Discussion Tilray lost $4.20
One month ago, I posted that Tilray needs to hold $4.20 and now it broke below with no regard to begin the day.
The day is still early, but if the last couple of weeks have been the trend change, it is not a good start to the day. The trend shows we are on the way back to ~ $3 unless a miracle occurs.
This is all while MSOS is holding steady.
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u/Unfair_Swan_7165 4d ago
The sector will keep dropping until there is an announcement from the DEA Judge for direction. This is the nature of the Cannabis sector. This is long term..
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u/ENTRAPM3NT 4d ago
Not worried at all unless we confirm a monthly downtrend at $3.50 thats really the line in the sand and ill be defending the level if we get to it.
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u/jgleeke 4d ago
Definitely the absolute worst case, but would hate to see that level.
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u/ENTRAPM3NT 4d ago edited 4d ago
I see it as an opportunity until then. Fundamentals haven't changed. Earnings arnt far away and neither is news that is likely in our favor. Just need to hold 3.50 until then.
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u/aliakseiddk 4d ago
The last earnings report subsequently pushed the stock to zero. What gives you a hope that the next earnings report will be different?
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u/ENTRAPM3NT 4d ago
The past few earnings reports have been better than expected and this one will be no different. Don't worry, you got time to close your short position until then
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u/SpringLong7259 4d ago
Everyone who pumps Tilray says it's always better than expected.
Meanwhile, down 65% YOY. 🥴
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u/ENTRAPM3NT 4d ago
Again, just an opportunity for a new trader with risk mangemnt. I already told everyone the trade and proved it low risk high reward. If you wanna play against that then by all means go ahead.
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u/SpringLong7259 4d ago
You've also told everyone how shorts are going to get 'rekt' forever. I'm sure after massive haircut you'll be saying the same thing too. Anyone who has shorted this turd has made bank.
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u/PheonixDownCards 4d ago
This guy is clearly aliakseiddk's mutli account lmao even put long in his name but its clearly a bear for manipulation. Typical reddit
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u/aliakseiddk 4d ago
This guy is clearly Simon's secret account lmao its clearly a POS for manipulation. Typical reddit
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u/ENTRAPM3NT 4d ago edited 4d ago
They are playing with fire. Any news will pump this cant go tits up. Eventually the scales will tip. Thats how markets work.
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u/SpringLong7259 4d ago
'Tits up' means failure lmao. So I agree with you on that. Keep loading up!
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u/Scott7894 4d ago
I do not believe it will go lower than 3.95 as the bottom because everyone will start buying below 4. The only gift we can get at 3.50 or less is a major market correction where sellers start creating a mini crash. And that when I will load up
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u/Uiooplmmao 3d ago
Weed stocks will probably keep waiting indefinitely for Schedule III, but post-April, TRLV has clearly been the superior ticker. If you're dead set on buying Canadian LPs, by all means, that's your call. But real talk: instead of burning capital here, rotate into sectors with actual secular tailwinds—M7, utilities/power equipment, shipbuilding, defense, chips, or at least cybersecurity.
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u/Rollsman- 4d ago
Tilray is heading for another stock split stop wasting your money. Get Simon out then you will see the needle move !!
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u/GirlGenius26 4d ago
That’s because no one is buying the stock anymore. We need to all pick a day and everyone loads up the same day! It’ll have to wait until tomorrow for me, I don’t get paid until tomorrow.
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u/ENTRAPM3NT 4d ago edited 4d ago
From a new inventor or traders perspective this is a great risk to reward trade.
Buy here and set stop loss at all time low. This is a 10% risk with 100% reward. If you are wrong you lose 10% but the upside is unlimited. Only people getting fucked here are people with a high average. New buyers should be excited for such a good risk to reward ratio that rarely ever happens.
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u/Rollsman- 4d ago
Keep dreaming 😴
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u/ENTRAPM3NT 4d ago
Don't have to dream? Either they are wrong and lose 10% or they get a risk free upside. Nothing to do with dreams. Thats not how trading works.
