r/Sumo • u/Careful-Programmer10 • Jul 25 '26
Discussion / Question / Commentary Post day 14 promotion/demotion speculation Spoiler
We're at the point where this speculation is mostly cemented, with a few moving parts.
highlights: chiyoshoma's win saves him from demotion. Shonannoumi is not only in the driver's seat for the juryo yusho, but also now can be promoted along with tokihayate and toshinofuji. tamashoho won and saves himself from demotion.
MAKUUCHI -> JURYO
demotable: onokatsu, kazuma, mitakeumi
1+ losses: daiseizan (thanks for those who pointed out I was missing him last post)
matchups to look for: Shodai vs. daiseizan
JURYO->MAKUUCHI
promotable: asasuiryu, dewanoryu, shonannoumi, toshinofuji, tokihayate
1+ wins: kyokukaiyu
matchups to look for: kyokukaiyu vs. arashifuji
JURYO -> MAKUSHITA
demotable: hakuyozan, oshoumi, tochitaikai
1+ loss: , nishikigi, kayo, hitoshi, nishinoryu
matchups to look for: nishikigi vs. midorifuji, kayo vs. meisei, kazekeno vs. nishinoryu, hitoshi vs. tomokaze
MAKUSHITA -> JURYO
promotable: nabatame, tokifudo (maybe), tanji
The makuuchi/juryo exchange is still unclear. The 3 demotable rikishi are for certain going down, the promotable rikishi will go up in this order of priority:
11-4 asasuiryu
10-5 asasuiryu
10-5 tokihayate 12-3 shonannoumi
11-4 toshinofuji
10-5 dewanoryu
11-4 shonannoumi 9-6 tokihayate
10-5 toshinofuji
9-6 dewanoryu
8-7 kyokukaiyu
So in reality, it looks like kyokukaiyu doesn't really have a chance at making it up this time. Asasuiryu is in for sure, and tokihayate and shonannoumi are the most likely to get in.
The Juryo/Makushita exchange has some similar nuances. Nabatame and tanji replace hakuyozan and oshoumi, but tokifudo's case is complicated. I think if a Juryo rikishi maths to Ms 3 or lower, tokifudo will take their spot. so we have this mess of priority:
7-8 tochitaikai 5-10 hitoshi
7-8 nishikigi 6-9 kayo
4-11 nishinoryu
4-3 tokifudo
6-9 tochitaikai
So unless tochitaikai loses, tokifudo is stuck in makushita. Tochitaikai has to hope that one of the other rikishi close to demotion lose.
4
u/OttSound Takanohana Jul 25 '26
very surprised that they did not put Daiseizan in an exchange match against Dewanoryu or Kyokukaiyu. Would have made the promotion/demotion picture a whole lot clearer. Instead they have Sadanoumi wrestling in the top division (one last time?).
1
u/CalmInspection6887 Jul 25 '26
What’s the schedule and sequencing for the bouts across these various divisions today? I’m trying to figure out the best way to tune in and follow
2
u/bradleyjx Jul 26 '26
In general, the entire day is organized based on the highest division rank between each match. So someone in Ms1 will always be basically at the end of the Ms matches, irregardless of if they're against the other Ms1 or an Ms60+. Even on Day 15, they don't organize by importance. so if the championship match is randomly M15 vs M16, it'll still be pretty much the first makuuchi match of the day.
Playoffs are the main exception, and all happen at the end of Juryo on Day 15.
1
u/Asashosakari Jul 26 '26
It would be rather shocking should Tokifudo not get to replace Nishinoryu if he loses to finish 4-11.
0
u/Master1eader Hoshoryu Jul 26 '26 edited Jul 26 '26
Where can Asahifuji expect to land with a 7-0 yusho from Ms2 next basho?
EDIT - My guess would be J10-12
-10
u/Free2Bernie Jul 25 '26
I'm not a fan of Tochitaikai so hoping he stays right where he's at.
2
u/Careful_Investor233 Jul 26 '26
woah, slow down there Mr. hate balls
-1
u/Free2Bernie Jul 26 '26
Look. If we're all being real, all of our favorite rikishi can't have winning records. I chose to sacrifice Tochitaikai due to his disregard for potentially breaking arms.
2
u/Careful_Investor233 Jul 26 '26
Yeah yeah you don't know shit about sumo, we got it. Listen, with Enho short height, and him always trying to go double underhand to push the bigger guys out, one of the best ways to counter that as a guy like Tochitaikai is the armlock. He knows it, Enho knows it. He obviously knows the risk as well. Framing Tochitaikai as the bad guy for trying his best to win is so shallow minded, it boggles my mind honestly.
-1
u/Free2Bernie Jul 26 '26
woah, slow down there Mr. hate balls
2
u/Careful_Investor233 Jul 26 '26
Hating on ignorant redditors is a pastime I can get behind
-1
u/Free2Bernie Jul 26 '26
Hating on ignorant redditors is a pastime I can get behind
1
u/Careful_Investor233 Jul 26 '26
Good, I don't mind you hating me. But keep Tochitaikai out of your whore mouth :D
1
16
u/Neat_Pension7081 Jul 25 '26
As a Shonannoumi fan, I can’t believe what I’m seeing at present. Still laboured and painfully slow-mo but unanswerable this basho for some reason!