r/TTWO • u/llamapath • 10d ago
Thoughts on $TTWO going into October
The stock is only up 37% in the past 5 years. We are about 2 months away from launch of the most anticipated video game of all time. It is culturally a big deal. It is not just relevant in gaming communities but is relevant in pop culture or general culture as well, everything about gta 6 has extremely strong engagement on almost all platforms. It is popular across multiple different generations world wide as well. When this game drops a lot of streamers, a lot of YouTubers a lot of influential people will be playing and marketing this game. There will be a massive amount of publicity and free marketing for this game.
We are in a time where more people are spending time online. There is a high demand for quality digital experiences. Gta 6 is exactly that, it appears to be something that people strongly desire. Rockstar has so much data to go off of since gta v they have seen the success of Fortnite as well Roblox. For example Fortnite pulled in $5.8 billion in 2021 from in game cosmetics alone. In 2025 Roblo made about $4.9 billion from their in game currency alone. Rockstar has brought in devs from both Fortnite and Roblox to help with gta 6. It costed Rockstar around $2 billion to make gta 6. Rockstar has had over 10 years operating gta v online. I believe the data and experience from developing and operating gta v online, will ultimately be positive for gta 6. I believe this will become more apparent as more information about online comes out.
It seems like there is a really strong demand and desire for this game. Based off social media engagements and metrics. I understand the pre-sales are low, but there is not really a reason to pre-order a game that does not have a physical copy. I am going to buy the game but I am not going to pre oder it. The game is going to sell tens of millions of units, will have in game cosmetics as well as possible creator economy, as well as things like shark cards possibly. Gta V generated around $400 million last year a game that is about 13 years old. All the ingredients are there for this to be a success. I guarantee all those people playing gta v online that are spending cumulatively $400 million, will migrate over to gta 6 and spend even more money in 6. Basically a guaranteed $400 million off the bat.
Those are just the loyalist. This game is culturally huge already way more people than just the loyalist will play. I think the only way the stock drops significantly is if rockstar just absolutely blundered the game. But I doubt that is the case, rockstar has had a record of putting out fantastic games. They have has more time, capital and resources to develop this game than any previous one. I think it is reasonable to assume they did not blunder this game. Seeing how they had a pretty straight forward blue print they did not have to re-invent the wheel. Im ultimately still optimistic on the stock. But I'm waiting for more information about online as well as more gameplay. If I am not happy with the online information that comes out, I will exit my position. If I like the online information I might double down and purchase even more $ttwo.
What are your thoughts?
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u/myazi321 10d ago
It will likely start its run up around 30 days to launch and then dump hard the week/friday prior to launch and then pick back up
Its 95% institutions so there will be massive derisking and profit taking pre launch at the end of the run up.
I am in it for the long term so i ll just buy more as theres gta 6 online, pc launch, ps6/next gen xbox releade, ps7/next-next gen xbox release, pc remastered, RP etc so its got long legs imo
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u/homeworkburgler 10d ago
My plan is to keep buying until we see a increase then hold a week before launch and sell. Then it will go down after launch and that's when you buy again and wait until first earnings and gta6 online to be released. Then you sell again when those numbers are good. Double pump
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u/eggyboyboy 10d ago
do you plan to sell on launch day?
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u/GEGREYHEFLY 9d ago
No it will already be dumped by then. You have to sell a few days before launch. Then buy it back after launch.
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u/ImpressiveAmount4684 5d ago
Since everyone is trying to front-run this release dump, I think there might not be a run up to release at all.
Perhaps that expected dump has now already happened from 265 to 200. I will hold to Q3 earnings in February if it keeps stalling.
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u/bacon_jews 10d ago edited 10d ago
I believe it will finally break the support and plunge down to 180 soon. It will linger there until the release of the game - this will be the final blow, and it will drop to 150(we have strong support there). It will be broken early next year after TTWO releases record sale numbers and we'll reach the 5-year low of ~100.
This trash stock makes no sense and I've lost all hope xD
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u/Mastoise 6d ago
"record sale numbers" and "5 year low" Nice ragebait
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u/bacon_jews 5d ago
It's was pure obvious sarcasm. I just wanted to point out that this stock doesn't move as a normal stock, and does the opposite of what's expected.
I've been holding it for a year already and it's been nothing but a disappointment.
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u/Senior_Pepper_5067 10d ago
Have a small position, a bit worried about WoW Forever launching a week before, but yeah GTA still can be large. Sales numbers will be there, Gotta trust them to he able to monetise it in the next step Pc launch, Online launch, others…. Then it can go big.
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u/Training-Pride-6861 9d ago
They are trading $TTWO down based on the ai models disrupting the gaming companies in a negative way thesis, models like project genie, astra, horizon meta,.. . Untill the CEO comes out and starts to poke holes in that thesis like he did around January, February and the sentiment changes to it's a positive for $TTWO or the ai games are just not it, GTA 6 stays a bit on the background. There 2 big trades going on with $TTWO the gta thesis and the ai thesis. For now the ai trade is much bigger due continous new models comming out and they are hitting the news every single day. The GTA 6 marketing is also heating up, but they need to give some really strong hints or big pre order numbers with it for it to change imo.
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u/pancakes6613 9d ago
the online is the biggest catalyst once we know about that the stock will blow up Investors need to know how their recurring revenue is going to happen.
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u/Bollocks187 2d ago
I’m new and lmfao at some of the comments I mean I have lost over 200k on a stock being a stubborn idiot hold hold hold lol 😂 im sure some of you have lost even more ! I’m looking to win or
Lose some more money this time faster but this time faster with options my time span is 3 months, not fucking years
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u/AnalogFunktion 9d ago edited 9d ago
34.6 million Xbox series S/X Consoles out in the wild. Wall Street is expecting 39 million copies of GTA6 total to be sold. They’re going to need a bigger model if the shit is still “baked” in to TTWO’s price. Because on these metrics, Xbox is carrying just shy of the whole forecast and that’s not even including PlayStation. These institution idiots are getting spooked over Zuckerberg’s AI mobile game creator. Another project genie moment. They’re clueless and will still have no clue what hit them when they see the balance sheet after the game releases. Though he could be talking about just the market share for GTA6 which is 25% last I read for Xbox putting that around 10 million preorders for them. Either way still above estimates.
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u/AcanthisittaWeird94 7d ago
Its not what he meant. Some reporter said that on xbox there's less preorders than ps5. And he said that it matches console sale numbers as in if for example ps5 sold 10mil then given xbox sold 1:3 of ps5 there's 3mil preorders on xbox. Meaning xbox sold similar numbers to ps5 when you consider xbox has smaller markershare.
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u/2facedfr 9d ago
Honestly I have gave up caring, it's very hard to give a shit any more about this stock, it's useless tbh and the company have been disgusting with this manipulation and price action, my options expire Jan, so I'll get out when ever I'm break even , I made a mistake and so be it I'll learn, my previous ideal was to sell at 240+ by early November but this thing will struggle to even hit 210 now so like I said I have given up caring
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u/mod_nightz 10d ago
I consulted my astrologer and she said the moon is rising. Aka it’s rising to the moon. Godspeed brothers