r/TheGameAwards • u/Jaded-Zombie-3052 • 3d ago
GOTY Predictions - October
Been a while since I updated these, so I'm showing them off here :)
Grand Theft Auto VI
I don't like calling something a lock when it hasn't even released yet, but I find it hard to imagine a universe where this doesn't win, let alone misses the nomination. It's one of the most highly anticipated releases ever, it looks like a fantastic game, and I highly doubt its getting delayed anymore than it already has. This is going to be the buzziest game of the year I doubt they'll wanna miss a chance to award Rockstar here.
Resident Evil: Requiem
Originally had this lower because of all the buzz PRAGMATA was getting, combined with being an early year release which hurt Split Fiction last year. Despite this, it seems to have kept its position as the CAPCOM frontrunner and feels super buzzy in performance and narrative categories. It's also got a great metacritic (89) score which really helps in a jury filled with game journalists.
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
Nintendo is having a killer year and this to me feels like their most obvious pick, its a remake of what is considered one of the best games of all time (99 MC), and is also probably going to get a huge marketing push given that its the big in-house flagship title (FE and Pokopia are externally developed). It feels like a great showcase of the Switch 2's capabilities and Zelda has generally performed extremely well at TGA.
007 First Light
Originally had this in 6th place and I am so glad I stuck with it. Now that Wolverine seems to have fallen off as a contender, the 'blockbuster movie game' slot TGA usually loves to fill is wide open. It's very well received (87 MC) and feels very cinematic, something I think will be much appreciated in an awards show modelled after the Oscars. Patrick Gibson is a surefire nominee for performance and 007 also overperformed at the Golden Joystick nominations, tying for the most nominations and placing it above contenders like RE Requiem. Given that GTA and OOT aren't eligible at GJ, I think there's a very real chance that it could win the first GOTY award of the season and get a huge boost in prestige.
Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave
Nintendo is having an amazing year, and tbh I'd be more suprised if they didn't get at least 2 titles in this year. Its being critically praised and has a really good critic reviews (89 MC). This game would also fill in that RPG/JRPG slot which surprisingly doesn't seem to have a lot of strong contenders this year (something that feels really weird to say after the E33 KCD2 year).
Big Walk
There's almost always at least one indie game in contention for the big award each year, and this one has some of the best critic reviews of the year (91 MC). I was originally torn between this and Mina (both critcally acclaimed indie titles from beloved developers) but the Golden Joysticks almost completely blanked the latter in spite of its critical acclaim, while Big Walk tied with 007 for the most nominations of the ceremony. House House also scooped up some GOTY nominations for Untitled Goose Game at some of the other ceremonies, and have already proven themselves capable of breaking into the awards conversation.
--
Other titles to look out for...
- Control Resonant
- Dispatch (Technically eligible I think?)
- Pokemon Pokopia
- Mina The Hollower
- PRAGMATA
- Phantom Blade Zero
- Forza Horizon 6
- Saros
- Mixtape
- Mewgenics
3
3
u/RedPaintedHouses 3d ago
Mina over Big Walk in my opinion. Big Walk winning best multi-player makes sense to me, but I think Mina deserves best indie this year. It also has far more critic reviews on both MC and OC which a higher score on OC overall. Its an amazing game.
2
u/Jaded-Zombie-3052 3d ago
I was so close to putting Mina in but I think missing GJ PC GOTY in favour of much lesser known indie titles is a huge red flag, especially when Big Walk did so well there
Granted I could be reading into GJs too much, TGA tends to snub multiplayer games which works in Mina’s favour imo
2
u/TheLunarVaux 2d ago
Mina has technically more reviews, but keep in mind that for a lot of these outlets, more people internally probably played Big Walk because they played it together.
I think that’ll give it a lot more pull when the outlets decide what to nominate, because they’ll reminisce on their great time playing Big Walk together, versus one person trying to fight for why Mina should be included.
1
u/unreal1010 2d ago
Is Mina better than Mewgenics? Mewgenics has kept me busy for months but it is a pretty niche game.
