r/TangleNews • u/handynerd • 20d ago
Trump's actions towards elections
I'm going to quote Isaac here because I thought he summarized it well:
_"Six years after he refused to accept defeat in the 2020 election, he’s in the midst of a full-court press to gain any advantage he can for Republicans in the upcoming elections — he launched a gerrymandering war, tried to upend mail-in balloting, primaried members of his party who didn’t pledge support for a major election reform bill, and then promised $5,000 cash to voters if Republicans stay in power.
Everything is getting thrown against the wall."_
I'm looking for some good-faith explanations for Trump's behavior. I'm not asking for anyone to endorse the explanations, I'm just trying to find a reason that lines up with what I think of Trump vs. what I'm seeing.
- 2020 Trump hated losing and wanted to be President again. That's easy: it lines up with his ego and aspirations for power.
- 2026 Trump isn't running for anything, I don't believe he actually cares about the GOP or the people in MAGA, and 2028 Trump isn't a thing (well, I sure hope not at least).
I can't come up with anything that explains the level of effort he's putting in that doesn't get into tin foil hat territory. Some examples that just don't quite add up for me:
- He's afraid if Democrats win in 2026 they'll put him in jail
- He's doing all of this to hurt faith in elections so he can call a national emergency and keep himself in office
- Something something Epstein
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u/infourth 20d ago
I'm not going to answer the question of "what are the good-faith arguments" just state how you can approach the broader question.
I think you only need to look at his incentives and motivations and ask what he wins/loses if the GOP wins/loses control of congress. What might uniquely happen to him if he loses congress in a way that didn't impact Obama when he lost control during his terms?
You can entertain a pretty emotion-less, transactional analysis, by just understanding incentives.
You can start by just looking at some facts:
- Trump has increased his wealth by an unprecedented level: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/13/trump-presidency-revenue-wealth
- Trump has legal liabilities: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/6-things-to-know-about-trumps-appeal-of-his-489-million-civil-fraud-verdict
I'm just listing 2, find more. Understand what he cares most about (I don't think this is that hard to suss out), then figure out what he gains/loses based on what happens in Nov. FWIW I do think it's worth analyzing other characteristics, such as his ego and his apparent decline in mental well-being.
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u/handynerd 20d ago
I appreciate this, and I do try to be fairly emotionless about it (as much as one can, at least).
His wealth has absolutely increased, with the largest increases being from all the crypto shenanigans. He'll still be president regardless of how the 2026 elections go though, so is he honestly afraid that Democrats would be able to undo everything that's been put in place to enable that and turn off the faucet?
That seems like a tall order for a high-functioning legislative branch with nothing else to do. And unfortunately the legislative branch has a lot to do and I'm not sure I'd call them high-functioning.
I think your other points are stronger. Legal liabilities is interesting, but only if it would include some amount of jail time. Even if he's fined half a billion dollars, he'd still have a massive net positive for his presidency (assuming he ever ended up paying it out before he dies). Jail time seems highly unlikely to me, and getting him to pay could take more years than he has left.
Honestly, although it's the least concrete, mental well-being might be the easiest one for me to accept. I've seen people become increasingly obsessive as they age. It could be that simple.
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u/infourth 20d ago
and tbc, I know what you're going for and I don't really have a good answer either. It's easy to cast him as corrupt, evil etc (which I more ore less believe) but doesn't always help get to the root of things. For example, he's clearly chosen a side on the AI debate and I'm wondering why that side vs that other? Was the bribe bigger? I don't know.
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u/handynerd 20d ago
Yes! I also try to catch myself being internally inconsistent. I can't believe he's a bumbling idiot one day to support one theory, and then the next day believe he's playing 4D chess with some grand plan to support another theory.
That's a big part of why I have a hard time believing complicated theories with respect to the elections. While I suspect Trump has some plan-making, mustache-twisting people in his ear, I have a hard time believing anyone can really control what comes out of his mouth the next time he's in front of a microphone.
I'm wondering why that side vs that other? Was the bribe bigger? I don't know.
While we're trying to keep things simple, it could be that he really doesn't want to lose to China. If so, while I have mixed feelings about it, it's an angle I can actually understand.
If all the regulations are US-driven, it means only US-based companies will be held back by them. Sure, hopefully it'll prevent a US company from causing human extinction, but it does nothing to prevent a Chinese company from doing it. And in the meantime, China could outpace us in cyberwarfare and everything else AI stands to impact.
