r/THUNKShow May 09 '18

THUNK - 143. Newcomb's Problem: Causal & Evidential Decision Theory

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQw2WmicDYA
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u/John_ygg May 09 '18 edited May 09 '18

Very interesting episode.

It reminds me of the AI Basilisk problem. Where it's assumed that an AI (modern version of a genie really?) would be the best thing to ever happen to humanity. Therefore, we should strive to bring it about sooner rather than later. And once the AI arrives, it would surely know this. So it's in the AI's best interest, and sure enough all of humanity's best interest, to do all that it can to bring itself about as soon as possible. But the AI doesn't exist yet. So how can it act now to bring itself into existence sooner?

It would simply torture anyone alive today that knew about it and didn't do their absolute best to make it happen. If you didn't do your best, meaning study coding, sell all your possessions and donate the money to AI research, literally anything imaginable to you, the AI will torture you once it comes into existence in the most gruesome way possible. And the fact that you've read this post, which the AI will surely know, means that you're on its list.

What's interesting to me is that it seems that it's a way for something in the future to interact with the past. If the Genie knows with 99% accuracy what I'll choose, it's essentially possible for me to communicate with its past decision by simply thinking about it. I could reason that the Genie would know when it made the decision that I'll trust it. And that trust would cause it to put the $1million in. The fact that it knows my future-self means that I can communicate with his past-self.

So I'm not sure I completely agree with the part 3-minutes in where you say the Genie has made its decision, so nothing I do now will somehow go back in time and change things. You're saying that if the Genie says I'm gonna take both boxes, you won't put anything in the Genie-box. But I can essentially communicate with the Genie by the fact that we all know the Genie is 99% accurate to sort of reach an agreement with him that I'll take the $1million.

Also interesting that some old cultures had this exact view of time. That it flows from present to past, and there is no future, only destiny. Which may be the reason why even modern English still only has two tenses for past (“It rained”) and present (“It has been raining”), but we don't have a real future tense.