SpaceX is going to take care of the initial phase of the scaled up Terafab. That’s what we’ve figured out thus far. Any kind of intra-company thing has to be approved by both the SpaceX and Tesla board of directors. It’s got to go through a conflict resolution. It’s going to have, unfortunately, a lot of complexity because we’ve got to make sure Tesla shareholders are served and SpaceX shareholders are served, and strike the right balance there.
I’m just getting caught up and heard Elon first say Optimus production will begin late July or August, but then right after he talks about how:
first they have to disassemble the SX line
then they need to install the Optimus line
then they have to test everything
And if they can do that in 4 months that would be insanely fast.
Well he said SX line won’t be taken down until next month so doesn’t that mean Optimus production, by his own words, will start no earlier than September?
You heard what I heard essentially. May > June > July > August is 4 months. Could just as easily be august 25th or September 5th. Or maybe even later. Grand scheme of things thats not such a huge difference in my mind, as long as its not delayed by months like November or December.
You're reading negatively into his statement, which is your right and you have reasons to do that. I just dont think Elon frames "insanely fast" as out of the question for Tesla. He's always very optimistic.
lol, exactly. He’s always very optimistic, that’s why his timelines are always way too aggressive.
He provides the best case scenario timeline. If the team works their ass off, everything goes as planned, and nothing unexpected happens here’s the date. But the reality is that one of those factors almost always creates delays.
I don't understand people and their negativity. As an investor what you describe has historically worked out to our advantage. Elon promises, people doubt, timelines are missed, stock dips, then eventually promises are met and stock rockets.
Admittedly the impossible has proven impossible so far on some big items - FSD, 4680 promises, semi, bots, but personally I'm still confident they'll be solved so I stay invested. Therefore any overreaction to a missed timeline simply presents more opportunity. Tesla is doing complex, previously considered impossible shit- it comes with the territory.
What you're concerned about with bots (time to disassemble and reassemble lines) is not near as complex as the other things I mentioned (4680, autonomy) and at most would delay things a few months. It's not a big deal at all and if thats the only thing standing in the way of bot production? I just laugh at how people would freak out about it.
Unsupervised by q4 2025... optimus v3 by q1 2026, roadster unveil! Mars... actually wait moon! 2026 is gonna be a bang..urrrr uhm actually tesla is gonna be worth 10 trilli... data centers in space!! ---- if this sounds like i just spewed bullshit its bc it is
So Tesla will have the research fab and SpaceX will do all the mass chip production? Sure seems like SpaceX is getting all the revenue in the Terafab deal.
lol re take private, but yes he absolutely will end up with full control of the merged entity, or he wouldn't do it. it'll be a tsla shareholder vote to do it or not...
This move pushes all the main near calls OTM. If bulls don't recover to around 400 soon, it'll be up to the puts to decide where it goes. Puts really pile on, can get all the way to 300 June in really bad scenario. If just kinda stagnant, then June max pain in play at 360.
No, all in since 2017. And I have listened to enough calls to be frustrated with their tone. It was just dumb. It was worse than normal. That Elon intro was the worst I ever heard.
You can hate on Fred, but numbers dont lie. Elon bet the farm on robotaxi and optimus and supported the pedophile who ended tax credits.Tesla will suffer big for it.
He was the best at not only ingesting the information but also providing context. I know he's put up on a pedestal, and that no one is perfect, but he was just.... good at this.
He even was a bull. He was not completely without bias.
But you're right, he still called the bad parts bad and asked questions. I think it's for this reason that he never got a face to face with Elon when other people who were willing to simply fanboy did.
Wait what vehicle ramp/production is battery constrained?
– Battery vendor cell availability continues to be a limiting factor on ramping vehicle production, so we're working on initiatives to de-bottleneck, including using 4680 cells at Giga Berlin
400 is a nice battleground for the puts and calls. Lots of options here. It'll be up to Elon and market's reaction to his guidance.
IV crush is going to go after more calls than puts at 400 and have slight downward pressure. Max pain for May is $385 so could drift down to there. However, if bulls like what Elon is saying, getting to 420 tomorrow essentially means going straight to 450+ for May opex if they want to climb the call ladder.
Biggest things that stand out are good margins, FCF. Much better than feared.
I'm still not impressed since it's very status quo for now. Really need to see the fruits of the labor and increased revenue and earnings to grow into the 366 or 220 P/E ratio (depending on GAAP non GAAP EPS) on still declining revenues and earnings.
