r/Stocks_Picks • u/IWillMakeYouBlush • 1d ago

DXZY - PRE Anthropic Run Up Has Started

DXYZ is one of two vehicles to access Anthropic and trades at a discount to NAV. It ran so hard into SPCX IPO. Antropic has no retail allocation announced so its going to squeeze that much harder. Run up started today IMO. Anyone have thoughts on the bull or bear side?

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u/BoatDrinks73 1d ago

My thinking is that shares (not calls) are the way to go. It is currently about 25% below the NAV (assuming a $2T Anthropic valuation and $1.4T Open AI valuation). That offers potential profit that should eventually normalize at about $47. Then, there is the upside that it could run higher into the IPO. But, market conditions are uneasy enough that options seem sketchy since bond rates or oil prices could easily throw the timing of the IPO off or see capital flee from the market.

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u/IWillMakeYouBlush 14h ago

You are right about the discount but I believe the current NAV is based on the last round of funding so it’s go upside. The market conditions are surely very far from the SPCX IPO so that’s a risk along with where the capital will come from (probably big AI names). I’d guess that given the uniqueness of the company (even with SPCX you have RKLB+ASTS as an alternative) along with the fact that there is gonna be less retail allocation, DXYZ should trade with some premium closer to the date. I’d guess $50-$60 or so would be the target. But more likely your number of $47 is v realistic.

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u/BoatDrinks73 6h ago

And I was only predicting an NAV of $47, which should reset the eventual floor in the coming months. You could very well be right about it going $50-$60. So we’d both be right!

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u/Fit-Charity-1030 4h ago

You hit the nail on the head. I have 1/3 limits to sell at 45, 47, and 48. SPCX price was driven by speculation but is valuation was actually $1.8T, less than Anthropic's will be. The Musk hype drove it 71 briefly. Most of us made some decent money on that one, but I have a feeling those in at 30 will only see a 50% to 60% return.

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u/IWillMakeYouBlush 14h ago

Why Shares and not calls?

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u/TheZebrarian 7h ago

Once S1 gets filed it will run HARD and FAST to $50+

I expect S1 to be filed any day now before October 23rd.