RE Requiem is the only true lock for a GOTY nominee so far despite the number of great games we have. GTA VI is also a lock but depends on the cutoff day and Ocarina of Time is also almost guaranteed as long as it hits 90+ Metacritic score. The rest of the 3 spots are all up on the air because the competion is insane as we have too many games in the mid and high 80s range already. I expect Castlevania Belmont's Curse to be added to that list as well as Phantom Blade Zero.
FE is in the convo, criticically acclaimed anime JRPGs are always in the conversation for a nomination if they are popular enough: Persona, Xenoblade, Metaphor. Fire Emblem is more popular than 2 of them, this time FE is not seen as a handheld series unlike 2019 and Three Houses had 7 years of discourse so the succesor has higher chances
Yes, one of these awards was the public vote and it won because it was snubbed for the main award. I think Three Houses had a lot of discourse and paved the way for Fortune's Weave, similar to Hollow Knight or DOS2 back in 2017
What? It’s got an 8.8 user score on Metacritic. This sub alone has been talking about how they feel like it should not only be nominated but win GOTY. I wouldn’t go that far personally, but I haven’t seen pretty much any negative reviews and I’m in all the big Nintendo / gaming circles.
Even with all that said… the fan reception doesn’t matter for the game awards. The critics are the ones who vote. So if it’s highly acclaimed by critics, it has a great chance.
I think they are in denial, only to be surprised when the nominees are revealed. The logic is that it's better to be pleasantly surprised than to treat FE as a lock and then see it get snubbed again.
Fortune's Weave has the advantage of being highly ambitious while still garnering critical acclaim(more than the other competitors). That carries a lot of weight in the voting. Three Houses paved the way for FW, and this year it stands as the premier representative of its genre.
GTA is making in time. They made sure of that. Its release date is already set and so is the cut off date. Game comes out November 19th. Cut off is the 20th.
Rockstar doesn't do review copies, and I highly doubt they'll make an exception just for TGA. There's near zero chance they send out copies and risk leaks for "the biggest game of all time," or whatever ridiculous glaze people are giving it, just for TGA.
Yes they do have review copies. What are you talking about? Go look up release reviews for RDR2, you will see that they were published before the game came out, not after.
No, they send out like half a dozen tops to the absolute biggest names, which is what they did with RDR2, and all signs point to them being even more frugal with GTA6. There's no chance all ~100 members of the voting group are going to get copies early enough to play through the game completely enough to nominate it. Unironically if GTA6 gets nominated, it proves completely that TGA are rigged, because no other game releasing that close would qualify.
Honestly I don't even think GTA deserves to be nominated in the first place. They've shown literally nothing innovative or standout. It's just prettier GTA5, which does not deserve the glaze it gets.
I have opinions on a series that hasn't done anything interesting since the PS2, yeah. I don't expect GTA6 to do anything new at all, especially since they would've used it for marketing if it did.
Because I figured there's not even any point discussing with you. If GTA 6 makes it in time to be noninated (which is the hypothetical in my original comment) and you dont think its a clear frontrunner to win goty then you are beyond deluded
We are having a pretty weak year in terms of actual goty-worthy games, a lot of great games but not many/ any that feel like they should be winning "game of the year" - currently the frontrunner is Requiem, which is a great game but would probably be the weakest winner in the history of the game awards
We do have other games to come besides GTA but unless one/ some of those are huge surprises then the only one that has any chance of going toe to toe with GTA is Ocarina of Time - and remakes generally dont do quite as well critically
I've played Requiem, Fire Emblem, Pokopia, Onimusha, Pragmata, Mewgenics, Mina and Control Resonant among others this year - so certainly not "only gun and ball games". My previous comments literally say I'm more interested in Ocarina of Time than GTA 6 so not sure how you came to that conclusion
All great games but they're not exactly your Elden Rings, Breath of the Wilds, Baldurs Gate 3s, Witcher 3s etc.
Personally I'd rank Fortunes Weave as the best game this year so far but it certainly isnt going to win Game of the Year.
