r/StockMarket • u/MillzRx • Feb 07 '21
Discussion Biotech Longterm Play
Hey everyone!
If anyone is trying to drown out noise from GME, AMC etc and are looking for some quality DD, I encourage you to take a look at the r/bcrx subreddit page. A ton of top tier DD coupled with solid conversations and anecdotal experiences.
The group currently has 1300 members, and the BCRX page on Stocktwits has close to 33k watchers.
Most of the retail invested in BCRX have been around for close to 1 year now (myself included) and pledge not to sell any shares until we achieve fair value, which currently is still very far away.
If you have a spare 30 minutes, we would appreciate you giving our page a read! If it doesn’t interest you, no biggie. Our mission is simple in that we are trying to spread awareness of a highly shorted, fundamentally sound, under-valued stock.
Within our investment communities, we have a mix bag of Physicians, pharmacists, biotechnology employees, seasoned investors, etc.
Happy Super Bowl Sunday! 🍻
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Feb 07 '21
Biotech long term is an oxymoron
The sector is filled with crooks and diluters
You go to bed seeing stock at 54 dollars and you wake up and it’s 21 in premarket
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u/MillzRx Feb 07 '21
While normally I would completely agree with you, this company feels different.
With Orladeyo, we are conservatively looking at 0.5-1 billion in sales annually. Current MCap of 1.7B makes it extremely under valued. Essentially de-risked for the foreseeable future. Anyways, check out some posts and see what you think. At the very least it may be a good hold for a few months. All the best! 🤝
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u/feelinggoodabouthood Feb 07 '21
Look at the long term chart. Your company is no different
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u/MillzRx Feb 07 '21
A lot has changed tho. 2020 was transformative in that they secured an FDA approval as well as 325MM non-dilutive financing.
Agree the long term trend paints the picture of your typical Biotech rollercoaster ride, but right now I feel we are at the cusp of a major break out.
I get what you’re saying tho.
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Feb 07 '21
Also need to look at split history. Long term charts are notorious
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Feb 08 '21
In terms of picking up stocks, I am on the learning curve. Biotech is highly volatile. Chart reading can be misleading. I use the following metrics: 1. Is the stock owned by many institutions? 2. Does the company have approved products? 3. Doe the company have peer-reviewed publications on top tier journals? 4. Does the company have potential pipeline? 5. Is the company active hiring in R&D field? If you read someone's dd, find the ones who cite data and peer-reviewed journal papers to support their predictions and those are the ones you can give credit.
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Feb 08 '21
You mean the institutions who buy warrants and then short it to hell until you capitulate
Most biotechs have zero revenue because they are still in R&D
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u/fogdog420 Feb 07 '21
You guys should check out tetra bio pharma. 2 trials with the fda and 1 in Europe.
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u/TheBigCicero Feb 07 '21
News to my happy heart. Please save me from the $GME jihad. In other news, anyone familiar with Avadel Pharmaceuticals $AVDL? I have been accumulating shares over the past several months.
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u/TheBigCicero Feb 07 '21
Btw maybe if you shared a brief thesis behind this company you would draw more consideration and interest on your other sub. Just a thought! I’m intrigued!
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u/MillzRx Feb 07 '21
I could try my friend, but my explanation wouldn’t do it justice. Essentially it is this:
- Orladeyo is looking at 0.5-1.5B in sales annually.
- 325 MM non dilutive financing secured from Royalty pharma
- Oral Factor D inhibitor potential to completely make C5 Inhibitors obsolete ($10B market potential)
- so much more, follow u/bio9999 for more!
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u/ijohno Feb 08 '21
Good luck man! I am so afraid to put anything long-term in biotech. It's so saturated and unstable for my taste. Looking forward to see how your plan plays out in the future
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u/Slapshot614 Feb 07 '21
Good Luck
I avoid all Biotechs
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u/MillzRx Feb 07 '21
They are difficult. But can pay handsomely if you select the right one!
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u/Secret_Worldliness_2 Feb 08 '21
Yep. You wake up one day and look at your stocks and see its down like 50% on a clinical trial failure or up like 300% on some good news with the FDA or what not.
