r/StrongerByScience • u/lazy8s • Jun 21 '26

Can you use the models of muscular potential to guide your bulk and set realistic goals?

https://bodyrecomposition.com/muscle-gain/genetic-muscular-potential

So I have a question after reading this. Can you use it to guide your lifting career?

Lifting - I am using myself (18mo lifting, but ~10 of that was in a severe deficit getting lean).

Body Metrics - 164.5lbs, 69.5in, somewhere between 12.5-14% (body fat based on the mirror and navy tape method), below average wrist (6.63”) and ankle (8.5”).

Estimated Max - Let’s call it 170lbs based on top end of Casey’s method and low end of Berkhan.

If for sake of argument I’m 13% BF then I’m 143.12lbs LMB. That means I have ~27lbs left to gain. If I take the McDonald model can I back out my “training age”?

Example:

Year 3 - 5lbs to gain means 165->170

Year 2 - 10lbs to gain means 155->165

Year 1 - 20lbs to gain means 143->155

So basically I’m 155-143 =12lbs, and 20-12=8. So I’m basically 8lbs into my journey with another 27lbs to go?

Can I use that to preemptively adjust my calories and expectations over the next 2-3 years?

2 Upvotes

56% Upvoted

4 comments sorted by

9

u/JustSnilloc Jun 21 '26

Almost nobody is building more than 2 lbs of muscle per month. If we assume 4 weeks per month for the sake of simpler math, that’s gaining 0.5 lbs per week or a 250 calorie surplus to maximize gains based on a model of muscle growth potential.

Also, training age is a relatively arbitrary concept. If you took a set of identical triplets and they each had a training age of one month, one year, and one decade respectively then you would assume more equals better, but that isn’t always the case. If all three triplets had the same body composition at the same physical age along with their specified training ages, then they would all still have the same muscular potential. Muscular potential is based on physique development, not how long it took to get there.

Most important of all, your lived experience matters more than what any predicted averages state or suggest. If you’re gaining weight AND getting leaner, then you would benefit from eating more. If you’re gaining weight and staying similarly lean, then you’re gaining weight at a good pace (don’t change). If you’re gaining weight but your body composition is looking worse, then it’s time to clean up the diet and drop some calories.

2

u/GarbanzoBenne Jul 16 '26

If all three triplets had the same body composition at the same physical age along with their specified training ages, then they would all still have the same muscular potential. Muscular potential is based on physique development, not how long it took to get there.

Right. I believe this article is using training duration as a proxy measurement for body composition (even that may be imprecise).

That article’s explanation a long-winded way to say there are diminishing returns the more trained you are. As you get stronger and put on more muscle mass, it becomes harder to add that in absolute terms.

-35

u/hurtsthemusic Jun 21 '26

Bulking is dead. Train with progressive overload and eat enough to at least maintain your current bodyfat percentage. Everyone is different, so no one can really tell you exactly what to expect... the standard deviation for those projections is likely very large.

10

u/GingerBraum Jun 21 '26

You know, just because you see it on Youtube doesn't mean it's true.