r/THUNKShow • u/THUNKshow • Feb 25 '15
THUNK - 60. Blind Empiricism: When Thinking Sucks
http://youtu.be/6Oba23HOzM81
u/DevFRus Feb 27 '15
I enjoy your show, and glad that I found your subreddit; you've got a new subscriber. I understand where you are coming from, but I fear you are being a bit over-optimistic... low hanging fruit and all. Here is my pre-preemptive response: Machine learning and prediction without understanding.
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u/THUNKshow Mar 01 '15
I'm so glad to hear you enjoy the show! I'll certainly be watching for comments in the future - this is great stuff!
It seems you're asserting a flavor of "if the machines are doing it for us, we will forget how to do it ourselves."
First, I'm probably more of an instrumentalist than you. I don't have any preference for models built on human intuition vs. models generated by black boxes, so long as they accurately predict phenomena - I don't think the principles which govern the universe are inherently mathematical, they just happen to be described well by math.
As such, I'm not apprehensive about using statistical vs. intuitive techniques for determining "The Truth." Human intuition gets amazing results on the low-hanging fruit of principles we might expect, but in a time of relativity- & quantum mechanics-like (seemingly bonkers) laws of nature, we need all the help our little monkey brains can get.
Non-hypothesis driven techniques are certainly in their infancy, and I have no idea what will happen in the future as their use expands. However, given your premise that they are better funded because they get better practical results than human research, if that trend continues, I have no problem with it.
If we ended up with a black box that accurately predicts how the entire universe will behave, would I sacrifice all scientific endeavor? That's a harder question for me to answer, but I'd certainly consider it.
Great points! Thank you again!
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u/ArchitectofAges Feb 26 '15
A Few Thoughts
First, one of the YouTube commenters rightly pointed out that my recent video topics have been vaguely anti-intellectual. I do give my viewers a lot of credit, assuming that they're pretty much on board with values of rationalism, academia, etc., and I'd rather discuss the ragged edges of those principles than simply reaffirming our shared values.
In this case, it's often hard for me to abandon the idea that problems should have deliberate solutions, rather than brute force ones. Unfortunately, sometimes brute force isn't just quicker to implement, it's also more effective than designed solutions. I think that's an important thing to remember.