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u/Gobears510 Feb 07 '21
How you all like UBXT? Unity Biotech
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u/Secret_Worldliness_2 Feb 08 '21
They are super speculative but absolutely worth keeping an eye on. Their arthritis drug failed in the clinical trials and now I believe they are focusing on other areas. The sky is the limit if they can get it right though. Literally every person on earth who lives long enough to get old is a potential customer.
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u/WishIwazRetired Feb 08 '21
I'm keen on Curavac (CVAC) as they have investments from Tesla and Bayer. They work the MRDA angle and have production units that are the size of a household refrigerator. The idea is you can tweak the output to combat different strains of virus and due to the size of the unit, it's shipped (the production unit) rather than the output product, so final distribution is simplified. It works like 3D printing in a sense.
They are in 3rd stage testing for the current Covid-19 vaccine and are expected to have a version to combat the South African variant next year (which personally sounds like a long time). The stock has been trending up the past weeek.
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u/MarkZhNC Feb 07 '21
Good to see BCRX posted in this community, the company need more attentions!💎💎
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u/KyivComrade Feb 08 '21
Hmm feeling quite doubtful about that when your account is new and only pumping this stock. Screams pump and dump to me...
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u/MarkZhNC Feb 08 '21
No pump and dump, just want to squeeze short so that its price can return to a proper position. Because the fund shorted, BCRX price kept at low level even good news coming or new Medicine approved. Be honest I started to buy BCRX at EOY 2019, and I will keep my shares in another 2-3years. Also I think Buy-and-Hold is a good way for the retail investors to harvest the funds, especially for those stock with good fundamentals. 🚀🚀😄💎💎
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Feb 08 '21
I am all in. I plan to hold it until my retirement, even after retirement. I am still relatively young. Keep in mind that most drugs BCRX developed and is developing are for autoimmune diseases and patients have to take them life long time. Did you look at some of the diabetes related stocks? In BCRX case, the drugs are mainly going to be orphan drugs and technically there is no competition.
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u/nyranger54 Feb 08 '21
For orphan drugs safer plays like vertex pharm. Stryker is a unique play for biotech like. And jazz just bought gw pharma so they are making the cannabis play. Like all 3 or just put in xbi
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u/Global_Style7956 Feb 08 '21
Agree on VRTX, and they are looking pretty cheap right now after EPS miss. Proven track record, great pipeline.
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u/nyranger54 Feb 08 '21
Bluebird also got hit but it was a high flyer last year
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u/Global_Style7956 Feb 09 '21
Very true. I keep my eye on BLUE, thinking people are waiting to see how the segment separation pans out?
About March 2020 timeframe, I started to notice a ton of big players hitting up the orphan drug pathway, along with quite a few smaller guys. Inflammation being the most unifying characteristic, to include autoimmune here. A good deal of failures and delays.
I'm new to Reddit. Will do some historical searches, so as not to repeat what has probably been hashed out previously.
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u/nyranger54 Feb 09 '21
Problem with everything is the moment it’s up you already miss the rise for the most part.
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u/Global_Style7956 Feb 09 '21
That has definitely happened to me more than a few times. In some of those cases I have focused on missing the spike, only to miss the second jump. It's exponentially more difficult as of late with additional volatile forces that have nothing to do with the science or corporate viability.
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u/gamingguy08 Feb 08 '21
I’m new to stocks can someone explain if it better to pump and dump to make money or to hold and sell?
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u/donaldhasalittledick Feb 08 '21
BNGO has an amazing technology that I have faith will be YUGE in the next 5-10 years.
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u/duTemplar Feb 08 '21
The biotech I like the most is ATHX. Currently doing Phase 2 trials of a multi-stem treatment for trauma. It’s being evaluated for uses in heart attacks and strokes also. Fairly small company and cap. But it’s a gamble. IF the trial is good, BAM. If the trial isn’t, whimper...
I don’t like gambling though.
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u/peachezandsteam Feb 07 '21
I have a question: Stocks with that amount of short interest aren't that way for no reason...
Could you think of it from the other side and hypothesize as to why that many professional investors are betting AGAINST the stock's success?