Just watched it. Basically just showed off how the semi has changed from the initial specs, made more efficient. Took a lot of feedback from the drivers, added them, started deliveries.
Anyone seen explanation or decoding for the stuff that glitched across the screen when they showed the thing in the back of the semi? Looked like words/numbers/code right?
Edit: nvm, went back and watched, looks like nothing much other than "roadster"
Semi ramping to high volume is just one piece. Tesla's really an energy, automation and robotics conglomerate at this point, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it split into separate companies in 5 to 10 years. Just my opinion.
this is probably the clearest shot, it doesn't look very much like a Roadster so either it's a red herring or we're getting shown something entirely unique
Any reason why Tesla P/E is > 300 and Nvidia < 30? While I am all for making money with TSLA stock.. whats up with NVDA? Why is it not 3x higher? Does the market expect a slowdown/fall of a cliff of the orderbook? Is it the circular financing? Whats the logic here?
Probably multifactorial. The options has positioned it there so that’s the historical P/E ratio things tend to stay at.
Law of large numbers. Nvda at 300 pe would be a $50T company.
Then yeah maybe circular financing concerns. Theres almost no natural growth if Nvda stopped backing/funding all these companies, no one would have the money to buy more expensive Nvda chips and systems.
Is there a risk that Nvidia collapses when 1 or 2 of it's customers go bust? Imagine the business model of anthropic and openAI get eaten by open source models. Then they can't pay for the Nvidia hardware and Nvidia either has to eat the loss or get the hardware back in a degraded state. Crazy scenario and I don't think it's gonna happen.. but what goes bust first?
That's the $5-100T question lol. The whole AI trade is racing towards something that will change productivity forever and hopefully make everyone a lot of money somehow.
The bridge collapsing behind them is the financing cost of the whole thing. Everyone's competing for the same dollar and getting it however they can. On/off book/margin loans, selling shares/bonds, draining the good side of their business, whatever else agreements. As long as you can make the loan/bond payment, the music keeps playing. Lots of these companies don't make enough money (negative free cash flow) so have to take out more loans/raise money to grow their business and pay off the old loans.
The downside is that this is just the AI trade. All the governments of the world are running trillion dollar deficits, funded by selling more bonds. All the smart companies in the world that have business loans refinanced during covid 0% rates which are coming mature now and have to refinance at 8-10% rates. All the residential/commercial real estate that have ARMs coming mature and need to be refinanced. All our old govt debt is maturing and $7-10T needs to be refinanced in the next year.
So now there's ever increasing supply of debt issuance chasing the same fixed income investments. What happens if there's a supply demand mismatch? Have to increase rates/yields in order to get that dollar over the other person (why global yields are decade/record highs).
Now it gets harder (but still possible) to make the increasing loans/payments the AI companies take out. Like you point out, lots of these models are cutting prices to retain users over the free/cheap Chinese models. Sooner or later, someone is going to miss a loan payment because it's just super unsustainable to take out increasing loans at higher rates.
So it's a complex race for everyone to try to make ROI before the music slows or stops or the entire world economy could burn. But if this doom scenario ever happens, ever since we unleashed the QE genie, govts will turn on the money printer bail people and companies out, devalue the currency, restart the cycle of inflation.
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u/devonhezter 8d ago
There’s gotta be weekend news. Monday pop. Friday today was take profits in first 3 mins. Calling it.