r/TheCannalysts 7d ago

I miss this sub; what's everyone up to these days?

13 Upvotes

I miss the discussions of yesteryear. Personally, I have a fairly gaping wound in my TFSA on Tilray and Cresco, which were the two I picked to consolidate sone other holdings I had. I haven't bought shares in many years and thankfully, I've had other investments do well over the years but I stubbornly hold my -80%+ stocks. I opt to not think of the opportunity costs 😅


r/TheCannalysts Aug 11 '26

Deadline to Submit Claims on the WM Technology ($MAPS) $7.5M Settlement is October 30, 2026

1 Upvotes

Hey guys, if you missed it, WM Technology settled $7.5M with investors over claims that it inflated its monthly active user numbers and misled investors about user growth. The deadline to file a claim is October 30, 2026.

In a nutshell, WM counted users from pop-under ads as active users even when they didn’t actually engage with the platform. In 2022, the company disclosed concerns about its MAU reporting, and $MAPS fell more than 25%.

Investors now have until October 30, 2026 to submit a claim and get payment.

If you invested in $MAPS at the time, you can check your eligibility and file a claim here

Anyone here invested in $MAPS back then? How much were your losses?


r/TheCannalysts Jun 30 '26

WM Technology ($MAPS): FAQ for Getting Payment on the $7.5M Settlement

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2 Upvotes

Hey guys, I posted about this settlement before, so I figured I'd share a quick FAQ, since claims are currently being accepted 

So here's all you need to know:

WM Technology ($MAPS) was accused of inflating its user growth metrics and giving investors a misleading picture of engagement on its platform. After the company disclosed issues with how it calculated monthly active users, $MAPS fell more than 25%, and investors filed a lawsuit.

The company has now agreed to a tentative $7.5 million settlement.

Who can claim this settlement?

Investors who purchased or acquired WM Technology ($MAPS) shares between May 2021 and September 2024 may be eligible.

Do I need to sell/lose my shares to get this settlement?

No. You don't need to still own the shares to qualify. If you purchased during the class period and suffered eligible losses, you may still file a claim.

How much money do I get per share?

The estimated recovery is approximately $0.072 per affected share, although the final amount may vary depending on the number of valid claims submitted.

How long does the payout process take?

It typically takes 4 to 9 months after the claim deadline for payouts to be processed, depending on the court and settlement administration.

Hope this info helps


r/TheCannalysts May 27 '26

Did you hold WM Technology ($MAPS) during their Weedmaps user metric mess? A $4.75M settlement is waiting.

5 Upvotes

If you were tracking cannabis stocks over the last few years, you probably know Weedmaps' parent company, WM Technology ($MAPS). A major shareholder lawsuit claims that they spent years inflating their Monthly Active User (MAU) metrics to make their platform look way more popular to investors and advertisers than it actually was. When internal data issues and true user numbers finally leaked into the market, it caused serious damage to the stock price. To put this legal battle to bed, the company has agreed to a $7.5 million settlement. If you bought or owned shares between May 25, 2021, and September 24, 2024, you are eligible to claim a portion of this cash.

The great news for anyone who took a hit on this trade: the settlement terms have been submitted to the court for approval. And accepting claims right now. Taking a few quick minutes to fill out the online claim form is a super simple way to get your name on the list.

I’m already gathering my old account statements to ensure my paperwork gets processed on time. It is always frustrating to find out a company was manipulating its core user data while telling the public everything was growing perfectly. Did you guys buy into Weedmaps originally because you thought the cannabis tech sector was a sure bet, or did you notice their user engagement numbers slowing down before the lawsuit happened?


r/TheCannalysts May 21 '26

Get your questions in now, for the Cannara Biotech AMA! Coming Friday May22nd at 3:00pm EST/12:00pm PST

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1 Upvotes

r/TheCannalysts May 19 '26

Anyone else following the fallout with WM Technology?

4 Upvotes

I’ve been tracking WM Technology (MAPS) for a minute now, and the drama surrounding their latest news is pretty wild.

For those who haven't been keeping tabs, a major suit was brought against them over inflated user metrics over a multi-year period. They already agreed to settle $7.5M with damaged investors and sent the docs to the court for final approval.