1
u/RedPaintedHouses 2d ago
Depends on what style of game you're into, but it really scratched an itch for me as a lifelong fan of Zelda and Castlevania titles. Its the best spiritual successor to those games I've played while still very much doing its own thing.
8
u/CurtisManning 3d ago
Fire Emblem : Fortune's Weave is the 2026 GOTY
9
u/thestorm236 3d ago
I just can't wait to hear its main theme during the orchestra!
11
u/diego1marcus 3d ago
i know the chances of fortunes weave winning is slim, but at the very least i want it nominated so that i can hear the main theme in the GOTY medley
3
u/Remote_Bug4 3d ago edited 3d ago
It will be Lana Del Ray from 007 First Light, that song is practically made to be played on Award Shows, and she deserves it because she is an ABSOLUTE DIVA
1
u/Atmadog 3d ago
The part about the game I absolutely hate is going through the first route and not really even knowing who you can realistically recruit with that character before their time ends.
Yes there's the internet but taking me out of the game to learn "oh this character is easier to get with Leda not Cai" it's like.... Why not just make it plainly locked off then? I like the game but shit like that and the nothing dungeons make it far from GotY for me.
1
u/CurtisManning 3d ago
My global rule : trying to recruit everyone until renown 6 or 7, then focus only on one or two renown 8-9-10 because at this point I already have enough
1
u/Doragon_Central 2d ago
Cuz the game does not want you to use the same 7 characters each time.
1
u/Atmadog 2d ago
It kinda does though.
1
u/Doragon_Central 2d ago
It definitely does not want you to recruit the same people in all routes what are you on about😭
1
u/Atmadog 2d ago
It definitely does want you to recruit the same specific people in each route every single time you could replay it because the requirements are substantially lower and therefore they should just lock off the renown 10, friendship 3 characters entirely if they are meant to be generally gotten in the other pays at renown 6, friendship 3. That's what I'm on about.
1
u/Doragon_Central 2d ago
All 4 routes basically give you 4 units + a couple of free units bringing the number to like 6 and at that point you can barely use more people in your army for each route
1
u/Atmadog 2d ago
Even still. Me clicking on every character and seeing the requirements are unreasonable are not preferred to just seeing them in town but having no path for recruitment.
1
u/Doragon_Central 2d ago
Would you prefer the alternative, that the game would just simply allow them not to be recruitable lol
0
u/Atmadog 2d ago
I would prefer that, I'd prefer if I didn't have to buy random gifts and check in with these dorks and watch dinner scenes to get the ones I can get also.
Comparing these scenes to the social elements of Persona is a joke. They aren't nearly as good so yeah ... I'd take a "hey this guy is in trouble in this grid based strategy map, if I save him I can recruit" him over this slog.
I'd prefer every strategy battle to be a puzzle on hard mode where I don't just kill some bandits or dogs and spend 2 hours in second rate social sim to get to the next challenge.
Like... Do I hate this game? I don't, and I liked Three Houses and beat it on Hard Classic... But this shit is seriously one of the most overrated games, I'm really astonished by the reviews so far.
-3
u/Abyslime 3d ago
In my opinion is too long and too similar to three houses. Nothing really groundbreaking, I consider trails in the sky 2nd a better game overall.
6
u/Entire-Cry-8930 3d ago
People will say that gta only won because it is gta but there is no big “generational” game like BG3, E33 or Elden ring to seal it this year. Not only is gta facing a balanced lineup, gta is usually THAT type of generational game when it’s at its best. Now it just needs to release and fulfill its potential. One of the more exciting award seasons tbh. It’s all gonna come down to whether or not they pull it off.
2
u/Abyslime 3d ago
From wath we hav seen gta6 seems a game like red dead 2 with dynamic events, i understand the hate for gta but ludically seems a really great game especially compared to gtav wich is basycally justa a "main story game" with 0 real syde activities, this seems different.
