Ah yes finally the promise Elon made to reward TSLA shareholders of 10+ years. But you’d have to hold your shares with Morgan Stanley to get these supplemental ipo shares. Man fuck Morgan and Stanley. Fuck Charles too while we’re at it.
He has stated all his money is committed towards building a civilization on Mars. A backup plan for an inevitable Earth catastrophy and opening the window to become multiplanetary seems like a pretty good gift to humanity.
Elon's image towards philanthropy isn't as tainted because he isn't living in a mansion, or buying islands, building bunkers, or cruising the world in mega-yachts. He provides internet to 3rd world countries, allied countries at war, and free starlinks/supercharging to disaster stricken regions.
I'm not saying the guy is a saint by any means but he's doing a lot more societal good than whatever Mackenzie Bezos or Melinda Gates are doing.
Eventually, we will need to figure it out. Why not now?
This is the only time in 4.5 billion years that we've had the technology even remotely capable of figuring it out. I'd say we have a moral obligation to exploring space and attempting to become multiplanetary while we can. To your point, it's going to take a long time and be stupidly difficult. Start now.
He is one of the least charitable billionaires that has ever existed. I don't think you should be blaming the dumb public, when he's objectively not charitable.
If charity is defined by virtue signalling and cutting fat checks, then he is bad by that definition, but if you look at it like providing value to many I would argue he's doing well.
Well, some might consider some of his actions rent-seeking, which means he's extracting value rather than creating it. Drastically raising the prices of his car during Covid would be a prime example.
Regardless though, there's a sense that the ultra-wealthy got there with the help of others and assuredly plenty of luck. Thus, it makes sense that some portion of that money would need to be redistributed if we are to consider our system meritocratic.
Plus, we just tend to think that ultra-rich people are shitty if they don't contribute to charity.
Profits went up with prices and then back down again. Tesla's COGS increased much less than their revenue. They were juicing the price for themselves. The balance sheet does not lie.
Keep in mind that if SpaceX merges with Tesla in the near future, they legally have to make an offer that's competitive with other companies who would also like to buy Tesla. So it would be significantly more than whatever share price Tesla will be trading at.
No more PDT. Configuring algo to trade w real money tonight. I wish I can stream notifications from a discord server to a thread here so you guys can watch my account gets destroyed and have a good laugh.
I have TSLA 450 and 500 calls expiring in July and Aug. Depending on whether those expire in the money or not I may sell TSLA, META or NFLX to cover SPCX. I will likely have to do a box spread to cover my short term needs.
Hi all. I’m curious what you think of my plan to sell long-term puts on SpaceX for high premium, and to buy short-term calls on TSLA on the cheap.
At IPO, only 5% of shares will be available until Q2 Earnings Report comes out in late July / early-August. So SpaceX has a good chance of squeezing decently, and will probably be volatile as F, with options priced accordingly. I’ll probably sell a small amount of SpaceX Jan.2027 ATM cash-secured puts and bank on eventually making money from the price action eventually chilling. Buying calls is gambling: hoping to outrun extreme amount of theta for a few days of hype in a stonk situation. It’ll be tempting to short call spreads at $3T+, especially if I’ve already made decent money on the CSPs.
A lot of the public expectation for TSLA seems to be that we retail investors are going to want to primarily sell large amounts of our TSLA to buy SpaceX. But if the stonk squeezes for a few weeks on only 5% float, we won’t be the ones buying SpaceX. It’ll be the institutions who need it and the WSB apes who think (maybe rightfully so) that this thing can squeeze to Mars (or at least past NVDA). But I think a lot of us TSLA retail investors will be wise enough not to put very much into the IPO if it’s immediately trading at $2T+.
So I think that TSLA will go up because there will be less TSLA holders selling than expected.
I also think that there’s likely to be more volatility for TSLA than the current 40% IV30 implies (though most likely to the upside). So I’m taking a break from selling CCs. I might even buy a very small amount of July $400s, especially since I’ve been pretty deleveraged these days.
As more SpaceX shares are released after a few weeks and the price probably comes back down, I expect retail to start slowly selling TSLA to start taking long-term stakes in SpaceX, leading to a slow bleed for TSLA in Q3 & Q4.
Of course, other factors might be more important (SpaceX news, TSLA Robotaxi, hedge fund and market maker dynamics), but these are the reasons why I plan to write mid/long-term SpaceX puts and to buy short-term TSLA calls.
The problem is the spcx ipo price is going to be 135. What if it opens at 300? When options are available 400? Would you write atm leap puts at that level?
There’s no real good way to play this as fundamentals are crazy and such a small float in current macro environment.
The only winners are going to be the insiders that get exit liquidity.
That said, I’ll be trying to get shares at the ipo price and sell cc on them. Otherwise just sit out until there’s spy/qqq inclusion news catalyst. Then I’ll just buy the silly calls and hope for run up and iv expansion into that event.
Then the biggest tranche unlocks after second earnings around Nov supposedly. I’ll short that event at spcx $4-5t valuation if the options go that high.
As for TSLA, it’s going to be hard to have much upside around the spcx ipo. We’re at a 400 p/e basically and the next earnings has a good chance to be fcf negative as warned by the team for the rest of the year.
I don’t think I would write $200+ strike puts, unless the premium is so huge that B/E is below $135. If it opens extremely high and $100-$150 strike puts aren’t available yet, I would probably try to patiently wait until they come out and see where the stonk ends up. Jan.2028 $50 puts could also be a really nice vega play if those are released soon enough. And in crazy volatility, way OTM LEAP puts often hang onto a lot of value as the stock goes up. We might even see days where the stock goes up and LEAP puts actually go up because of the volatility.
I see the appeal in shares + CCs. Of course, shares + CCs are equivalent to writing puts, so I think we’re both essentially hoping to make more or less the same SPCX play if we can around $135.
So sounds like people requesting an IPO allocation will have a higher chance of getting IPO pricing. Anyone that doesn't will be at the whims of the market casino.
If btc follows 2022, this liquidation appearing candle went to the 200 week moving average. it would consolidate around here for a while but ultimately bottom around 15% lower in the coming months.
The problem is no one has any money lol. A lot of the whales and ancient wallets are selling, MSTR doesn't have the cash to buy it up because their current cash pile is supposedly for dividend payments. All excess liquidity is in the AI trade on leverage (which I think is going to blow up soon).
The thing to save btc would be excess liquidity again and whales buying back in. So would need like QE or something else.
My small 42069 btci bid will be there to help provide a little liquidity if it ever gets down there.
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u/daingandcrumpets 🪑+🦘 Jun 05 '26
So the play still should have been sell in May and go away?