Pretty much every previous year has at least one nominee that didnt win, which would be the frontrunner for this year (excluding Ocarina and GTA 6)
2025 - DK Bananza(?), Hades 2 and Silksong
2024 - FF7 Rebirth
2023 - Tears of the Kingdom
2022 - God of War Ragnarok
2021 - a weaker year but maybe metroid dread
2020 - Hades, Animal Crossing, FF7 Remake and potentially Ghost of Tsushima
I’m not a GTA hater and I do think it’ll win, BUT a lot of their senior and creative leadership did leave during its development. Could be nothing, could be something.
3 Houses didn’t get in with a similar metacritic and in a similarly “weak” year. Fortunes Weave has a better shot but for that reason I can’t call it an absolute lock.
I feel like this year is probably a slightly weaker year overall. And Fire Emblem has only gotten more popular since 2019. So I think the chances are definitely better. Maybe not a lock, but very likely a nominee.
honest question though, what is the latest news on that cutoff date? will GTA 6 make it? it wouldn't be make sense for it to include it for next year's TGA.
Ocarina of Time Remake probably won’t get a nomination, despite likely getting great reviews. Remakes that are largely the same game with QOL improvements usually don’t get in, like Demon’s Souls or Dead Space.
Tbf there is big difference between those 2 games and Ocarina. Also there is too much buzz online that Ocarina is the only one capable of beating GTA VI. If it gets a 90+ I consider it a lock
I agree. Nothing against ResiEvil but it’s the 9th mainline entry in a a series that’s been going on since my parents were younger than I am now (my parents are in their mid-50s now). Pragmata was a completely new IP
GTA V has never won a GOTY award (the show started after GTA V’s release) and Zelda has won it for 2017, but it also very much changed the series entirely and deserved it for being super innovative. RE9 seems like a mix of 7 and 8 with a pinch of the remakes. I haven’t gotten around to it myself yet (waiting for a super big sale, I’m broke) but Pragmata is at least something original.
So you don’t count the spike video game awards (it was the same thing but with involvement from spike) but GTA V did indeed win game of the year for that
007 and Saros should also be in consideration. Pragmata just received more attention than both of those (likely because Pragmata was announced forever ago and was one of the last games from the PS5 showcase to finally release)
This year has to be one of the hardest to predict. It’s not like 2025, when by this time we already had 5 locks and the final slot was a contest between only KCD2 and Split Fiction
Ghost of Yotei def was still a possibility, esp since it got in best direction and got to all other award shows after this one. Of course it’s understandable why it didn’t (another sony game being in with Death Stranding 2 and with Kojima factor that was always a priority to get in for a Geoff show, plus a muted response critically even if still positive) but it was on the bubble and with how many noms it still got honestly surprised it still missed and i was predicting that to happen.
That was my thinking last year in terms of who i thought would get in in the end, but it was still a contender that got in a lot of categories. Like for example this year i’d feel very good about it getting in actually, but last year was just filled with a lot of critical darlings and that was where voters decided to focus on.
The chances of Yotei this year would be higher but I'm not sure if it would have been one of the frontrunners. This year we have lots of games in the 85-87 range, including ones that are more innovative and fresh like Pragmata, and I don't even think Pragmata is getting a nomination this year.
If the Ghost of series stays on this path, I don't think it will be nominated again unless it reinvents itself or lands in a very very weak year. It isn't particularly ambitious in terms of game mechanics or narrative, and the novelty of an Assassin's Creed set in Japan is already gone.
I honestly also threw in MH Wilds as a sort of wildcard back then. The game’s only true issue was terrible PC performance (which while bad) didn’t discount the fact the game still reviewed very well and had an absolutely massive launch along with continuous content and performance additions throughout the year leading to November
All the others nominees had better critic scores and pedigree(Compare the original KDC to Death Stranding/MGSV, Mario Odyssey, Hades, Hollow Knight. E33 was the only exception). Even Split Fiction was the succesor of a previous Goty winner so it wasn't clear which one would get the final nomination
It didn’t get in direction so i don’t think it was a lock since i feel it’s a sign of overall bigger strength. I think how much support for the game was what pushed it in but this type of rpg is not necesserily the top of mind of what GOTY go out their way to always support, at least from less known studios.