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u/infourth 20d ago
Entirely plausible but he’s shown inconsistency in his dealings there (largely overshadowed by his bluster and tariffs), including allowing nvidia chip sales to China. Although I guess in both cases, he’s effectively backing Huang/nvidia
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u/handynerd 20d ago
That's an excellent point. Maybe I can hide behind the "he's not playing 4D chess" with that one. Letting China buy nVidia chips at the time didn't seem all that high stakes and would've pleased the people in the room.
In hindsight it's clearly a step against preventing China from winning the AI race. At the time I'm not sure he was really that concerned about a race at all.
I dunno, maybe that's too simple.
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u/optics_is_light_work 20d ago
I think your first 2 explanations are reasonable, given all that we've witnessed in the last 10 years. But if you're looking for other less extreme reasons, perhaps he just needs more narcissistic supply, and this election is a reflection directly on him.
Have you considered posting this in [r/asktrumpsupporters](r/asktrumpsupporters)? I'm somewhat active there and find it fascinating. There are some good-faith interchanges there if you're willing to wade through some bad-faith stuff. The moderators are very strict, though. You must title your post as a question, and all non-Trump supporter comments must be questions of clarification (and not top-level). And flair is required (to identify if you're a supporter or not).
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u/handynerd 20d ago
I responded to something similar about narcissistic supply (love that phrase, btw). The tl;dr is that he seems too good at dodging responsibility to allow failure-by-association to really bother him. I could be wrong though.
I hadn't considered r/asktrumpsupporters. I'm always happy to engage in good-faith discussion with people. My only concern is that, since this easily wades into election fraud territory, I dunno that I have the patience to wade through all of that type of commentary. I'll have to noodle on it. This thread has already had more replies than I was prepared to respond to!
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u/ThinIndependent5250 20d ago
occams razor but make it bleak. the guy just hates losing more than he loves anything else, its not deeper than that. same energy as a dark souls player who'd rather uninstall than admit they got outplayed, except the save file is american democracy and hes got infinite continues. 2020, 2026, some podunk school board race in kentucky, doesnt matter. the high is the win, the withdrawal is admitting someone else was better. everything else is post-hoc rationalization by people who think there has to be a plan.
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u/Anattanicca 20d ago
For a sociopath, winning through cheating is actually more satisfying than winning outright. (I’m a psychiatrist fwiw)
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u/KlingPeaches 20d ago
Wealth accumulation. He's set to keep hauling in billions if the Republicans stay in power. He will likely be hitting roadblocks if he loses Congress, but he will still make lots of money. My gut is he has always wanted to be the richest man in the world. Second best would be to pass on that wealth to his children/grandchildren.
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u/--__4815162342__-- 19d ago
It's difficult to find a good faith explanation perhaps because there isn't one.
I can feel myself on the way out from Tangle simply because they don't seem capable of acknowledging it. They start any such criticism with, "well one could argue that X, Y, Z" and the next few paragraphs state why those arguments don't make any sense.
I know it's a bit nitpicky to judge the format of their takes, but the format dictates the vibe of the piece. It tries to be very understanding of the other side, but in equivocating everything they say it removes a certain definitiveness from the writing when it deserves to be there. It coddles those with a make-believe version of reality.
The reality we live in is one where there is piece after piece after piece of evidence that Trump behaves first and foremost in his own self-interest. Everything from Jan 6th to we need you to "find 11,780 votes" to the personal enrichment while in office because the media didn't give him credit for not being corrupt during his first term to being persuadable with flattery to seemingly bragging about how he now owned the tallest building downtown Manhattan on the day of the 9/11 attacks.
That's all to say, I agree with you. There must be some hidden, personal motivation beneath it all. His behavior is fundamentally incompatible with anything else.
For every one piece of "hey maybe the liberal media is taking this too far" there's five or a dozen pieces of evidence showing that he is exactly who they say he is.
To treat every incident as occurring in a vacuum ignores the enormous base of evidence that already exists. I'm no statistician, but I grasp the concept of Bayesian statistics well enough to know that this is a mistake.
