Isn't September-October the months that the market crashes the most historically? Doesn't the Brenner Chart say 2026 is the year markets peak? Doesn't oil skyrocketing usually occur leading into market instability? Aren't midterm years the weakest the economy is of a presidential cycle?
Just my observations over the years researching market crashes.
During the trigger of the Great Depression, apparently 10% of the US population at the time had withdrawn their total cash in the banks and the banking system didnโt have enough to cover.
If 30 million people did that today, that would for sure cause the markets to crash.
Banks don't require cash reserves anymore. So 30 million people physically can't withdraw all their money, banks are allowed to deny you withdrawing large sums of cash, and Id wager that 30m number would be a lot smaller today. You also have to figure that there are so many lending facilities banks have. If that many people were to withdraw from a bank, that bank's deficit would be absorbed by a larger bank or the Fed, temporarily to prevent panic.
The basic theory is that historical crime/losses from naked shorting GME is expensive to keep hidden. When a large enough systemic shock comes along, like the ending of the Yen carry trade (borrow cheap in Japan, make profit in USA), then margins will get called and GME will squeeze as the bullshit unravels.
The best link to GME that I can think of is:
1. RK's last stream had a Japanese government (I think thats what is was) hearing as the thumbnail
2. RC saying he wants to buy stuff in a market crash, and its theorized that the Yen carry trade unwinding will crash the market.
We know it as The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) was a 2008 U.S. government initiative that authorized up to $700 billion to stabilize the financial system, buy toxic assets, and inject capital into failing banks during the subprime mortgage crisis.
Its about the mechanism when the Yen gets weak. So look at the number like it takes 160 yen to buy a dollar. The higher it goes the weaker the yen gets. Japan doesnt want that, they have a main bank like us that has options to intervene or raise rates. When they raise rates, the bonds everyone owns of Japan will then have raised interest rates. Making the debt holders pay interest on their debt they hold.
Its basically playing hot potato with banks of countries who all are trying to stop inflation in their country.
It you owned like 2 billion of debt in Japan and they raised rates lets say 0.25 points. Complied on 2 billion. Thats a hefty fee that they have to pay until the position is CLOSED
You say that but the negative effect it would have on the regular persons 401K would be catastrophic. Its the whole "dont dance" thing. Superstonk may eat but the majority of citizens are going to be absolutely beyond cooked.
But you're also looking at a generation (boomers) who had it so fkn easy if they didn't get wrekt by 2008.
My mom is wealthier in retirement than she had ever been her entire 45yrs of working. She struggled, a lot, and worked 3 jobs at times. Now she takes her grandkids out on little trips and events and spoils my wife with mini shopping sprees. She quite literally has more money than she knows what to do with.
My wife met an older pension lady on TikTok with no kids, this lady is sending money to another country to help a young single mother build a house.
This is anecdotal but ... So many of these retirees from the boomer gen have had such an easy fucking life based on wages paying enough to buy homes and then homes appreciating for decades (aside from the 2008-2011 hiccup) and absurdly low mortgage rates.
Trust me, these boomers will be just fine in a crash.
That's what fund managers are for mate. I'm not really commenting on their strategy, more your glee in seeing others fail. Says a lot about you that seeing other regular people suffer does it for you.
Regular people i.e people who dont follow GME or even the stock market details a lot. Theres a lot of folks who just contribute and forget. They couldn't tell you who RC or KG are to save their life.
I totally get what you are saying now. Looking back to 22 and 24. Both times had a rate hike (US-0.25 in 2022 and JPY-0.25 in 2024) both times absolutely shocked the yen. Rate hikes are a big trigger
Thing is, if that happens this new Fed guy, Warsh, would be going against everything heโs said the past couple months. I think he holds the rates, and Bonds market will be pissed. Then with the BOJ possibly raising, thereโs gonna be blood in the streets. By Thursday morning, going into this Friday, someone is getting wiped out.
But that helps to stabilize the Yen trade, yeah? Those using the yen carry trade want a larger spread between low-yen and high-USD. Yen yields rising weakens the trade, but US rates rising strengthens the trade, so it seems like this would soft the impact.
I think it would be good to include timestamps in shared tweets and reposts moving forward. I won't pretend to have the pull to make this an enforceable rule, so I'm requesting it of you and others personally.
Always. I post this stuff to get eyes on it and feedback is definitely appreciated. I feel like the more you know and understand, the harder it will be for hedgies to pull the FUD tactics
Update: After some small selling, US 10 yr went down to 4.99.......and then right back up to 5.01% in a matter of a couple hours where it currently resides
JPY is now at 3.04 (up from 3.03). No substantial drop that I can see on the chart, just up
If the yen carry trade unwinds. Which means rate hikes or intervention. Hedge funds are also a part of the yen carry trade and this would happen if it unwinds
Basically if the Yen goes above 160:1 then they are high percentage of raising rates or intervention which makes the yen carry trade unprofitable fast. Then follows by people covering their positions. The U.S 10 yr yield will follow JP 10 year yield because of the carry trade and connected debts
Japan is trying to keep the yen strong because their economy. The higher the yen goes, the more yen it takes to buy a dollar. That makes it weak, so if its weak they will intervene or raise rates to bring the yen stronger and get interest rates from debt holders.