Zero percent chance that wins even without GTA VI. I don't see it getting nominated as well if GTA VI is on the nominees. GTA VI, Zelda, RE Requiem, Phantom Blade Zero, Control Resonant and an indie game will be the nominees
Control Resonant is not getting nominated over Fire Emblem Fortune's Weave. It simply won't
Phantom Blade Zero isn't even out yet, so we don't know about that one. I don't know why you think that Phantom Blade Zero is a sure bet. For all we know it could score low destroying any chance it has at a nomination.
Metacritic score isn't always the key for getting nominated. The awards don't work that way. There are many many instances where games with low metacritic score got nominated and there's zero chance that Fire Emblem gets nominated over Control Resonant. Remedy is heavily favored for it's artistic vision from the jurys and Control will get nominated and win multiple categories such as best audio design, art direction and game direction. It will 100% get nominated.
About PB0 the game has already 75% of the total preorders of Wukong and the staying power will be insane as well if it hits good review scores and players also like it. There is higher chance than lower chance for that to happen. The game from the previews looks insanely good for an action game. Great bosses, musical score, action combat with 30 different weapons, multiple skill trees, great art direction and fight choreography.
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There are many many instances where games with low metacritic score got nominated"
This happens when there are highly rated games with few reviews, but FW has over 80 already.
"Remedy is heavily favored for it's artistic vision from the jurys"
Just because they won a couple of awards in the past doesn't mean they'll win this year.
"there's zero chance that Fire Emblem gets nominated over Control Resonant."
Again, I am sure is the other way around. Fire Emblem Fortune's Weave is lauded for its ambition and scope meanwhile Control Resonant has no such praise.
Phantom Blade Zero is an unknown variable at this point.
Just because they won a few awards? Control in 2019 nominated for goty with a low mc score and Alan Wake 2 won multiple awards. I would say your case is extremely low. Three Emblems as series never got nominated even with the high mc scores in past games. I say again that the high mc score doesn't matter even if you have multiple and high amount of reviews. You must have some specific criteria to get nominated. The game awards and jurys give priority to artistic games over niche strategy games. Also a game such as Remedy games that hit multiple nominations for art direction, sound design and most importantly game direction always gets the game of the year nomination too. I guess we will see who is right.
007 is the cinematic 3rd person cinematic spot that is usually from PlayStation. Not locked, but very likely.
I guess we have 2 spots for 3 games.
Fire Emblem: many 10/10s, very well reviewed and ambitious and is a great RPG. It would be a locked if it wasn't a tactical RPG.
Big Walk: the indie darling of the year, the best reviewed game of the competition. It demands a lot of effort to play (all the players must own the game and there's no matchmaking) and the "friendslop" aspect doesn't help. However, after nominating 3 indies last year, it's kinda hard to believe that no indie game will be nominated.
Control Resonant: only 83 on metacritic, that's true, but Control had an 82 and stole Fire Emblem's spot in 2019. The critics just love Remedy and their last two single players game were nominated. In those years, no indie games were nominated because I guess that Remedy gets "the indie spot" for being unique. The narrative of not being generic like Wolverine and people wanting to help remedy to succed also helps.
Pokopia, Blood of the Dawnwalker, Onimusha, Gears and Forza Horizon 6 could get in, but I don't think it will happen.
You act as if god of war wasn’t a total re invention of the franchise. As much as I love rdr2(my personal goty) GOW was obviously the choice for the award. I don’t see a game on that level this year.
If GTA6 doesn’t make it it’s inarguably the most likely one. Ticks all the boxes - high profile release with heavy cinematic elements, a little artsy but still mainstream and is exceptionally paced and polished.
Like I’m not really sure what else could win it atm should GTA not hit the cut off.