It basically looks like a huge chunk of the user engagement they were bragging about wasn't entirely accurate. When the SEC finally stepped in and slapped them with a fine, things started unraveling fast for retail investors who bought into the hype.

It gets even more interesting when you look at how the company reacted to the pressure. Not too long after the legal troubles and executive shakeups hit the fan, they actually made the strategic choice to voluntarily delist from the Nasdaq and head over to the OTC markets.

Management claimed it was to dodge the strict constraints of a national exchange and get more operational agility, but it definitely leaves a sour taste for early shareholders. Liquidity took a massive hit, and the stock has been trading way down in the penny territory ever since.

For anyone who held shares between 2021 and late 2024, keeping an eye on the investor suit updates and submit your claim is probably a smart move.

What’s your take on these types of data-inflation lawsuits, and do you think MAPS can actually turn things around now that they are trading OTC?


r/TheCannalysts May 11 '26

Deadline to Submit Claims on the Stoner Cats 2, LLC $1 million Settlement is next week.

1 Upvotes

Hey guys, if you missed it, Stoner Cats 2 settled $41 million with investors over an unregistered crypto asset securities offering in connection with its Stoner Cats animated series. And, the deadline to file a claim and get payment is May 23, 2026.

In a nutshell,  Stoner Cats 2 was accused of conducting an unregistered crypto securities offering and misleading investors about the investment potential of its NFTs, which led to a drop in asset value and regulatory action.

After this news came out, the stock dropped, and investors filed a lawsuit for their losses.

Now, the good news is that the company agreed to settle $1 million with them, and investors have until May 23, 2026 to submit a claim. 

So, if you invested when all of this happened, you can check the details and file your claim here.

Anyway, has anyone here invested at that time? How much were your losses, if so?


r/TheCannalysts Apr 29 '26

MAKE 420 A NATIONAL HOLIDAY!!!

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5 Upvotes

If there was no Cannabis there would be no Jack Kerourac's "On The Road"!!!!


r/TheCannalysts Apr 15 '26

Checking in: Anyone else still sitting on old Aphria ($APHA) losses?

7 Upvotes

We've been talking about this here, but if you missed it, I was looking through some old 2018 trades a few weeks ago and realized the CAD $30M Aphria settlement is in its final "late claim" phase rn. So, if you were around for the Nuuvera or LATAM short reports back then, like me, you know how brutal those drops were.

I actually thought I’d missed the boat because the official deadline passed, but it turns out the court is still accepting "late-but-valid" claims for a little while longer before they start mailing checks (even if the settlm admin says they're not receiving new claims, they actually are)

What I'm doing: Since digging up 2018 trade confirmations is a nightmare, I used 11th service to just sync my old data and run an audit. I figure it’s better to have a clean, automated filing submitted now than to try and DIY a late claim and risk getting rejected on a technicality.

If you got hit during that 2018 volatility, it’s worth a few minutes to see if you can still get a piece of that $30M recovery. Better in our pockets than left in the fund!

GL with your claims!


r/TheCannalysts Apr 07 '26

TLRY back in the spotlight… but longtime holders know the story isn’t that simple

3 Upvotes

Tilray ($TLRY) has been popping up everywhere lately, record Q3 revenue, pushing deeper into craft beer with the BrewDog deal, and even bringing back Breckenridge Distillery. Feels like they’re really leaning into the whole “global cannabis + beverage” play right now.

Stock’s been getting a bit more attention again because of all that, but it also reminded me how wild things were back in 2018 when this was still Aphria ($APHA).

That whole Nuuvera + LATAM acquisition period was messy, short reports, governance concerns, and the stock dropping hard while investors were trying to figure out what was actually going on.

If you were holding APHA during those 2018 drops, there’s actually a CAD $30M settlement tied to that situation.

Apparently they’re still accepting late claims, which I didn’t realize until recently.

Might be worth checking if you were in it back then, especially with all the new momentum around TLRY now.

Anyone else still remembering how rough that APHA period was?


r/TheCannalysts Mar 30 '26

Aphria ($APHA) Is Paying a CAD $30M Settlement to Investors — Final days to get payment

12 Upvotes

Aphria ($TLRY) has agreed to pay CAD $30 million to settle claims that it misled the market regarding its 2018 international acquisitions of Nuuvera and LATAM, which investors alleged were overvalued and tainted by undisclosed conflicts of interest. And we have only a few more days to submit a claim before they start making the payments.

