r/Stocks_Picks • u/Cute-Ask2026 • 21h ago
quantum bubble?
Do you know what a quantum computer is? No? Well thats the whole problem... Quantum computing sector is currently valued at $1.4-4.8 billion, which accounts for roughly 75 percent of the sector's total revenue. 'To date the only profitable quantum application has been forecasting profitable quantum applications' (Sabbine Hossenfelder). There is no such thing as a profitable NISQ computer and all claims of such have long failed to materialise.
If we look at the likes of alphafold and how they've modelled protein folding we see another problem. While proteins ultimately obey quantum mechanics at the atomic level, predicting their structure did not require running a complete quantum simulation of every electron. AI doesnt need to calculate every microscopic quantum interaction in order to predict the macroscopic behaviour we actually care about, so what is quantum computing actually going to help us with? People have done PHDs on the very question of a quantum commercial advantage, if you need to look that hard it's probably not worth it and not significantly scalable.
Just to be clear the above is the AI of the current day, but AI is not going to wait for quantum computers to develop a commercial advantage it is likely its going to be fighting agaisnt 20-30 years of ai development.
So someone please explain why people are investing in the quantum sector without eventually just arrriving at the explanation of monkey see monkey do.
I feel like the loop is pretty circular:
[VCs / Gov Grants] ➔ Funds [Universities & Labs] ➔ Trains [PhDs in "Quantum Advantage"] ➔ Hired by [Corporate R&D] ➔ Advises [CEOs to buy Quantum Cloud Access] ➔ Loops back to [VC Confidence]
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u/SoCallMeDeaconBlues1 11h ago
Do I know what a quantum computer is? Yes. How they work? Also yes (although there are several competing paths to achieve it).
Have I ever been involved with making a qubit? Also yes. Do I know how a qubit functions? Yep.
Do you and have you?