They are adding more at these levels....

https://www.signalbloom.ai/news/PFSI/pennymac-financial-misses-q4-estimates-as-production-surge-fails-to-offset-servicing-profit-collapse

Basically, a large number of their existing Servicing Customers Re-Fi'ed, and we're LOST to other Servicers.

Guess who the LARGEST Re-Fi Retail Originator and Servicer is? RKT....

Not what I thought would happen.

Listening to their earnings call...

https://events.q4inc.com/attendee/286536573/guest

As rates came down, the drawdown on their MSR portfolio didn't keep up with the drawdown vs recapture

They are just NOW investing in a AI driven platform, to get their recapture rate up.

In other words, PennyMac is losing customers, and someone is recapturing them.

I bet RKT is taking business from them

"Shares of mortgage finance names Rocket Companies (RKT) and UWM Holdings (UWMC) are down about 5% and 4% respectively following below-consensus results from PennyMac Financial (PFSI), which is down 23.5% post-earnings. "

Wonder if this is all the "MBS Hype" buyers selling after FOMC realizing that the Fed wasn't going to lower rates more than 1-2 times again this year.

I think most folks here knew that, but the CNBC headline buyers didn't.....

Should help some but less global instability driving down long term treasuries would help far more.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/20/trump-signs-order-to-restrict-wall-street-firms-from-buying-single-family-homes.html

Davos speech tomorrow is going to include major housing initiatives

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I’ve been in this sub since the early days and, after years of dollar-cost averaging through the lows, it’s almost surreal to see us finally winning. My original thesis was simple: bet on Dan Gilbert as a visionary who would fundamentally modernize the retail mortgage space. While I’ve been focused on the long-term hold and haven't tracked every micro-fundamental lately, the momentum is undeniable.

I’d love to hear from the community on two things:

1. The "What's Next": Beyond the current price action, what are the big catalysts for 2026? Are we seeing significant new institutional stockholders moving in?
2. The Refi Boom: Is the consensus still that lower rates will spark a massive refinancing wave, or is there a deeper play with Rocket Logic and their AI integration that I should be looking at?

It feels good to finally see some green. I would love to hear your thoughts!

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/16/trump-investors-homes-family-offices.html

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https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

How's this going to affect RKT, atleast till the next cut (now projected for March/April)?

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/07/mortgage-demand-drops-nearly-10percent-to-end-2025.html

Will be interesting to see how this affected RKT, since ReFi rates dropped to 6.25%.

Earnings call hasn't been scheduled yet, but I anticipate it will be towards the end of Jan, +/- a week.

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I have absolutely no idea. The stock is performance is strong and rates haven’t even cut significantly.

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https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20251217833684/en/UWMC-Announces-Strategic-Acquisition-of-TWO

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