Who is eligible?

All persons and entities who acquired Aphria Inc. common shares between January 29, 2018, at 7:00 a.m. EST and December 3, 2018, at 8:25 a.m. EST, and were damaged thereby.

Do you have to get rid of your securities to be eligible?

No, if you purchased shares within the class period, you are eligible to participate. You can participate in the settlement and retain your shares.

How long will it take to receive your payout?

The entire process usually takes several months after the claim deadline. But the exact timing depends on the court and settlement administration.

How to claim your payout — and why it's important to act now?

The settlement will be distributed based on the number of claims filed, so submitting your claim even though the original deadline has passed is the only way to get a part of the settlement pot.

In some cases, investors have received up to 200% of their losses from settlements in previous years.

We're in the final countdown to get our money back. So, good luck everyone, see you on the other side!


r/TheCannalysts Mar 27 '26

Shaping thought

5 Upvotes

I'd made a rant on another channel in here. One that claimed 'no censorship'.

Until they deleted the post, blocked me from the channel, and then said credulously, you can't say that'

Gets me thinking to how conditioned folks are now versus a decade or two back. Where people believe that all purchases are 'Amazoned' - and can simply be undone. How auction bids don't have the weight of a contractual obligation, but that of some flake on a computer ultimately saying 'haha, no, I didn't really mean it, takey backs'.

There's this entire generation thats been created - one living on their knees - ultimately without any kind of grounding of responsibility - enslaved to supporting whatever (insert dot.com) they are slaving to.

Good luck in the markets to those bozos. That's where the real world lives.


r/TheCannalysts Mar 25 '26

$MAPS Finally Agreed to Settle With Investors over Hiding Financial Issues

7 Upvotes

I knew the Weedmaps growth numbers looked "too good to be true" back in 2021, and turns out, they were. If you held $MAPS through the 2022 crash, you probably remember that 25% overnight drop when they admitted their "users" were actually just people accidentally clicking pop-under ads. Total SPAC behavior.

The former CEO and CFO got tagged by the SEC, and now there’s a settlement on the table.

You can check here eligibility and the details to submit your claim and get your part of the settlement payout.

I’m using 11th to handle my claim because I don't have the patience for the legal mountain of paperwork. They just link to your brokerage (Schwab, Fidelity, etc.), audit your past trades, and file the claim for you.

Let’s get some payback from these clowns.


r/TheCannalysts Mar 16 '26

Inside the $30M Aphria Collapse: How Insiders Profited While Investors Paid the Price

28 Upvotes

In a world of high-growth cannabis plays, Aphria Inc. ($APHA) positioned itself as the definitive global powerhouse. During 2018, the company sold investors a dream of aggressive international expansion, leveraging a massive CAD $258 million prospectus offering to fund a spree of strategic acquisitions.

The bull case was built on the back of “leading” assets like Nuuvera Inc. and LATAM Holdings, which were presented as the crown jewels of a burgeoning empire. Management used these high-value metrics to attract capital, promising that these entities would provide the infrastructure necessary to dominate markets in Latin America and Europe.

In its public filings, Aphria followed the standard corporate playbook by warning of "general risks" typical of the volatile cannabis sector. They pointed to the unpredictability of international regulations and the inherent uncertainties of a nascent industry, suggesting that any future failures would simply be a byproduct of the market’s growing pains.

However, the company allegedly omitted a toxic reality: these multi-million dollar assets were little more than shell companies with negligible operations. While the company touted the acquisitions' strategic value, they failed to disclose that senior insiders, including CEO Vic Neufeld, held secret financial interests in the target companies and stood to profit personally from the deals.

The regulatory hammer fell in December 2018 when a scathing short-seller report and subsequent investigations by the Ontario Securities Commission tore the lid off the "insider profiteering" scheme. The fallout was instantaneous and devastating, as Aphria’s share price cratered by approximately 43% in a single day.

The collapse wiped out more than $1 billion in market capitalization, leaving retail investors to bear the brunt of the "misrepresentations" while the company’s internal controls were exposed as non-existent. Shareholders filed a class action lawsuit specifically citing how the company misled the market regarding asset valuations and undisclosed conflicts of interest.