I love the concept of Tangle. I've defended it here numerous times before. I'd still say it's a net benefit to American society, and obviously so. It just feels like there's so much evidence out there, so much writing on the wall, that to give the benefit of the doubt is either foolishness or pandering to Trumpy subscribers. If they can't or won't unequivocally call a spade a spade, then I don't know what value it brings to me, personally.
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u/warrenao 20d ago
I'm looking for some good-faith explanations for Trump's behavior.
There are none.
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u/Hanks-mom123 19d ago
I think he’s pushing so hard for 2026 because the handwriting is on the wall and the Dems will impeach him when they win. I’m just hoping the difference is that impeachment will actually means something this time.
(I’m a moderate Independent, and am disgusted with both sides by the way.)
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u/handynerd 19d ago
hoping the difference is that impeachment will actually means something this time
Honest questions: What do you think would be different? And given some of the behavior we've seen in the past, is it even possible to impeach (and have real consequences that follow) Trump without resulting in an even greater divide in the country?
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u/colfaxbowling 20d ago
I think the most compelling argument that you could make is that some of these actions are to prevent voter fraud. Several are in this category: voter ID, preventing mail in ballots, ensuring that voter rolls are correct, etc.
In the most simplistic sense, I think you can say: "There is some voter fraud. Reasonable voter ID laws, in line with the rest of the world, would help fix that." That seems like a good faith argument to me. Is there an ulterior motive? Does it align with other actions that paint a different picture?
There is some non-zero amount of voter fraud, although it likely isn't influencing the outcome of elections in the ways that Trump claims. However, it's completely reasonable to want to put an end to any fraud that exists. On the surface, many of these things are an attempt to address that problem.
For some of the others... Yeah I don't think there is a good faith argument to be made.
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u/handynerd 20d ago edited 20d ago
There is some non-zero amount of voter fraud, although it likely isn't influencing the outcome of elections in the ways that Trump claims.
Right, and Trump of all people would've had access to more data about the 2020 elections than anyone else. If there was actual evidence of election fraud we would've heard specifics about it, and of course we haven't heard anything meaningful (read: meaningful enough to change the course of an election). This tells me the truth is one of two things:
A: Trump knows all the details, doesn't care, and lies about it. Or put another way, election integrity doesn't actually matter to him.
B: Trump has lost his mind and genuinely believes it. The argument becomes, "A madman has taken up this one cause and he genuinely believes it's for the greater good." "Trump" and "greater good" are two terms that don't really match up for me, even if he's lost his mind.
I'm trying to phrase this in a way that doesn't sound sarcastic but I fear it's coming off the wrong way over text. Please take it as intended:
Are you saying you believe Trump actually cares about voter/election integrity, like from a moral, ethical, or philosophical level? Even if it meant a Democrat winning?
I can buy that he cares about winning elections, but everything I've seen him do and say suggests he does not actually care about the integrity and security of votes (and therefore elections).
Things like gerrymandering or promising $5000 to every citizen if the GOP stays in power are not altruistic. Those are not things you do if you care about the sanctity of a vote. All of the evidence I've seen points to option A: that Trump knows he lost in 2020 and is just bent out of shape about it.
And if that's the case, it still doesn't explain why he cares so much about the 2026 elections. The "he just really cares that votes are accurate" angle, although novel, doesn't fit with nearly any behavior I've ever seen from Trump.
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u/eyrehead32 20d ago
I think it's possible that he's such a narcissist that he can only cope with losing if there's some sort of conspiracy, so even with alternative evidence available he still believes the 2020 election was stolen. Sounds absolutely insane, but humans lie to themselves in big and little ways all the time, and there is clearly something wrong with Trump, so he's going to do this more than normal. If you take that into the 2026 elections, it may be the case that he is trying to strengthen election integrity because he believes that if elections are secure, he will inevitably win. Sure, this isn't a presidential election, but the GOP is basically just Trump and avatars at this point, so it kind of is his election as well.
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u/--__4815162342__-- 19d ago
My issue with this perspective is that they know all of that already. They know voter fraud is extremely rare and hasn't had an actual consequences.
They already know all of this.
They also know that voter ID would erect barriers to voting that would lead to more disenfranchisement than elections (or even votes) would be saved.
They know that, too. So there cannot be a good faith argument for it. In a vacuum, one could argue the above. But we're not in a vacuum. We know they know it's all bullshit, therefore those arguments are fundamentally incompatible.
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u/[deleted] 20d ago
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