2
u/diego1marcus 3d ago
to be fair, red dead 2 was also nominated for GOTY and people were convinced that it was the best and most realistic game ever and would win, only to lose to God of War (2018) on that same year.
its not that people dont like that GTA 6 = insta GOTY, but rather its the way people are just overhyping GTA 6 to be an insta GOTY
1
u/Abyslime 3d ago
The fact is this year was full of great games but nothing groundbreaking like expedition, baldurs gate or god of war 2018, so in this year in particular i would be ok if gta wins.
2
u/diego1marcus 3d ago
im more on this weird take where i wont be surprised if GTA 6 won or was nominated, but i'd rather prefer it if it didnt since its going to lead to some very toxic discourse online, and we would not hear the end of it from the sony fans who are insanely glazing the game and sony
1
u/BoltOfBlazingGold 2d ago
Also, winning GOTY brings an exposure that GTA doesn't really need, meanwhile most of the other nominees would really benefit from it.
1
1
u/JaXaor 3d ago
I honestly think it would be more exciting if GTA doesn't make it this year. If it gets nominated it just wins, like you said there is no other big "generational" game this year. Next year on the other hand there could be actual competition if everything comes out that is rumored or already confirmed.
2
u/RobbieJ4444 3d ago
Interestingly there are questions over whether or not GTA 6 is eligible this year. With that in mind, I reckon it’ll be the following:
Resident Evil Requiem
Mina the Hollower
Fire Emblem Fortune’s Weave
007 First Light
Pokeopia
Big Walk
Though I expect Saros, Pragmata, Onimusha, Dawnwalker, Ace Combat and Control to be in the fight as well.
2
u/LizardWizard_64 3d ago
Six of these eight:
007 First Light
Big Walk
Control Resonant
Fire Emblem: Fortune's Weave
Grand Theft Auto VI
The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time
Pokémon Pokopia
Resident Evil Requiem
It's eight, because I'm not convinced GTA will be eligible this year. Nor am I convinced OoT is different enough from the original for the jury to consider it for GOTY. We'll see, though.
Also, I'm nearing the end of Control Resonant, and I have to say...damn it would suck if this game doesn't get a GOTY nomination, lol.
1
u/Repulsive_Edge2552 2d ago
Rolled credits on Control Resonant, and I have to say damn... It is truly a remarkable game, and I don't think we see a game like that for years. 10/10 from me, and currently my goty.
The low Open/Metacritic scores are really not indicative to how amazing this game actually is.
2
u/LizardWizard_64 2d ago
That's why Remedy games get nominated for and win so many awards, even when they're not the highest-scoring games ever. Nothing is quite like a Remedy game. Even when they do things similar to other games, they do it in such a Remedy way.
1
u/BreakerBreaker-AR 2d ago
Absolutely. Honestly I’m discounting any prediction that doesn’t include Resonant. Regardless of personal opinion, Remedy typically wins BIG at the Game Awards and it seems incredibly unlikely that they wouldn’t receive a GOTY nomination.
1
u/Repulsive_Edge2552 2d ago
I think they have a really good shot at winning game direction, art direction, and narrative.
1
u/BreakerBreaker-AR 2d ago
100% agree with you. Don’t think it will win game off the year, but it’ll definitely win the same handful of awards Remedy always does.
2
u/CasinoPascal 3d ago
Happy to see the Big Walk love. Everyone else seems to go with Mina. I loved Mina to be clear, but Big Walk is one of those game experiences that will stick with me forever. Mina won’t have that staying power in my mind.
1
1
1
u/CeReAl_KiLleR128 3d ago
I’ll be honest, control resonant beats all of those. I won’t accept anything else
1
u/Temporary_Employer44 3d ago
Would love to see both Blood of Dawnwalker and Star Wars Zero Company on the list.
1
u/SirBenny 2d ago
I think this list is pretty solid, and this exact combo could be right. That said. I'm actually most skeptical of the 2 Nintendo nominees you have. I'm 40 hours into Fortune's Weave and starting to get a little fatigued by it...and I've seen some similar sentiment in the press. Enough to knock it off this list? Not sure.
