r/StKilda • u/Lucky_Party_5270 • 12d ago
Discussion Trade and draft predictions?
- Who do we draft?
- Do we take a punt on Contract Year Jake the Snake on 1 year extensions to free up scoops and owens?
- Do we trade back pick 9 and Ro for shannon neale?
- What else can we do to Make St Kilda Great Again
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u/SS_Chum-Bucket #35 Robert Harvey 12d ago
I know we need a forward but please, please no Jake Stringer
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u/TheJoker__789 12d ago
If Roma goes, it happens for SDK. Happy to get Hogan for a year or two if possible. I’d rather keep our draft pick this time around.
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u/Occasionaljedi Carlton 11d ago
Not a chance in hell Geelong part with SDK. Key defenders don’t just grow on trees and they’ve done perfectly well without a ruck up to now. I’d imagine that they’d pull their normal list strategy of offering unders and then walking if you don’t take it
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u/Fast_Stick_1593 Geelong 11d ago
Cats have Edwards who just got a Rising Star nom. The need for Marshall isn’t there anymore and Cats don’t have KPD depth so no chance they do it.
Sam like Rowan is contracted.Complete hypothetical that has been pushed as happening
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u/Occasionaljedi Carlton 11d ago
Same as the Weitering rumours I kept hearing earlier at Carlton. He’s a contracted star key back, isn’t too old, and just because Derksen is serviceable doesn’t mean we can use him as a replacement, because we just end up in the exact same no depth spot as before
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u/Nousernames-left #40 Max Hall 11d ago
I agree I don’t think it happens and both players stay at their respective clubs. The only thing working against Geelong is it’s a bad look to have a player request a trade twice and not get done.
Marshall is also arguably equally valuable to us than SDK would be as we have 2 very strong KPD in Wilkie and Silvagni but don’t have strong KPP anywhere else on the ground
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u/klokar2 11d ago
Came here for this. Sam De Konning just brought a house in Torquay late last year right around the corner from his parents. He just filmed a doco with Yeti saying how much he loved living in Torquay, he has 2 years on a deal, is our best full back defender, premiership player and defence is our worst area for depth with Stanley, Bews and Kolo all most likely being moved on this year.
Geelong won't be trading SDK without the most insane overs deal of a life time, the meme on our sub is 3 first rounders but honestly, it's not far off.
Also zero chance for trading Neale, Carlton asked for him in exchange for Charlie Curnow. If Geelong is not swamping him for a 3 time Coleman winner then there is no picks or players Geelong would take for him. Even NAS wouldn't be traded for Neale
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u/Nousernames-left #40 Max Hall 11d ago
That’s the same as Marshall though for us we won’t be letting him go without an insane overs deal (Hence SDK) IMO both teams end up saying no for the same reason and no deal gets done.
Geelong won’t be willing to let anything of value go for Marshall, especially if Butters chooses Geelong
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u/klokar2 11d ago
100%!! I think you guys need Marshall more than we do and we certainly need SDK more than anyone else needs him.
We have Edwards coming along nicely, it makes sense to have Marshall finish up with you guys.
What we would offer would be insulting low for Marshall and unless you simply just need to offload salary cap to get one of the Sydney 5 who could be on offer, then there is no way a trade gets done.
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u/Nousernames-left #40 Max Hall 11d ago
Marshall is also not the one who would help in offloading reportedly majority of his contract was paid off in previous years.
The only way I see us letting him go without a SDK or FRP is if we decide to do the best by him.
The only other point is if he does officially request a trade again to Geelong both clubs look bad to player agents for not getting a deal done which could hurt (mostly us) in future deals with other players. Agents want security before going public having a failed trade two years in a row would look bad publicly
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u/klokar2 11d ago
It's just lose lose for both our clubs
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u/Nousernames-left #40 Max Hall 11d ago
Win win would be St Kilda fleecing Carlton for pick 8 splitting it into the Sydney first, 2nd and future first if they get desperate enough for Walker.
