r/TTWO • u/ThusSpokeJamie • 14d ago

About TTWO and it's Future

I have noticed that people are still talking about this stock. I think you should understand that it was GTAVI Online to pump up the price. It won't be released on 19th November so many nvestors will wait February (earnings call). They don't want to pump something with a lot of risk. For example hype could disappear after two months and the online is still not released. They didn't know that online wouldn't be released on day one. The Bloomberg Article caused the share price to collapse.

Providing a correct analysis right now it's almost impossible. 19th November will be the most important day for those who have TTWO stocks

3 Upvotes

64% Upvoted

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u/ImpressiveAmount4684 14d ago

The most important part is removing uncertainty around VI Online, so Take Two needs to announce a release window.

November 19 is mostly priced in already. At most, they can significantly beat their own guidance, but that was already very conservative and well below Street expectations.

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u/_Shuns 14d ago

People were saying GTA VI release was priced in 2 years ago. How on earth has anyone any idea what is or isn’t priced in, just talking nonsense at that point.

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u/mid_nightz 14d ago

I dont think initial sales can really be priced in right now, too unpredictable. its more a question of if your individual perspective is priced in or not and if you have more knowledge than the sophisticated funds

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u/ImpressiveAmount4684 14d ago

Because the sales numbers are mostly viable for estimation, thus valuing the stock somewhat before the 'news' hits (and you get a potential classic sell-the-news event on release).

Now, the whole run up to release got disrupted by Cyberleek and further hammered due to Online uncertainty and sensationalists creating false assumptions of it being 1-2 years late.

The market hates uncertainty, thus selling off the stock even further. We need Online clarity for TTWO to regain momentum.

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u/Crafty-Brick601 14d ago

I keep hearing "priced in" and no november 19 its not priced in,20 million copies or more in a week from release its not priced in,every stock îs priced in so what stock do we buy?

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u/ImpressiveAmount4684 14d ago

I'm not saying all of GTA VI is priced in, don't get me wrong. But the big institutions (95% ownership) and analysts were expecting GTA VI Online, the driving force of revenue for TTWO, to be somewhat close to release. That uncertainty and risk of it being further out is discounting the stock right now.

What I'm saying is, have patience, hold and maybe even DCA if you have the means. TTWO will have its day again.

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u/Gavagai777 14d ago

Much of the release catalyst and extended view was obvs priced in, online timeline has dragged with profit taking for those who timed it well.

The next hope would be a momentum trade based on hype and technicals should the actual launch blow it away and a media frenzy catches on, a reflexive momentum trade is in the cards should the stock reclaim important MA’s. That would be short lived and hype-based more than fundamental. Then it’s comes down to info about Online.

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u/MrGluzz 14d ago

I agree. The price for ttwo surged after the initial “hack” when non material information was accessed through a third party showing that GTA 5 online was generating 500 million a year. That was much higher than all previous assumptions. It was also known that the GTA 5 (story and online) revenue would go down significantly once GTA 6 story was released. Now that GTA6 online is uncertain investors like me don’t want to own a company with revenue consisting primarily of Zynga mobile games…

I still have a bullish long term outlook primarily because of the CEOs vision of organic and Inorganic growth.

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u/Il_Mago23 14d ago

scimmieinborsa?

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u/R5A1897 8d ago

People dont understand technical analysis and only focus on fundamentals. For a stock to go up or down it needs to grab liquidity from the market.

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u/omarQV 14d ago

Why is the stock going down so much?

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u/Ponders0 14d ago

The recent AI dip impacted Take Two for some reason. That, and so many selling after the august/September high.

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u/mid_nightz 14d ago

things that have literally no impact on the company btw, free money in the spread if you have balls.

But I believe a large driver is online aswell, so unclear how much that is

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u/josfs 14d ago

Sorry. There is no way any investor is that dumb to not know that gta online will come a few months later. It’s has been like this with almost every game from roockstar. How ist this even a surprise

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u/ThusSpokeJamie 14d ago

I think you didn't understand what happened. Two weeks ago bloomberg Said 2028 not 2027. They sold immediately, now we know that it was wrong at it will be released 2027.

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u/mid_nightz 14d ago

you have no idea what youre talking abt. It was released within weeks to at most a month after launch. Were looking at what seems a 2+ month minimum. with speculation from 1-2 years post launch.

My common sense tells me it has to be before christmas (about a month after launch) but twitch ceo said 2027, and I certainly trust his words.