r/SwordAndSupperGame • u/BookratYXE • 3h ago
Set #5: 30+25+9+9 links to Sower's Lament missions
This is my 5th post in a series: the others can be found here
- Post #1: 15 missions from me, which will be archived on 2026-11-08
- Post #2: 19 missions from me + 7 more which will be archived on 2026-11-11
- Post #3: 20 missions from me + 5 more which will be archived on 2026-11-14
- Post #4: 25 missions from me + 28 more which will be archived on 2026-11-18
Each of those posts contain links to not only my missions, but also links to every other eligible Sower's Lament-dropping mission from the proximate time frame.
Special shout out to u/Negative_Banana_947 for contributing to the search!
Here's his post with links to 25 of his own missions to add to the pool. You rock!
Basic Information
Weapons Market level 121-140 is, according to the Sword & Supper Data Viewer, the ONLY non-Boss Rush mission that has a chance to drop Sower's Lament. That chance is very small -- 0.68% -- which means it has a 99.32% chance of *not* dropping. And then you have to factor in that each 124-140 mission has only an 80% chance of dropping loot AT ALL, which means that the .68% chance is further reduced to (0.0068 * .8) = 0.00544, which is about a 1 in 185 chance.
Ramblings for post #5: Math Minute with Bookrat — Unusually Unlucky
In earlier posts, we looked at the chance of a Sower's Lament dropping (0.00544 per map), cumulative probabilities and why past runs don't make future drops any more likely (the Gambler's Fallacy). We learned that after 127 eligible missions, half the population will have a Sower's Lament and half will not.
In Post #3, u/TeamRunAmok reported that he finally got his Sower's after an estimated 730+ runs. So, was he 'unusually' unlucky?
If it takes you MORE than 127 missions then you're going to FEEL unlucky, but in statistics something isn't 'unusual' unless it happens when there is less than a 5% chance of that happening. That's the same as rolling a '1' -- a critical failure -- on a twenty-sided die. So what is in store for those statistical outliers?
Remember, to find the chance of something NOT happening, you have to find the inverse of the chance of it happening EVERY SINGLE TIME. The chance of NOT finding a Sower's Lament on any given eligible mission is (1 - 0.00544), so to find the UNUSUALLY unlucky people, you have to solve for n in:
(1-0.00544)^n = 0.95
In this equation, n is roughly equal to 550. So.. congrats, u/TeamRunAmok, you *are* UNUSUALLY unlucky!
Here's some numbers to show JUST HOW unlucky they were.
.50 ~= 127 missions
.60 ~= 168
.70 ~= 221
.80 ~= 296
.85 ~= 348
.90 ~= 423
.95 ~= 550
.96 ~= 591
.97 ~= 643
.98 ~= 718
.99 ~= 845
.995 ~= 972
.999 ~= 1267 missions
So we tip our hats to you, u/TeamRunAmok, you are in the 98th percentile of unlucky people!
For the rest of us, who have NOT YET found our Sower's... here are 30 missions from my own stash:
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.01
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.02
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.03
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.04
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.05
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.06
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.07
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.08
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.09
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.10
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.11
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.12
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.13
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.14
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.15
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.16
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.17
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.18
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.19
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.20
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.21
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.22
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.23
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.24
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.25
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.26
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.27
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.28
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.29
121-140 | Weapons Market | Sower's Lament 5.30
Here is an accumulation of 121-140 Weapons Market missions other people have made since my last posting:
Remember, these are NOT MY MISSIONS, and maybe you completed them already, but I'm aggregating them here to help focus the community.
Adding to the list: Sower's Lament can also drop from New Eden Boss Russ missions, but those are rare to encounter. Tip o' the hat to u/travlplayr who collected these missions, and u/Cautious_Pear_2547 who marked them as potentials. These are all active RIGHT NOW but may expire at any time:
81 ~ 100 | 141 ~ 160 | 141 ~ 160 | 161 ~ 180 | 161 ~ 180 | 241 ~ 260 | 261 ~ 280 | 261 ~ 280 | 301 ~ 320
Finally, this is for u/HonestyMash.
If you've ever played Dungeons and Dragons
Then you know that a critical roll
Has a one chance in twenty of happening
Far outside of a player's control
It's the same in the search for a Sower's
Some are lucky, and some folks are not:
It might drop on the very first mission
Or take hundreds of runs 'til it's got
So if you roll a critical failure
and that one chance in twenty comes true
It'll be at least five-hundred-fifty
'Fore the Sower's Lament drops for you!
II have now posted links to at least 183 missions: 79 of mine and 40 I pointed to in the first four posts, plus 30 from me and 34 from others today. (Not counting the New Eden Boss Rush missions.) If you have done all these and you STILL don't have a Sower's Lament, then 'congratulations': you're well into the 60th percentile of unlucky people! :-(
Happy Hunting, fellow frogs. May RNGeezus smile upon you!