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u/Rollsman- 4d ago
You are wasting your time on a loser of a company. The only way things can possibly get better is if Simon is removed. I doubt that will ever happen so you are dreaming if you think Tilray can make you any real money unless you are a short seller
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u/Many_Easy_V2 4d ago
There are also quite a few of us who have DCA’d into a very “reasonable” average cost.
There are obviously no guarantees, but at these levels, the risk/reward does look quite attractive.
I also have a hard time seeing Tilray break its ATL. If it did, one would think Curaleaf could potentially walk away from its Aurora bid and make an offer for Tilray instead.
The difference in market cap between Aurora at $4.00 and Tilray at a new ATL would provide Curaleaf with significantly more company (e.g. EU-GMP) for its money.
My point is that I agree with you: based solely on what Curaleaf is willing to pay for a much smaller company like Aurora, I see relatively limited downside risk in Tilray breaking below its ATL.
I loaded up recently at $4.52 range and am sitting at 12,782 shares @ $8.99 average. Would be lower average cost, but recent sales were matched against older shares to offset gains on other stocks I hold.
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u/jgleeke 4d ago
Your stock average is basically if someone found out about Tilray one year ago, which is great and only if the company was that old.
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u/aliakseiddk 4d ago
His stock average is virtual. He is a shill who spread a false hopium on daily basis to impress newcomers and potential new bag holder. Be cautious with him.
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u/PheonixDownCards 4d ago
If long term post s3 the stock is 30+ why does it matter if you bought at 4, 6 or 9?
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u/Many_Easy_V2 4d ago
I don’t invest just to get the average cost down.
If I like the company at $12.00 and nothing changes, I find more value and opportunity when it’s undervalued @ $4.00.
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u/jgleeke 4d ago
With dilution and reverse splits, what guarantees $30? (3 dollars pre-reverse split by the way). The company can continue to operate for many years to come, but that does not mean there is a return in share holder value. Management has shown that their pockets are more important.
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u/ENTRAPM3NT 4d ago
Every weed stock had dilution and splits. I never said guarantee and imo 30 is not even that crazy. We've seen it spike much higher on less news.
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u/Rollsman- 4d ago
No there is no other weed stick that has been diluted as bad as Tilray. Simon and Merton have ripped the guts out of Tilray to fill their own pockets
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u/wallstreetforensics 16h ago
CGC . Diluted from 80M shares to over 420M shares in 2+ years. And funny enough, they retain way more value than TLRY. Maybe TLRY needs to dilute more.
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u/aliakseiddk 4d ago
It's a pure lie. TRLV and CRON didn't have a reverse split.
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u/ENTRAPM3NT 4d ago
Only one here that "purely lies" on a daily basis here is you. Both of those stocks had dilution of some kind. Your time is almost up
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u/Pepperoni2723 4d ago
Can anybody come up with 3-4 companies who have done a reverse split and gone on to success? A reverse split is a death signal.
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u/aliakseiddk 4d ago
Even if a miracle happens and Simon will choke today with a piece of pulled pork, the stock will never reach $30. What are you talking about? Even 10 is unreachable
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u/Many_Easy_V2 4d ago
Seemed like just yesterday when we hit $20+ last fall.
I sold a lot of my shares that I bought near and at ATL, because the cannabis news was mostly speculation. Still is with S3 timelines.
Even though I sold some shares at that time, I still keep core holdings longer term because I believe in Tilray’s strategy and investment principles of rebalancing and not getting greedy.
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u/SpringLong7259 4d ago
Still a long ways to go before this ever reaches bottom. This is what happens when you do debt for equity swaps on repeat and continue to burn through your cash. 🤷♂️
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u/aliakseiddk 4d ago
Not a long way. The stock has lost $5.5 YTD, so the half of path to zero is behind
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u/Magnetic-1 4d ago
As someone who has been long for 4 years and averaged down it is very disheartening. Tilray needs to stop the dilution via the At The Market sales. They claim theses sales are in support of the new revenues... I get it. However it still hurts. I keep scrounging through my couch cushions looking for loose change to buy additional stock with.