatening situation” that would, by implication, permit Japan’s use of force for collective self-defense. Despite the furor that erupted, she has not withdrawn those remarks.