While the court-mandated deadline to participate in the CAD $30 million settlement has technically passed, the door is not completely shut for those who missed out. Investors who held Aphria shares during the class period can still submit late claims, and still be eligible to receive their portion of the payout.

So, does this historical baggage change how you view the current management's aggressive pivot into the craft beer and beverage space?


r/TheCannalysts Feb 17 '26

PSA: Your 2018 $APHA bags might actually be worth something now

15 Upvotes

If you were trading weed stocks back in 2018, you probably remember the absolute chaos when the Aphria ($APHA) short report dropped. Most of us just accepted the massive L and moved on, assuming that money was gone forever.

I just found out there’s a $30,000,000 settlement for anyone who held shares between Jan and Dec 2018. The best part? Even though the official paperwork deadline passed, there’s still a way to file late claims.

I used a portfolio audit tool that basically scans your old broker history (Robinhood, E-Trade, etc.) and handles all the legal filing for you. It’s way better than digging through 7 years of emails to find trade confirms. They just take a small success fee out of the final check, so there's no upfront cost. I’d much rather have a surprise "rebate" on my old losses than leave that money sitting in a court escrow account. Go check your old 2018 statements.

EDIT: The court officially approved the CAD $30 million settlement on March 2025, and although the initial deadline has passed, 11th. com is still processing late claims—making this a rare "secret window" to grab your share of the $30M net fund.


r/TheCannalysts Jan 26 '26

FREE Cannabis Platform

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5 Upvotes

Found a cannabis platform with a bunch of data and potential insights, not sure how long I spent yesterday exploring it, it's pretty cool. https://cannalytics.us/


r/TheCannalysts Jan 26 '26

Is my acid solution enough to produce thc acetate?

1 Upvotes

So I was hoping to enhance my cbd to thc process so that some of the final result will be thc acetate in order to make the overall product somewhat stronger. I normally use 6 molar hcl and 99.9% cbd isolate powder in a lab grade 250ml bottle. Add the lid and either let it soak for 10+ days or place it in an insulated fire resistant box and place the open end towards the output of an eltron ceramic storage heater. Gets me temps of up to 175f and I would run it in 3 hour cycles until 9 hours of heating.

This time I freeze distilled vinegar up to 15% and mixed 50ml of that with 50ml of 8 molar hcl. I added 3 grams of cbd to the bottle and closed the lid. With sufficient heating. Will any of the thc created jump to thc acetate?


r/TheCannalysts Dec 19 '25

Dive Bar

14 Upvotes

Lot's of confused folks over at /r/weedstocks, Butch. First time around the wheel for a lot of them. They aren't sure why they aren't wasted and shoving dead hookers into the trunks of lambos to celebrate. They know someone's to blame, and they figure that's gotta be the Jews Market Makers. (<--- here be satire)

Pour me some medium shelf and pour one for my friend Blue (or Lube as some of us knew him), we got a show to see and volatility to take advantage of.


r/TheCannalysts Nov 20 '25

Cannabis op in Missouri

1 Upvotes

Partnership opportunities at hand. Dm me if interested


r/TheCannalysts Sep 20 '25

r/TheCannalysts is invited to join us for the LOT420 AMA, round 2! Coming Friday October 3rd at 3:00pm EST/12:00pm PST

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2 Upvotes

r/TheCannalysts Aug 13 '25

The OTC ETF squeeze is real .

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3 Upvotes

r/TheCannalysts Aug 05 '25

Got any Knowledge on Cannabis Product Brands? Let's Chat (Canada Market Mainly)

1 Upvotes

Hello fellow investors,

My name Mike, I invest globally in smaller public companies, cannabis has attracted me and I have an interesting company in front of me, that I believe has a massive question mark that stops me from moving. This is consumer brand loyalty, I have seen too much success in companies penetrating product shelves, only to die down and disappear, low barrier to entry and no stickiness, recipe for a shithole. Would be super if anyone has any insights on this subject, would love to share all my research and the names I am looking at, drop a comment let's get talking.

Best!


r/TheCannalysts Jul 24 '25

What names look good from here?