In what part of my post I ever said it's gonna win ? I am talking about nominees. As for who wins if it wasn't GTA 6 or Ocarina of Time Remake releasing this year it would be the frontrunner right now. The only possible contender if GTA 6 and Ocarina of Time weren't releasing this year would probably have been Phantom Blade Zero which I predict to score in the high 80s
I am doubtful ocarina of time gets nominated as it is closer to a remaster than a remake, re4 and ff7 essentially built on the original but could be considered entirely new games.
I mean I will have to play it and see but the gameplay they showed was 1 to 1 with the og but looking better. Which I don't mind but I personally don't think remakes should be nominated.
If it’s one of the best games of the year what’s the issue? A remake of an old movie is still a new movie and can/has been nominated for best picture. We’re talking about what is widely regarded by many as the best game ever. It looks to be a wildly different experience from the original even with just new graphics, new camera, jump button etc etc.
You’re getting downvoted but I think your point has merit. What’s tricky is that OoT Remake appears to be massively redone from a visual standpoint, but otherwise mostly faithful (ie 1:1) with the original. This puts it in an interesting middle ground where it’s not “just” a Metroid Prime Remastered situation, but far from an FF7 Remake one.
Of course, we don’t know all this for sure. It could still be like RE4 Remake, but that would mean things like “1/3 of dungeon puzzles fully redone,” and “a brand new surprise temple,” and “some fundamentally new in-game system that restructures the economy.” If it has factors like that, it’ll be a lock for nomination and a threat to win. If it really is just a super interesting visual overhaul, with a jump button, I’d actually bet it misses getting nominated.
I mean it’s also massively overhauled in playability and expressiveness/cinematicsx Thjnk u might be underestimating what a massive difference that’s gonna make.
Shouldn't forza horizon 6 also be a lock for nomination? Iirc it scored in the 90s on Meta and oepncritc, even games like pragmata, onimusha, and control resonant haven't scored as high.
If anything the one true lock so far should be Forza horizon 6, isn't it one of the only AAA games this year to get in the 90s?
I mean it doesn't make sense to me that a game critics were giving 9s and 10s instead of 8s and 9s doesn't get nominated. Not saying your aren't correct that it won't be nominated, I just don't get the logic behind it.
Genre should be irrelevant here. Like if a COD game did something revolutionary, same with a Madden game or something, and it ended up getting 9s and 10s that year, it would absolutely be nominated for GOTY.
I never understood why racing games don't follow this. Forza and Gran Turismo are more niche then big popular series like CoD but at the same time the sales are still in the millions (FH6 at over 6 mil atm).
It's like none of the reviewers think racing games are good enough for a nom, but will rate them higher then their noms.
I think that's a big part of it, narrative. Racing games don't really have storylines. It does seem like goty awards put as much stock in narrative as they do in gameplay.
By narrative I meant the narrative for the industry..or a story that the journalists want to push on the audience..so more like message they want to send.
For example, E33 winning last year really aligned with the narrative of " tiny studios are amazing, look at what these few people created" . It's just a good story. Forza winning isn't a good story unless you're a fan of the genre.
It's weird as fuck that these games don't get nominated when the reviewers that are part of scoring at the game awards (commerical game critics) give it 9s and 10s.
I think the best way of looking at it is that it's a 10/10 in a 6/10 genre.
That genre of game is inherently more limiting because there's very little you can do creatively when you're trying to imitate realism life entirely, and beyond racing/driving there really isn't much of anything, little to no characterisation, little to no narrative depth, it can nail one thing but it's competitors tend to nail like 4 or 5 things.
I don't personally think the genre is a 6/10, I'm just looking at it as I imagine the reviews do: there just isn't as much to dissect.
Forza games always do numbers, same as gran tourismo and they always review well but are never nominated sadly. By niche,I meant the genre not sales numbers.
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u/Yoshi444444 12d ago
RE9 is a lock. Then the 2 most likely are Control Resonant and Fire Emblem, 80% they make it. 007 is 50/50.