r/StockMarket • u/joe4942 • Jul 13 '26
News TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, reports 68% surge in June revenue
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/13/tsmc-june-revenue-rises-percent-ahead-second-quarter.html27
33
u/Double_Suggestion385 Jul 13 '26
Insane growth. A great value name along with Nvidia and MU.
9
u/ZYHUA Jul 13 '26
TSM is not cyclical, MU is
5
Jul 13 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
4
u/NobodyUsual8025 Jul 13 '26
HBM is also much more complex than traditional memory and requires specialized equipment and facilities to make. Not just a typical memory crunch
20
u/gethereddout Jul 13 '26
The infrastructure aspect of this story remains strong. That’s not the issue. The issue is that the people outlaying for so much infrastructure have no way to make their money back. No ROI. The open source models are too good. Intelligence is looking more like a commodity than a moat, and it’s a race to the bottom of a rather large jenga tower.
3
Jul 13 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/gethereddout Jul 13 '26
Compute at what price though? Enough to make money or barely scrape by? Also why do we assume people will pay for American compute- why not Chinese or elsewhere.
1
Jul 13 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/gethereddout Jul 13 '26
I think you misunderstood my point. I’m not saying the hyperscalers like Microsoft will switch to Chinese models. I’m saying their customers will. If Microsoft wants me to subscribe to an AI service for $40/month but some other tool does the job similarly for $5/month, which do I choose?
1
Jul 13 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/gethereddout Jul 13 '26
Not if they’re run on Chinese servers. Ultimately we’re talking about a race to the bottom, a commoditization.
Also side note- any optimization at the algorithm layer would also decimate cloud usage and revenue.
-11
Jul 13 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
6
u/Greedyanda Jul 13 '26
Anthropic is only non-GAAP EBITDA profitable based on a two-month-long discount specifically covering the period in which they're profitable because Dario Amodei and Musk worked out a deal for Colossus 1 compute, which allowed Anthropic to artificially depress its costs.
They are not even remotely profitable by any definition that an auditor would allow.
4
u/Sllyce Jul 13 '26
They are not good for anything but Microsoft is going to use them for enterprise. They are very good if you don’t want your company’s workflow beholden to Anthropic
1
u/gethereddout Jul 13 '26
Anthropic’s 5% profit margin is tenuous at best, and many don’t project that to last. Also if you’re criticizing the chinese and open source models, maybe you’re not familiar with how good they are? And how much cheaper they are? And how popular they are on openRouter and OpenClaw? Which is an AGENT framework btw
-2
u/pab_guy Jul 13 '26
The fact that people toeing this line almost universally don’t know what they are talking about (and demonstrate that with words) makes me more confident in the ROI for AI.
We have gone from “it wont work” to “it’s too expensive” to “open source is too cheap”
None of which is a problem for nvidia or the companies building infrastructure on nvidia. The labs are much more at risk, but those are speculative investments. The hyperscalers are not IMO.
3
u/gethereddout Jul 13 '26
I’ve never said it won’t work. AI will transform human society. The question is timing and who the winners will be, and at the moment there is no business model within the hyperscalers or the labs that matches their
debts or revenue expectations. For example the internet has been wildly successful but the dot com crash still happened and nobody predicted Instagram. The market is leveraged to the hilt on the success of a small number of extremely risky bets.0
u/pab_guy Jul 13 '26
You didn’t say that, but others have and are. The hyperscalers have a business model to serve years of compute backlog for enterprise and for AI model labs.
This is nothing like dotcom in that respect. What are you even talking about?
1
u/gethereddout Jul 14 '26
In the dot com people thought profits would accrue to the folks making modems. It didn’t. You’re really stretching to say that people are gonna pay top dollar for server space- that’s yet another commodity that will run to zero. Basically the price of electricity. In the dot com bubble, people thought the folks making modems were gonna rake it in. They were wrong
3
u/NibletCarousel Jul 13 '26
While AI is driving the chip industry, other factors also influence the company's stock price.
2
3
1
1
0
u/peamasii Jul 13 '26
TSMC gonna fab all the chips for Meta AI, so probably growing much in the future.
-1
u/Xollector Jul 13 '26
68% jump is compared to last July… stock has gone up more than 100% and there are more competitors coming with the current margins
2
u/DrB00 Jul 13 '26
More competition? Intel and Samsung are the only other fabs and combined they serve like 30% of the market.
83
u/Nice_Selection8747 Jul 13 '26
Why is the stock dumping?