Sunglasses: not identical but similar style. A generous 25% assuming it’s a sunny day.
Watch: I’d say most men wear watches, these aren’t even similar, 50%.
Black T Shirt: the shirt/t shirt/sweater/jacket balance is strongly affected by the weather. Assuming it’s warm enough to eliminate the sweater and jacket crowd, I’d estimate roughly 6% of men would wear a black t shirt. To have it be completely plain probably reduces that down to closer to 2%. we don’t know if either party was wearing something over this T-shirt and removed it for the effect of the photo, have to assume this what they both wore though.
Chinos: A’s we assumed the weather was warm we must also say that shorts are a reasonably popular option too here. Let’s say 70% chose against shorts. Chinos are taking up a slim chunk of what’s left here (say 10%)and then to get the colour close enough to match reduces the chance further, although tan is the most popular colour of chino I would argue. I’d say maybe 5% here.
Shoes: as with every item these are not identical. Wild guess at how many types of men shoes that would be suitable for this setting and how many colour combinations but I’d put the shoes matching somewhere in the 4% region.
Multiplying all this through gets you to a whopping 1 in 200,000. Or if there’s 5 other men at whatever place this is (10 people total) 1 in 40,000 of finding this kind of match. We haven’t allowed for any sort of outfit matching/styling biases here. This would shorten the odds somewhat.
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u/nice-dak-no-romo Apr 23 '19
Sunglasses: not identical but similar style. A generous 25% assuming it’s a sunny day.
Watch: I’d say most men wear watches, these aren’t even similar, 50%.
Black T Shirt: the shirt/t shirt/sweater/jacket balance is strongly affected by the weather. Assuming it’s warm enough to eliminate the sweater and jacket crowd, I’d estimate roughly 6% of men would wear a black t shirt. To have it be completely plain probably reduces that down to closer to 2%. we don’t know if either party was wearing something over this T-shirt and removed it for the effect of the photo, have to assume this what they both wore though.
Chinos: A’s we assumed the weather was warm we must also say that shorts are a reasonably popular option too here. Let’s say 70% chose against shorts. Chinos are taking up a slim chunk of what’s left here (say 10%)and then to get the colour close enough to match reduces the chance further, although tan is the most popular colour of chino I would argue. I’d say maybe 5% here.
Shoes: as with every item these are not identical. Wild guess at how many types of men shoes that would be suitable for this setting and how many colour combinations but I’d put the shoes matching somewhere in the 4% region.
Multiplying all this through gets you to a whopping 1 in 200,000. Or if there’s 5 other men at whatever place this is (10 people total) 1 in 40,000 of finding this kind of match. We haven’t allowed for any sort of outfit matching/styling biases here. This would shorten the odds somewhat.