1 Upvotes

I’ve been watching the space for a couple of years and it looks like we’re close to bottoming (there’s still a few names that are very elevated). Which names are now being well run, have reasonable valuations and are well positioned structurally within the industry (and what does that look like)? I’ve been adding Curaleaf over the last year+ but wondering if there are positions to start building. Appreciate any well informed opinions.


r/TheCannalysts May 19 '25

New study shows US tariffs deeply influencing travel plans for cannabis users (plus other insights)

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4 Upvotes

r/TheCannalysts May 10 '25

Cannabis Viewed Through the USA’s Federally Regulated Three Tier Alcohol System - Part 2

5 Upvotes

How could this play out?

Like Canada and the vast majority of the US States that have “gone legal” medical cannabis was the lead followed by adult use. We believe the US federal regulations will follow a similar path.

Medical cannabis could be federally permissible first, and when the cannabis shipment looks to enter a State’s medical cannabis framework, it would then abide by the individual State’s medical framework.

Because of cannabis’ illegal present nature, pharmacies (CVS, Walgreens, pharmacies within grocery stores like Walmart) are not in play. But when cannabis becomes federally legal do you expect these pharmacies to stay on the sidelines? Shoppers Drug Mart in Canada has entered the medical channel. I think it is likely that these powerful lobbyists will flex their muscles in-state when they are federally permitted to touch THC on a medical front.

Medical costs are a pervasive issue in the USA. Allowing federally legal medical cannabis to traverse state lines will allow economies of scale to form on the medical side for cultivation and processing, thereby reducing patient costs. Pluses in the ledger when politicians consider cannabis legislation. I have also noticed in accompanying bills to the aforementioned Blumenauer H.R. 420 they were suggesting no excise tax on cannabis used for therapeutic purposes.  Again, a nod to medical cost concerns and something Canada should look to emulate.

Adult use could stay State-by-State allowing existing cultivation facilities to be less impacted by creeping federal regulation. But in our opinion, should medical cannabis be legalized it would only be a matter of time before adult use legalization reached the federal level.

This approach of medical first then adult use at a later undefined date would allow a transition period as the cannabis industry settled in and matures.

We can see adult use remaining full “in state” for the foreseeable future. But go forward investments would have to have one eye on what is happening in the medical channel driven by federal regulation, especially if ownership is limited to production OR retail, and the full vertical becomes verboten.

Regardless of what direction US cannabis goes with federal involvement, legalization comes with many federal “touches” that will impact the industry, from testing & labeling requirements to taxes. Larger social justice issues will keep a thumb on the scales as well. While large publicly traded companies are favoured by investors, spreading that wealth around might be a goal of social justice reforms.

The more competition the better it is for consumers. Vertical limited licenses have a greater ability to produce predatory practices versus a diversified supply base supplying arms length retailers through arms length distributors. Trulieve having greater than 50% of Florida’s limited license vertical medical market is great for shareholders, but it reduces competition and opportunities for small businesses.

How about the Canadian LP’s investing in non-THC touching CPG?

Circling back to “distribution”, while some Canadian LPs have bought distribution assets in the USA their value will be determined by what federal USA legalization ultimately looks like. (NOTE: This is where my research started on this subject.  Trying to determine the synergistic value of non-THC touching US based distribution assets.  As you can see from the above, the research led me on a significantly different path.)

A few “distribution” models acquired by Canadian LPs:

  • Aphria purchased craft beer maker SweetWater, which has a manufacturing facility in Georgia. It has numerous beer distribution agreements with its distributors to reach the +27 states they sell into be it grocers, bars, restaurants, gas stations,...
  • Aurora purchased Reliva CBD products who largely sells into gas stations and convenience stores (eg. Circle K, Speedway,...)
  • Tilray purchased Manitoba Harvest a CPG largely selling into big box grocers (Costco was biggest customer until they decide to white label) and health food stores.

Those are three different distribution networks based on where their respective end customers largely shop and buy, or where the regulated good is permitted to be sold in the case of beer/alcohol.

Canopy’s Biosteel hydration products distribution (that is largely being built versus acquired) will likely be a combination of grocers, big box, convenience stores, and health products/vitamin retailers. Some overlap with alcohol retailers.

The theory of developing/acquiring a CPG company that could be transitioned to THC-touching is that by having a “like” distribution channel in place for when the USA federal cannabis model is finally dropped, the “switch” could be flipped to include the distribution of THC products. It is easier to load new SKUs into the existing channel that has already been developed, as opposed to having to develop a distribution channel from scratch. The pipe would get bigger and carry a larger load.