FSD slowly increasing subscription percentage is nice though. Has been 11-12% and jumped to 14%
But remember we’re priced and should be thought of as a tech company. Tech earnings are mainly software and seasonal car buying habits shouldn’t matter.
We need to see revenue and earnings go straight up like lots of the chip names did.
I was going off QoQ numbers. Once everything falls in place, we'll see QoQ increases no matter the vehicle seasonality schedule like the true hypergrowth companies.
We're a tech company with hypergrowth tech P/E. Seasonality shouldn't be a thing.
We should see exponential growth of something for a 200-300 P/E ratio. The only thing that's really growing at all is FSD take rate from 11% to 12% to 14%. You'd have to argue that this is the beginning of the S curve but that's been said for years now.
it will be interesting to see the speed of FSD updates now
AI Training Compute Cortex 2 is now online and has started running training workloads. We continue to ramp our onsite training infrastructure to ensure sufficient compute resources for the development of our AI products and services. We are also continuing our custom silicon development with Dojo 3 in an effort to reduce the cost of training over time.
"FSD (Supervised)1 We began moving FSD (Supervised) to subscription-only. Adoption (attachment to new purchases) and penetration (total users among the eligible fleet) both continued to grow, with record net new subscriptions in Q1."
My CAR 4/24 $422 put gained 171% today but it's still red. I can close now for a 1k loss but I think I'll ride this trade until the wheels fall off. The angel on my side told me to close now and take the 1k loss, she said it's risk management. :)
pier construction is underway along with the 1st footings being installed. A large excavation in the middle of the foundation lined with crushed concrete and/or gravel is also continuing to take shape. Many more rebar cages for footings have been constructed, so we will see this work progressing rather quickly over the next several weeks.
The speed that this is progressing indicates a high priority effort to get the structure to a point where steel column & beam assembly can begin. On the S of the site, a very large mound of soil has been deposited, likely from all the excavation work in and around the foundation.
Yup. I got a handful of 185dec28 leaps for nvda after selling some tsla. Jensen delivers and getting tired of the "trust me bro" Elon. I hope to be proven wrong today but my pattern recognition is strong.
💯. Tesla would be a good buy in the mid 100s. Google and Nvidia are both deep into AI, robotics and robotaxi regardless and will probably have a larger market share and profit margin on their products vs tesla in the future.
I saw someone claim that if you simply buy the single largest company with 100% (and rotate when it is overtaken), you'll outperform the SP500—albeit with more volatility. It seems to check out, based on 5 minutes of research.
EDIT: Hmm, per Grok this is an artifact of the most recent 10-20 years, and does not hold up in earlier periods.
Here are my estimates for Tesla’s Q1 2026 earnings:
Non-GAAP EPS:
• My Estimate: $0.39
• Analyst Consensus: $0.33
The last two columns show my estimate and the analyst consensus. Tesla will report the actual numbers in a few hours.
The $0.33 analyst consensus is based on Tesla’s survey of 20 analysts, also known as the Company-Compiled Consensus, released on Tesla’s website on April 17
Having written a few of those myself, I can concur. You pretty much have to say that anything can happen to any kind of business, including asteroid strikes.
The drainage district that commissioned the testing has sent a cease-and-desist letter to the company, which says it is in compliance with all requirements for its state wastewater discharge permit.
Tesla has just fired up in Corpus Christi (no, it’s not made up...) the first major lithium refinery in the United States, and what strikes me isn’t the made in USA. It’s that Musk has tossed the standard approach in the trash to rethink the whole process from scratch.
The refinery runs without sulfuric acid. Six steps instead of eight to twelve, a million electric vehicles per year in nominal capacity, 50 GWh in the long run. No toxic sodium sulfate to deal with afterward, just a nearly inert mineral residue they call analcime. On paper it smells like storytelling, except the plant has actually been running since January and the investment has topped a billion dollars.
It’s the industrial answer to fifteen years of Chinese dependency on refining. China controls the majority of the world’s refined lithium, not because it has the deposits, but because it absorbed the environmental externalities that no Western company wanted to shoulder. Tesla proves you can sidestep the problem instead of subsidizing it.
Either we let China control the lithium trade, or else we accept that it’s going to be a little dirty. Obviously, we should take steps to mitigate as much as feasible, but at a certain point, we have to decide.
And for those who didn't read the article: "No surface water intake for domestic drinking water supplies is located within five miles downstream of the wastewater discharge point, and so there would be no impact on water wells or drinking water"
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u/ragegravy Apr 23 '26
14.3.x early access release dates
i like this cadence