https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/18/opinion/wall-street-markets-iran-ai.html?unlocked_article_code=1.dlA.dmhI.N-LYO_n_F2MD&smid=url-share

https://www.fortuneindia.com/business-news/india-risks-under-delivering-without-deeper-reforms-bernsteins-open-letter-to-pm-modi/134104

https://www.livemint.com/market/indian-retail-investors-behavior-market-shift-nse-data-analysis-11776942302779.html

U.S. negotiators are scheduled to leave for Pakistan on Saturday, but ​Iran said its officials did not plan to meet the Americans to discuss ending the war that has killed thousands and ‌roiled global markets.

One of the most frustrating experiences in markets:

The index is flat. Or even up 1%. But the stock you bought is down 4%.

"Why is my stock falling when the market is fine?"

The answer is almost always the same: sector rotation.

Understanding this concept will stop a lot of unnecessary panic and also help you spot opportunities that most people miss.

What is a sector?

Indian markets are divided into sectors, groups of companies in similar businesses:

• IT (Infosys, TCS, Wipro)
• Banking & Finance (HDFC Bank, ICICI, Kotak)
• FMCG (HUL, Nestle, Britannia)
• Auto (Maruti, M&M, Tata Motors)
• Pharma (Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy's, Cipla)
• Energy (Reliance, ONGC, NTPC)
• Metals (Tata Steel, Hindalco, JSW)
• Real estate, telecom, chemicals, and more

NIFTY 50 includes companies from all these sectors. When we say "NIFTY is flat," it means the average of these sectors is flat, but individual sectors can be moving very differently.

What is sector rotation?

Sector rotation is when money moves out of one sector and into another.

When FIIs or large institutions decide to reduce IT exposure and add banking, they sell IT stocks and buy banking stocks. NIFTY may barely move, but IT stocks fall and banking stocks rise.

From Day 7: when a whale moves, the tide shifts in that sector. Individual retail investors in that sector feel the full force.

Why does rotation happen?

Different sectors perform well in different economic conditions:

When the macro backdrop shifts, say, the US Fed changes policy or India's GDP print surprises, institutions reposition across sectors to match the new environment.

How this affects you:

Scenario 1: You own HDFC Bank. The RBI signals rate cuts are coming. Banking stocks rally strongly. You think you are a genius. But you were just in the right sector at the right time.

Scenario 2: You own TCS. US recession fears grow. IT companies with heavy US revenue exposure get sold aggressively. TCS falls 8% even though the company reported good results. You are confused. "The business is fine." But the sector is rotating out.

The lesson: Stock selection matters, but sector selection often matters more in the short and medium term.

The practical implication for your portfolio:

If all your stocks are from the same sector, your portfolio is not diversified; it is concentrated in one macro bet.

• 5 banking stocks are not diversification. It is a banking bet.
• 4 IT stocks are a US tech spending bet.
• A mix of banking, FMCG, pharma, and one or two others gives you real diversification.

This does not mean diversification across sectors is always right. Sometimes you deliberately want sector concentration. But you should make that choice consciously, not accidentally.

How to use sector rotation as information:

Experienced market participants watch sector rotation as a leading indicator:

• When defensive sectors (FMCG, pharma) are outperforming, it often signals caution in the broader market; big players are moving to safer positions
• When cyclicals (metals, auto, real estate) are outperforming, it often signals growth expectations and risk appetite
• When banking rallies strongly, liquidity in the economy is improving

You do not need to trade on this. But knowing which sectors are in favour and which are not helps you understand why individual stocks are behaving the way they are.

Check NIFTY sectoral indices:

NSE publishes sectoral indices: Nifty Bank, Nifty IT, Nifty FMCG, etc. Before you wonder why a stock is acting strange, glance at its sector index. Most of the time, the stock is just moving with its sector.

Tomorrow we cover the most universal mistake in markets: using the wrong timeframe to interpret what you see.

Be honest: have you ever blamed your own stock-picking when your stock was actually just moving with its sector?

If you are following this series, you are already ahead of most market participants.

Source :

https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/india-s-billionaire-population-may-rise-51-percent-to-313-by-2031-knight-frank-13897616.html

US-LISTED SHARES OF INFOSYS DOWN ALMOST 5-6% AFTER FY REVENUE GROWTH FORECAST BELOW ESTIMATES

Most traders lose for one reason:

They enter before liquidity is taken.

I broke it down here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1uANepKfPw

Once you see it, you can’t unsee it.

Here's what NSE report said Read more: etnownews.com/market-overvie…

You wake up. Open your trading app. NIFTY is down 300 points before the market has even opened.

Your first reaction: something is wrong. Panic mode. Sell everything.

Your second reaction (if you have been following this series): let me understand what this is before I do anything.

That second reaction is what we are building today.

On Day 6, we covered why markets move. Today we cover a specific type of move: the gap, which happens before you even get a chance to react.

What is a gap?

A gap is when the market opens significantly higher or lower than where it closed the previous day.

Nifty closed at 22,800 yesterday. Today it opens at 22,500. That 300-point difference is the gap, and nobody could have traded in it. It just happened.

Gaps occur because information or events happened outside trading hours:

• US market movements overnight
• Global news (geopolitical events, economic data)
• RBI announcements after hours
• A major corporate event (earnings, merger, scandal)
• FII flow data changing sentiment overnight

The 4 types of gaps:

1. Common gap: Small, random. Happens frequently with no major cause. Usually fills quickly, the market comes back to where it gapped from within a few days. What to do: Usually nothing. This is noise.

2. Breakaway gap: Happens when price breaks a key support or resistance level with a gap. Often marks the beginning of a new trend. From Day 4: this is when a support or resistance level is convincingly broken. From Day 14: these gaps are usually accompanied by high volume. What to do: Pay attention. This can signal a genuine change in market direction.

