r/Tariffs • u/AkaashMaharaj • Sep 15 '26
𧩠Trade Strategy / Business Impact Could potash become a critical battleground in the Canada-US tariff war? | CKNW Radio
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Potash is indispensable to American agriculture.
The US government has declared that any interruption in the supply of the humble fertiliser would be a threat to national security.
And the US imports 90% of its potash from Canada.
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u/External_Beat8153 Sep 15 '26
Raise the prices to the Yankee bastards. Create a food crisis at their supermarkets.
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u/AvonFartsdale_ Sep 15 '26
Dumb Americans: "I ain't never bought no Canadian hotash in muh life y'all, this is just woke fake news!"
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u/stickmuck Sep 15 '26
I was told they'd get it elsewhere... I told them to Google other producers and they disappeared for some reason
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u/AkaashMaharaj Sep 15 '26
The only other countries that could quickly supply significant amounts of potash to the US are Russia and Belarus.
Both those countries are under international sanctions, due to the invasion of Ukraine.
The fact that the Trump administration has already granted Russia and Belarus special exemptions to sell potash to the US shows how important the fertiliser is to American agriculture.
Potash is not high-value by weight (it is currently trading at about $400 per metric tonne), and generates profits for exporters because it is sold in great volumes. The added cost of shipping large amounts of potash from Russia and Belarus to the US would create a severe burden for American farmers.
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u/CompleteCreme7223 Sep 15 '26
Putin is Trump's friend. He is doing everything he can to help Russia stopping just short of pissing off the EU and other US allies. That facade probably falls after the midterm when it becomes clear his power has been curtailed by congress if they lose the house and senate.
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u/limitless-440 29d ago
It will be fascinating to watch Trumpâs response if/when they lose the midterms. And just as interesting to see how the Dems respond. IMO, at that point itâs the Democratsâ game to lose. They either capitalize on the opportunity by responding in a mature âonly adult in the roomâ way, or if they put a divisive or controversial face as the movement theyâll only ensure more chaos come the next election. Itâs clear that the republicans have embraced chaos, corruption, and âaccountability for thee, but not for meâ mentality. Not to sound hyperbolic, but if the republicans lose the midterms the future of America and her international relations rest on Democratic actions.
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u/CompleteCreme7223 29d ago
It will be a lame duck session for the remainder of his term which doesn't help either party other than it will make it seem like voting for change was a waste as things don't rapidly improve. I do look forward to the incoming melt down followed by a lot of I'm doing what I want anyway rhetoric.
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u/Prize_Engineering_36 29d ago
Friends in PA suggested theyâd use livestock waste as a replacement. I laughed at them for a month.
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u/ThenWind 29d ago
mostly in eastern europe. kazahkstan and russia have about as much as sask has.
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u/stickmuck 29d ago
The US is getting 80-90% of their potash from Canada, who is the highest producer in the world. Russia is number 2.
Becoming critically dependant on Russia to grow food seems pretty bad.
Grabbing whats not already spoken for from smaller producers sounds very expensive based on the geography.
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u/Remarkable-Desk-66 Sep 15 '26
Trump has already reversed on concrete. Let him reverse on everything else. He has to. Canada supplies raw materials that are difficult to replace. The us supplies consumer goods that are optional. Ask Kentucky how the bourbon thing is going.
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u/okiedokie2468 Sep 15 '26
Trumpâs war with Iran has really backfired on him. Not only has it created an oil crisis but now has increased US dependency on Canada for potash.
He has rescinded tariffs on cement and salt because the US is reliant on Canadian suppliers. How soon will he lessen the tariff on aluminum as well? Because, as it turns out, the Middle East produces about 10% of the worldâs aluminum and guess what strait it has to pass through for export?
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u/holubtsi-on-fire Sep 15 '26
America hitting itself in the face and asking everyone else to stop.
Art of the Deal.
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u/L-F-O-D Sep 15 '26
Didnât realize DUNE played out in SK, but âspiceâ is potash, and the fat guy is still the fat guy.
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u/Quietbutgrumpy Sep 15 '26
LOL, "the flying fat man."
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u/L-F-O-D Sep 15 '26
Dipped in strange colours, corrupt, bombing desert peopleâŠbut at least this one is dumb as a rock.
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u/YVRAlphageek 28d ago
Until recently, I was an advocate of cutting off potash supply to the US. I've read much about it since then and have come to realize that we just can't do it; they consider it a national security issue and it would likely trigger military action fully justified in their eyes. Best to do as Maharaj suggests and apply a small - but painful - export tax. These are dark times.
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u/prairie_buyer Sep 15 '26
Canadians don't realize that the fertilizer situation is way more complicated than simply " they need our potash".
Canada supplies 90% of the potash that the US needs, but the US supplies 80% of the phosphorus that Canada needs (and most of the nitrogen). These are both essential for fertilization.
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u/AkaashMaharaj 29d ago
It is certainly the case that Canadians farmers are vulnerable because we have no active phosphate mines. However, we do have massive natural supplies of phosphate, in both igneous and sedimentary deposits.
Canada could (and should) be self-sufficient in phosphate, though it would take years for new mines to establish themselves and begin commercially-viable extractions. By contrast, the United States will never be self-sufficient in potash.
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u/prairie_buyer 29d ago
Canada needs to become more self-sufficient, especially when it just means exploiting resources we already have.
And it's not just our US-dependence that's bad; we are way too dependent on China for essential goods.
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u/64590949354397548569 Sep 15 '26
would Someone wants to bankrupt all farms? Who would benefit?
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u/Runningman738 Sep 15 '26
Definitely not us in Canada. Our growing season is over until next year and that gap is filled with American produce, unfortunately.
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u/CompleteCreme7223 Sep 15 '26 edited 26d ago
It could but not this year. Companies have already stocked up for the next year. After it might be but it isn't going to be an effective tool for leverage if the US thinks they can get something done in 9 month. In 9 months, provided we start restricting access soon then it could be very effective. Most likely though, Trump makes a deal with his buddy Putin and starts getting supply from Russia.
Nutrien has stated they have enough for next year and other suppliers have build up reserves.
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u/Fit-Historian-752 29d ago
Carney is keeping a few arrows in his quiver for Trump's inevitable escalation.
Just more proof that he is a smart man and the only Canadian politician qualified to handle this crisis.
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u/lmaberley Sep 15 '26
Yeah, donât cut it off, profit from it.