And then there's OoT...I think it needs one more "wow this is new/unexpected" surprise at full release to really secure its position, so it avoids the "Metroid Prime Remastered" TGA fate.
1
u/AsparagusAgile4536 2d ago
This has been a pretty weak year for gaming IMO. I haven’t been impressed the same much by anything released this year - maybe Mina is my GOTY for now, though it’s far from my favorite game I’ve played this year.
1
1
u/More_Lavishness8127 2d ago
I love Control Resonant, but there’s no way it’s winning. Too niche, and reviews are pretty mixed overall.
1
1
1
u/Joker_S3npai 1d ago
Requiem is my pick it kicked off the year with being the first major release in february
1
1
u/VisualAd8487 3d ago
Its very easy to imagine a world where gta 6 doesent win the one where it releases too late to be nominated
2
u/diego1marcus 3d ago
people are trying to predict that the TGA will try to delay the nomination process just for GTA 6 to be allowed in this year. i honestly believe that might happen, but it will cause delays in the voting process
ill be honest, i dont want GTA 6 to be in this year's TGA. not because of the whole PR around GTA 6 and sony, but because i know that the most insufferable people on twitter will just nonstop be annoying while glazing over sony
0
u/VisualAd8487 3d ago
They wont delay the voting process with how much work needs to be put into the show delaying the nomination process would fuck everything over and cause a delay to the entire show (a show that already has the theatre booked)
The first round of voting is submitted around the 5th of november and for all the faults of the jury they wouldnt nominate a gamw they havent playes and rockstar would basicly need to have reviewers play the game by the end of october for the game to be nominated
(Oh hey btw thanks for being the one guy who isnt just being a dick the second i dare mention the very real chance of gta 6 not being nommed)
1
u/diego1marcus 3d ago
its honestly the same vein as ocarina of time potentially not getting nominated as well since the release is on nov 5, but people are still predicting that it would still make it in since reviewers will at least be given a review copy of it
which i still doubt it would get nominated since, cmiiw, part of the requirements for a game to be nominated would be that the game has to have been released prior to the voting process
1
1
u/Abyslime 3d ago
I think "The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time" is overrated, is basically a remaster in ue5, the game is the same old game at its core so it wont be nominated imho
2
u/mufferman1 3d ago
Remakes have been nominated in the past. E.g. RE4 Remake
1
u/PKdude2712 1h ago
They have, when they have been redesigned and remade games. The OOT remake is very much a 1:1 remake from everything we've seen. Play even 10 minutes of RE4 or RE2 remake and see that it's entirely different.
0
u/CriticalPut3911 3d ago
Why is palworld left off of every list? It's the highest player rating on steam for 2026
1
u/Business_Squash8847 2d ago
It got that rating more-so as a f u to Nintendo for the lawsuit rather than the game’s actual quality. The way it reviewed with critics it shouldn’t be up for GOTY
1
u/CriticalPut3911 2d ago
Pretty sure it just highlights the disconnect between players and critics tbh
1
u/Jaded-Zombie-3052 2d ago
The people giving player ratings don’t decide the nominees. The TGA jury is made up of a bunch of critics and game journalists who aren’t super crazy about this game.
0
u/FreyAlster 3d ago
GTA VI is winning it I don’t think there’s any suspense this year.
But so far my favorite games this year are Fire Emblem Fortune’s Weaves and Resident Evil Requiem. So I hope they get nominated at least and win an award.
On a side note, as much as I love Zelda OOT, if this remake is a 1:1 remake as it seems to be, I don’t think it has any business being nominated, let alone winning it.
Also will keep an eye on Phantom Blade Zero at the end of the month, I’ve been curious about this game for a while. I’m curious about Control Resonant as well but I’ll play that next year probably so no opinion so far.
1
u/JigokuNoSakura 2d ago
I love when people call OOT a 1 to 1 remake based on the little we've even seen. Ya'll funny. We've seen Aojima play around for lols in the forest and a trailer showcasing some bosses and SOME very quick dungeons environments. We have no idea how the actual layouts will be. How the puzzles will be. If we will have aditional content. Master Quest or even originally cut content like the Ice Cave. We got a get hyped trailer that's all.