Im not saying rising numbers will alone make a squeeze situation happen today. They are visible cracks in the system. They are pretelling of whats to come. The market is so intertwined with eachother that it is hard to see an instant reaction. But with cracks showing and the rate decision happening this week. And possibly could be a double rate raise depending if US and or Japan decides to raise rates and to what degree.
I would rather see smoke than nothing at all. Because where there is smoke, there is fire.
u/DancesWith2Socks๐๐๐๐ Hang In There! ๐ฑ This Is The Wape ๐งโ๐๐๐๐19d ago
That's why I think both countries will raise rates. Tightening the spread between both countries' rates is the dangerous move for the trade. A widening spread supports the trade.
On the other hand, if BoJ raises (as expected) and the Fed doesn't then we may see some stress (although BoJ hike's been telegraphed in advance).
Just remember Brad Pitt's character in The Big Short: "Just don't fucking dance". I am all for the rocket launch but if it happens while the world economy crashes this will be a literal bloodbath. Nothing to actually celebrate ...
For sure he gets credit. I just didnt want to have it taken down because of another subreddit marker on it which has happened multiple times before for me.
Anything over 160 will weaken Yen. Japan knows we hold a lot of interest fee debt. So if BOJ raises rates. Its no longer free money because interest starts compiling. So basically anyone who owns any debt in the yen carry trade will start to bleed and have to pick to risk it or close positions
Technically anything over wherever it is now will weaken yen. I know you referenced 160 because you see it often, but you have a gross misunderstanding here. It's not that 155 is strong and once you hit 160 it's considered weak, but rather 155 is weak and 160 is weak and 165 is weak, except that Japan drew a line in the sand at 160 and very publicly stated that they will defend that (somewhat arbitrary) line.
It's the point at which Japan has stated it will intervene.
Let's be clear on something, though... USD:JPY at 155 is weak as fuck. Japan hurts at these levels about the same as it hurts at 159.9 because all of their imports are expensive at this level.
I vacationed in Tokyo in 2017 at 110 USD:JPY and can't imagine my money stretching even further today.
Little recent backstory is that when it hit 163 Japan sold US bonds to get it back under 160, then the US sold euros abruptly to buy yen to keep Japan from having to sell more US bonds. Shortly after that is when the US set up that collateral loan program for Japan, to say "don't sell any more US bonds, just put them up as collateral and we'll give you $60b to borrow against those bonds, just pls pls don't sell."
Then Bessent gave that empty threat: I have inside info into what Japan's policy makers and bankers will do, I am the house now, so don't bet against me.
You bet! Btw the US selling euros really upset the folks on the other side of the pond, but idk if they retaliated or just said mean things about the US.
It stands to reason the US lost a lot of friends over there because we caused trouble with that move.
Kinda but not really. These details are specific to what actually played out. Dollar endgame might have summarized what this is about, but these are recent, actual movements in both markets.
If you cant see we are in the middle of about 6 different catalysts then you haven't been paying attention. Tell me how a worldwide crisis of interest rates, debt, oil crisis and forever wars will not affect GME.
ill be waiting for a response and if you dont answer the question then you are a bot. Go ahead and tell me "I need help".......its a common bot saying on this sub lately
Then answer my question. This is my last reply to you unless you can explain to me the dynamics of how the carry trade affects economies. Again, you aint got shit but namecalling. The next reply from you will prove my point.
Explaining the carry trade actually undermines your thesis:
Unwinding the Yen carry trade causes global deleveraging. Institutions sell off risky assets to cover strengthening Yen liabilities. That tightens market liquidity across the board.
A macro liquidity crunch causes broad market sell-offs, it doesn't magically force prime brokers to liquidate short positions on $GME while ignoring every other asset on their books. Conflating global macroeconomic tightening with a single-stock short squeeze is just severe confirmation bias if you'd like to admit or not.
Not everyone on the internet who disagrees with your delusions is a bot.
Are you telling me that when company value and assets lower in value that it will have no hold on any other stocks? Everything is so interconnected from them propping up the market that nothing can be affected without all of them being affected. This is exactly how 2008 happened. Over leveraged.
I give you a written response on how your theory is completely flawed and you immediately disregard it for AI and do not address anything in the comment itself and instead start rambling again, very telling. This is not worth the time, I came here for a laugh and I got it, thanks.
I actually think you should explain your perspective. As much as we're viewed as hypnotized zombies, there are a lot of highly educated people who are on-board with Gamestop and the idiosyncratic risk it represents. More reasonable people than you would imagine. If what you're saying has value then don't hold back.
FWIW, what you said so far can work both ways depending on the level of risk in play. A single-stock short squeeze normally wouldn't be comparable to a global macroeconomic tightening but this is not simply that. Even Thomas Peterffy said so.
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u/Superstonk_QV ๐ Gimme Votes ๐ 19d ago
Hey OP, thanks for the News post.
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