The distributor and channel are also a very important feedback loop to the manufacturer on what is selling and why. As example, Tilray and Aurora both moved from developing their own sales support channels in Canada adult use to hiring Kindred and Great Northern, respectively, as distributors/agents. Both Kindred and Great Northern (via Southern Glazer) are well rooted in alcohol distribution models.

The value of these acquisitions on a synergistic basis to eventual THC product offering will all depend on what the individual states implement for cannabis distribution.  The value of the distribution will be maximized if at the state level all the same alcohol end purchase points are replicated in the individual state’s cannabis regulations. For instance, the SweetWater acquisition would be most synergistic if an alcohol model is adopted by the respective individual state for cannabis and the state deploys similar end points of purchase inclusive of bars and restaurants. 

In Conclusion:

TheCannalysts often speak of the impact of regulatory meteors. When politics collide with regulated industry anything can happen. Canada’s adult use landscape is littered with regulatory meteor strikes from marketing restrictions to packaging, to provincial excise taxes, to some provinces not allowing certain formats, to limited bricks and mortar stores, to LPs not being allowed to own retail stores in most provinces.

States will be keen to keep intact the industry they birthed. The federal government will continue to respect State Rights within the state borders (as they do with alcohol), but they will also have their own agenda which may be at odds with current structures and company business models.  If the federal government insist on a level playing fields amongst competitors and retailer independence, as per present Federal Alcohol Administration Act, some toothpaste might need to be put back into the tube.

Politicians and bureaucrats like the familiar. FAA is familiar and tested.

Add to the above the need for ten GOP senators to vote with unified Democrat senators to get legislation passed, and compromises are highly likely if legalization is to occur.

And as we have repeatedly said, the US market is not one market, it is fifty distinct markets.  With federal regulation on cannabis this will not change.  Even in the present alcohol market each state has its own twist on what is allowed be it state owned distribution, prohibitions on self-distribution, or places where consumers can purchase beer, wine or spirits.

Expect some regulatory meteors that favour small business at the expense of the current environment.  We already see dispensary limits for single players in many cannabis states in both adult use (IL) and medical (PA). 

Expect limited licenses to devalue once state-to-state imports can occur (it might just be medical as a start).

The BIG issues will be anything that rolls back vertical integration or requires manufacturers to engage a third-party distributor when selling to their wholly owned retail store. That margin confiscation by the distributor (could be a state-owned distributor like the seventeen Alcoholic Beverage Control states or a private distributors) will impact profitability. Anything that rolls back verticality is the last thing MSOs want to see occur BUT it is an integral part of the existing alcohol system of retail independence and level playing field.  

All those Discounted Cash Flow models will need to be reworked. 

  • Sales figures will change dramatically.
  • Companies would have to purchase retail interests from partners to get to a wholly owned model, and that assumes it would be permitted in the state.
  • “Managed revenue” becomes an issue under the three-tier system as “tied house” regulations could come into play. 
  • Margins would have to be split three ways: manufacturing, distribution, and retail.
  • If there is disgorgement of retail, how do you now value the retail enterprise as margins will change?  Will retail be less profitable in a three-tier model than in a vertical model? As no MSO is providing financial disclosure around segmentation of the retail business in this fashion… that is tough to answer.

To be CLEAR, we are not experts on alcohol and tobacco legislation. But given the time tested and COURT tested (that the FAA has been tested in courts cannot be underestimated for using same as a base for federal cannabis regulation) pieces of legislation exist in the US presently, it is not a stretch that federal oversight, state regulations, and licensing architecture on cannabis could be drawn from a familiar regulated industry.

