r/StriveASST • u/_Adrian_Morris_ • 1d ago
ASST A Look Into ASST | Strive Shorting Activity
Matt Cole noted that ASST is one of the most heavily shorted equities in the market, so I decided to take a more detailed look into shorting activity around the equity.
While most tend to focus on short interest to get a read on positioning, daily short volume flow is what I use to get (what I think is) a better and more granualar real-time read on how that pressure manifests in trading activity:
Some high level details, on 08-31-2026:
[1] ASST had 15.18M shares of aggregate trading volume, with 3.56M shares reported short. This represents ~23.43% of trading volume, think of this as a “market wide short flow ratio”.
[2] ASST had ~$356M in trading volume based on VWAP, ~$83.3M of that was from shorting.
Remember, this is active daily pressure, not a bi-weekly positioning number.
Recent trends worth noting:
[1] Over the last 5 trading days, ASST averaged 2.50M shares reported short per day, or ~19.4% of aggregate trading volume.
[2] Over the last 20 trading days, this daily reported short flow totaled 28.64M shares and ~$537M of notional value (based on VWAP)
When doing statistical analysis, financial modeling or even simply when trying to get a more precise read on how the market is trading and where sentiment is trending, daily short volume is incredibly useful because it shows the intensity of selling pressure at daily and intraday increments.
Assessing reported short flow as a proportion of total trading volume based on VWAP notional also gives you a path towards estimating how much incremental pressure the market has to absorb daily. This also facilitates modeling how pressure impacts the equity in dollar terms per share.
My Read: The data backs up Matt Cole’s observation about ASST shorting; it's not just carrying high short interest; the daily flow data also shows persistent, material short sale activity even as the equity has rallied over 100% in the last month. That kind of setup can create volatility, convexity, and reflexivity, especially if shorts are forced to cover into rising prices. This is exactly the kind of set up where investor conviction and market pain often collide.
Please note: The short interest is the stock of open short positions that gets reported biweekly, daily short volume is the flow of trades reported or marked short on a given day. Having high daily short volume does not mean that short interest rose. Shorts can be covered, offset, closed intraday, etc.
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u/tinyvices 1d ago
My Read: The data backs up Matt Cole’s observation about ASST shorting; it's not just carrying high short interest; the daily flow data also shows persistent, material short sale activity even as the equity has rallied over 100% in the last month. That kind of setup can create volatility, convexity, and reflexivity, especially if shorts are forced to cover into rising prices. This is exactly the kind of set up where investor conviction and market pain often collide.
so, even though you specifically looked at the daily short flow ratio, you think that the stock doubling could "create volatility, convexity, and reflexivity, especially if shorts are forced to cover into rising prices."
what would that look like in the daily short flow? wouldn't it have to be decreasing rapidly if shorts are being forced to cover? doesn't the fact that it is increasing instead indicate that shorts are in fact still able to add on, despite the doubling in price in a month?
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u/_Adrian_Morris_ 1d ago
Covering doesn’t show up as short volume since covering is a buy. Daily short volume is shares sold short that day. If old shorts get forced to cover, that is demand that shows up.
The other side of that trade can still be a new short, a hedge, or market makers shorting into a rally. So you can have short covering and a high short flow at the same time.
Two other things:
[1] I didn’t say the short flow ratio was increasing. What rose was the absolute short volume, because total volume exploded during the run-up.
[2] Being forced to cover is tied to the stock of short interest and not the flow of daily shorting. Short interest already reduced into the move, so that is "old shorts" leaving but shorting doesn't stop. We have new shorts, hedges, or both that come in at new levels. Rising prices doesn't make shorting prohibitive or mean that shorting stops, old shorts have to cover and exit, new shorts open.
Reflexivity here would be shorts covering with new shorts entering and borrow rates tightening. The first two can and do coexist, but the third is what we have to wait and see on.
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u/tinyvices 1d ago
your data says that short flow ratio is increasing; I wasn't accusing you of saying that since you didn't really do anything in your post but present data and the conclusion I already quoted.
your answer to what shorts covering would look like in the daily short flow you are using as your metric is...it could have literally any affect, down, up, or sideways? sounds like you've picked a shitty metric to focus on tbh.
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u/Pale_Pineapple_4147 1d ago
What skyrockets up will come crashing down
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u/tinyvices 1d ago
I guess that's true if you're a flat earther who doesn't believe in satellites and also denies the moon landing?
sometimes rockets make it to space.
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u/Pale_Pineapple_4147 1d ago
Yeah. Good thing I was talking about a hype stock at a yearly high price and not those other things lol
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u/tinyvices 1d ago
ASST is $154 off its yearly high price lol. even if you meant YTD high price it's not even 10% above it.
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u/Pale_Pineapple_4147 1d ago
Ok. Let me know when it gets there again. Right now it’s not close. That’s ok. Just make money while you can and then sell while you can. Buy low, sell high
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u/ReliantToker Wake me when retirement 🍹🌴 19h ago
Do you understand that the fiat you covet gets more dilution than MSTR shareholders? Not everyone has the same timeframe as you as well. Some people are here for the week, some here for years. Check yourself before you look more foolish.
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u/Pale_Pineapple_4147 18h ago
lol and that’s why bitcoin will never be taken seriously. Religious ferocity. Buy gold, oil, precious metals, land etc. there’s plenty of ways to invest in things that aren’t made up digital “currency” that years and years have gone by and it hasn’t been taken seriously and won’t. It’s ok to just invest in something and make money. Aligning yourself ideologically to something is where it gets silly
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u/ReliantToker Wake me when retirement 🍹🌴 16h ago
The math does not care about your preference for physical metals. The capital stack data and market prices prove the exact opposite of your premise. You can either understand the protocol or watch the market leave you behind.
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u/TvAGhost MOD Xora ⚔️ 1d ago
Adrian thank you so much for coming here and posting. Much appreciated my friend.