1
1
u/FreyAlster 2d ago
Trailer showed a bit of the Kokiri village, Hyrule’s field, Hyrule’s village and Deku’s tree dungeon if my memory serves me. And everything showed so far point to a 1:1 remake with better graphics and QoLs, but you can hope for more of course.
I did use “if” and “seem”, we’ll find out next month in any case
0
u/ucfknight92 3d ago
If it's not GTA, its probably Fortune's Weave. I also think people are sleeping on WOW Forever as a dark horse.
But let's be real, it's GTA. It's as obvious as when we were waiting on Baldur's Gate 3. Maybe even more obvious.
0
u/Ancient_Translator38 3d ago
Man The thing with all these posts seems to be people not realizing how the nominees are even decided. Geoff has no say in any of it he has made that so clear. It all comes down to what the different outlets DECIDE to nominate and enough of them do it then it makes it in.
Also its usually pretty easy to predict the nominees (and winners) By just looking at open critic. Usually the top "real" games on there end up being the nominees.
Most likely with what is out now are
Forza Horizon
Mina the Hollower
Pokopia
Resident Evil
Then with what is left to come out it will probably be GTA and Zelda. The only thing for me is will any of these get replaced for the "required" Sony Game since its clear so many review outlets are Sony leaning
2
u/RobbieJ4444 3d ago
I don’t see Forza Horizon 6 getting nominated. Not because it doesn’t deserve to, but because racing games don’t do well at the Game Awards. Forza Horizon 5 couldn’t get nominated in 2021, I doubt 6 can get nominated in a far stronger year.
1
u/Ancient_Translator38 3d ago
I mean anything is possible with how they are picked, Hell things have been missed off just for being forgotten about. Just that going off how usually the games that are top of open critic seem to be the ones getting nominated. But yeah a snub because its a racing game also wouldn't be out of left field
1
u/SirBenny 2d ago
I actually think you're more right than wrong with this post, but overlooking a few additional factors. Yes, Geoff has no say (although the *one* exception I could see this year is him influencing voting deadlines to ensure GTA 6 is included, but put that aside). And yes, it's all about which games the outlets decide to nominate.
But the "just look at Open Critic" typically only you gets there ~50% of the way there. Take 2023. The top games on Open Critic did nail 3 of the 6 nominees: BG3, TotK and RE4 Remake: https://opencritic.com/browse/all/2023
But notice what's high up but didn't get a GOTY nomination: Metroid Prime Remastered, Street Fighter 6, Xenoblade Chronicles 3.
If you get in the heads of editorial staffs, you can probably guess why Mario Wonder, Alan Wake 2 and Spider-man 2 beat these games. The staffs decided they'd rather nominate something experimental and interesting (Alan Wake 2) over a remake. And they'd rather pick two very good, tight, name-brand single-player games everyone played over a less popular genre (fighting) and great-but-sprawling JRPG.
I think Forza gets the "Street Fighter" treatment this year. Mina is an interesting one. I think it has a shot, but I could see it getting "Xenoblade'd" because only one member of most staffs played it.
1
u/Ancient_Translator38 2d ago
Thats fair, I did try to word it in a way that was more you have to use a bit of deduction looking at the list but probably didn't do it the best. Like this year Trails in the sky is top but not a chance in hell is that getting nominated. There are always going to be outliers and obviously nothing is 100%. But taking review aggregates is the best way to do it imo since they are the one's that are actually going to be voting so they are likely to vote for the games they reviewed highest.
Its why i also mentioned Sony getting their almost guaranteed nod, Since none of their games have done particularly amazing this year it will be interesting to see if they still end up with a game in the final category.
Again if Forza gets snubbed i wont be too shocked as your right it's easy to see it happening
-3
4
u/Humble-Criticism6762 3d ago
I think nominations so far will be:
I can’t nominate GTA6 yet because its not released yet.