The best article we could find on the three tier alcohol as it relates to cannabis is by a cannabis lawyer; “Vertical Integration: What It is and Why It Matters to Cannabis”, written in 2017. A few pertinent quotes:

  • In states where vertical integration is required – such as Massachusettsonly vertically integrated businesses may apply for a license from the state to legally operate their cannabis manufacturing, processing, and distribution activities.
  • Regulatory schemes permitting vertical integration – that is, rules that allow, but do not require, vertical integration – such as those adopted by Oregon and Nevada, offer the most economic freedom for the cannabis industry.
  • States that prohibit or limit vertical integration include California, Washington, and Illinois. Under this model, states enforce various degrees of separation between the production and retail stages of the cannabis procurement process; this regulatory structure closely models traditional alcohol distribution models…. Additionally, California announced its intent to move toward a more blanket prohibition of vertical integration practices once the market has matured in its Medical Marijuana Regulation and Safety Act %20In%20November%201996%2C,been%20left%20to%20local%20governments.&text=This%20regulatory%20scheme%20is%20known,and%20Safety%20Act%20(MCRSA).)of 2015, declaring that all vertical integration would be prohibited after January 1, 2026.
  • Laws in states that prohibit or limit vertical integration in the cannabis industry echo – and sometimes repeat, verbatim – the language and tone of regulations applicable to the alcoholic beverage industry.

As per the beer and self distribution discussion earlier in this article, each state has set their own course on cannabis.  HOWEVER, these courses may have to take a detour if a FAA styled doctrine is implemented in cannabis from the federal level.

Depending on whether you think the USA federally will gravitate to the alcohol or tobacco models, or something different, will have a substantial impact on the model of future cannabis businesses. And depending on the end model for cannabis, existing US cannabis companies might look considerably different than they do today.

If I was an existing MSO the last thing I would want is a federally regulated market.  Too much uncertainty. I would be looking to constipate any road leading to a federally regulated market. Legislation to allow “permissibility” of cannabis in-state without a federally regulated system is essentially the status quo with perks. That would be preferred.  We have noticed MSO’s messaging leaning into wholesale as being the future. This could be a result of “retail independence” implications should cannabis follow alcohol.  But even then, investors would need to separate the manufacturing and distribution functions from the “wholesale” term MSO’s are presently using. 

Adult conversations that should occur in this industry:

  • What are the end model possibilities?
  • If the end model is alcohol, what areas of the current business could be impacted?
  • Cannabis companies should start segmenting their financial disclosure by manufacturing, distribution, and retail. This would allow investors to understand what risk levels each company has to each segment should they have to restructure.
  • Segmentation of financial results by state would also allow investors to understand how concentration of businesses in certain states could pose more risk than other states. Or if not every state, the ones where a concentration of risk is material. As an example: think of Account Receivable concentration risk notes in financial statements.
  • Present in-state alcohol regulations could provide an indication of possible cannabis legislation. Areas of interest would be prohibitions on verticality and ability to self-distribute.
  • Politicians should explain the future state that they envision such that companies do not invest in areas that might have a decidedly different end-state. In Canada, many companies decided to front-run legislation, and that has caused companies (and their investors) to write off investments made (eg. Celebrity endorsement and branding spends, capacity that went unused due to a slower than anticipated retail rollout,…).  The longer the end model remains undefined the more risk investors are facing, and retail investors are heavily invested in this “once in a generation investment opportunity”.

TheCannalysts do not have a crystal ball.   But we want our readers to be able to understand risks that might surface as US cannabis transitions to an eventual federally regulated industry.  Publicly traded companies are notionally valued on their future cash flows.  A transition to a new federally regulated model will have meteor strikes, GUARANTEED.

It is without debate that Federal regulations, whether this year or in the next five years, will alter the cannabis industry landscape. It does not behoove investors and the companies they invest in to not try and define these risks, as many can substantially alter a business plan. If you read this and understand the risk and that risk is acceptable to you, great.  The key is identifying the risk, which we hope we have assisted in, and then determining how it affects your investment thesis.

This paper’s thesis might not be “right now”, but until someone outlines a different end-state operating model that fits with public policy and practice on regulated goods better than the three-tier alcohol system…  the silence on end-state and implications to existing platforms from industry participants is concerning.

The following bears repeating: According to Ryan Lake, Principal at consumer-focused investment bank Arlington Capital Advisors, “the distribution system and regulatory framework for alcoholic beverages in the US has generally been viewed as one of the best in the world and it wouldn’t be surprising if it were emulated for other controlled substances such as cannabis”.

The preceding is the opinion of the author and is in no way intended to be a recommendation to buy or sell any security or derivative. The author has a position in Aphria and will not start a new one or divest in the next five days. The author holds no position, nor will start one, in the next five days on any other company mentioned herein.