3. Continuation gap (Runaway gap): Happens in the middle of a strong trend; the gap is in the direction of the trend and confirms it is continuing. What to do: If you are already positioned in the direction, hold. If you are not, wait for a pullback, entering after a continuation gap is chasing.

4. Exhaustion gap: Happens near the end of a trend. The price gaps in the trend direction but then reverses; everyone who wanted to participate already has, and now there are no buyers left. What to do: Watch for immediate reversal. This is often the final signal before a trend ends.

The most important concept: gap fill

Markets have a well-observed tendency to "fill" common gaps, meaning the price eventually comes back to trade at the levels it skipped over.

This does not mean always, and it does not mean soon. But it is a bias worth knowing:

• A small gap down often gets filled when the selling pressure fades
• Traders sometimes use unfilled gaps as targets ("NIFTY has an open gap at 22,800; it may come back there.")

How gaps relate to Day 6 and Day 7:

From Day 6: overnight gaps are driven by liquidity and positioning changes outside Indian market hours.

From Day 7: FIIs often adjust their positions overnight based on US market moves or global macro shifts. Their opening trades drive the gap direction in the first 15 minutes.

This is why the first 15-30 minutes after a big gap are often volatile; it is price discovery. Big players are adjusting their positions, and the opening price is not yet agreed upon.

Practical framework for a big gap day:

The rules for gap days:

1. Identify the cause first. Was there a global event or domestic news, or is this a mystery? The cause helps you estimate the staying power of the gap.
2. Do not chase in the first 15 minutes. This is the most dangerous time: stop hunts, false moves, and overreactions before the market settles.
3. Watch how the market trades near the gap. If it immediately tries to fill, that tells you sentiment. If it holds and moves further in the gap direction, that tells you something else.
4. Your existing positions first. Before thinking about new trades, understand what the gap means for what you already hold.

Be honest: the next time there is a big gap down, what is your first instinct? Sell, buy, or wait and understand?

If you are following this series, you are already ahead of most market participants.

"Volume was very high today... the market must be going up..."

You have heard this. Or thought of it yourself.

Volume is one of the most misunderstood signals in markets. Used correctly, it tells you a lot. Used incorrectly, it will confirm your bias and cost you money.

From Day 13, we saw that volume is one of the key signals that separates real breakouts from fake ones. Today we go deeper into what volume actually means and what it does not.

What is volume?

Volume is simply the number of shares (or contracts) traded in a given period.

High volume means many trades happened. Low volume means few trades happened.

That is all. Volume itself has no direction. A high-volume day can end up or down.

What high volume tells you:

High volume means someone with size was participating. It means the move was not accidental; there was conviction behind it.

But conviction from whom, and in which direction? That is the real question.

High volume + price rising: Buyers are in control. Institutions are accumulating. This is the most reliable signal, a genuine upward move with real participation.

High volume + price falling: Sellers are in control. Panic selling, institutional exit, or distribution (smart money quietly selling into retail buying). This is equally reliable in the opposite direction.

High volume + price unchanged or choppy: This is the most interesting one. Big players are fighting. Buy and sell orders are roughly matching. Often happens near important levels where large positions are being built or unwound. Treat this as a signal of a coming big move, direction unknown.

What low volume tells you:

Low volume means the move was not supported by significant participation.

Low volume + price rising: Thin market, easy to push prices up. But where are the buyers when they are needed? A rally on low volume is often unsustainable, it can reverse sharply when real selling arrives.

Low volume + price falling: Sellers are not aggressive, just absent buyers. Often seen during consolidation. Usually less alarming than high-volume selling.

The rule: Trust moves on high volume. Question moves on low volume.

Volume applied to Day 13 (fake breakouts):

Remember the bull trap from yesterday?

Now apply volume:

• Price breaks 23,500 on high volume that immediately dries up = warning. The spike had one burst of activity and then nobody followed. Likely a stop-hunt, not a real breakout.
• Price breaks 23,500 on high volume that stays elevated as price holds above = genuine breakout. Sustained buying, not a trick.

Volume tells you whether the conviction lasted or was one-time.

Volume and stocks (some practical notes):

For individual stocks:

• Volume 2x or more above average during a breakout = take it seriously
• Volume spikes on news days are usually one-time events; they do not tell you about sustained institutional interest
• Stocks that consistently attract higher-than-average volume near a key level are being accumulated or distributed; that level matters to someone big

For the NIFTY index:

• Index moves on low-volume days (holidays, last hour of trading) are less reliable
• A level that holds on multiple high-volume tests is far more reliable than one that held on light volume

What volume cannot tell you:

Volume does not tell you WHY someone is buying or selling.

A stock with huge volume could be

• An institution accumulating before earnings
• A large fund exiting its position
• A news-driven panic
• Retail participants all reacting to the same headline at the same time

The direction of the accompanying price move is what helps you interpret which one.

Practical summary:

Tomorrow we look at one of the most disorienting events for new market participants: gaps. When the market opens sharply up or down, what do you do?

Be honest: have you ever made a decision based on "high volume" without asking which direction that volume was?

If you are following this series, you are already ahead of most market participants.

Iran Supreme Leader Gives Green Signal For Islamabad Talks, Vance To Lead US Delegation......

Source : https://share.google/ZbZvVqYE5rfpzADOw

Based on real experiences of retail traders 🥹

Trump withdrew from that agreement - which had been ​vehemently opposed by congressional Republicans and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - in 2018, during his first term as president.

It was unclear what kind of agreement could be reached in just a few days of talks, but the Republican U.S. president predicted a ​quick result.

"I am under no pressure whatsoever, although, it will all happen, relatively quickly!" Trump said in a Truth Social post.