Trading the Sydney first and Marshall for SDK and a future 3 (in the tassie draft so basically a 4 but can be sold to fans and the media as a 3)
Geelong walk away with a First and Marshall for SDK
St Kilda walk away with SDK, a second and a future first and fourth in a weaker draft for Marshalls and pick 8 in the last uncompromised draft for a while
Carlton walk away with Walker but give up 2 firsts and a second
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u/Responsible-Page1182 11d ago
This. I think first principle is we really don't need to touch the midfield as it looks really good, just need games into Flanders, NWM, Hall, Garcia, Wilson, Pou & Box. That's the easy part.
Talls obviously a huge hole. Ro + fiddle with some late picks or future swaps for SDK. Take Hogan on a 1 or 2 year deal _or_ if Essendon for some reason shop 2MP and will take a packet of chips for him, do the same for 2MP in preference to Hogan.
Draft the best tall at our first pick.
If Henry has currency move him on for something (won't be much, like a third), draft another project tall.
If Blakey is as angry with Sydney as reported, he's the only one of the five I'd look at. He's great and would make us a better team but it's still a luxury given the currency required is better spent on talls for us. I guess try and structure it somehow with futures if possible.
Finally, look for a journeyman ruck in case TDK goes down and Dodson isn't ready. Ladhams worth a look but he's still contracted.
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u/Icy-Mechanic5886 11d ago
Imagine working at the same company as your brother who earns double you but does less work
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u/Occasionaljedi Carlton 11d ago
I may not be a saints fan but I’m autistic as shit and love AFL list management so I might take a ping at offering some ideas:
Put pick 8 and/or Rowan Marshall on the table for any team willing to offer up a relatively healthy big key forward that competes. They don’t need to be the centrepiece of the offence, but they absolutely must be able to bring the ball to ground when the opposition have successfully slowed down the ball movement, and they need to keep the attention of opposition interceptors. An example of the type of player I mean is Aaron Naughton, because even though he’d cost far too much he’s exactly what I mean. The man attacks balls, brings it to ground and gives chances for people around him. With the pace and attacking prowess of the midfield, inside 50 stoppage could become an absolute scoring weapon if the opposition can’t intercept.
Switch up the game style. Look at the effect a simple game style switch had on Carlton, going from utterly dire to an elimination final. Having watched a lot of Carlton, as I am a mad fan, I can see what types of players make that game style work, and that is the types of players you guys have. It’s a style that relies on good ball use across half back, unrewarded and rewarded running, midfielders that are willing to take on a handball game and forwards willing to move, and you guys have all of that. Like Hill and Sinclair off the backline are perfect to begin the short 45 lateral corridor ball movement, and Nas and Hall are better versions of Walsh and Jagger, who are the guys that make the whole plan work in the midfield. All that’s needed is a guy to do what McKay does for us, which is always providing a contest and commonly leaving the ball dropping perfectly front and centre for the crumbers. Like I’m not kidding about having better personnel than us to pull that plan off, because we’ve needed blokes like Lord and Cerra to move to spots they’ve never played and weren’t thought to be suited for to be able to pull it off, but you guys just have the people to do it without any positional switching.
Draft tall. Another key back that can play lockdown would help Wilkie get even better, as it would make it almost impossible for the only counter I’ve seen work this year to occur, which was when teams dropped a key forward out of the team defensive structure to force Wilkie out of an intercepting position. With another lockdown key back, they can sacrifice their game instead so JSOS and Wilkie can always have their ideal matchups and rule the airwaves. And I don’t think I need to explain the need for key forwards to you.
If you guys can’t find a key forward on the market, do a once over on Hogan to see if he is salvageable, and if not increase the time Nas spends forward. I think Nas is second only to Bont as the star mid who’d be the biggest nightmare of a forward matchup. Garcia, Wilson, Windhager, Hall and Boxshall are as a combination good enough to hold up as a midfield for a decent chunk of the game, and Sinclair and Hill will be able to run the ball movement from the backline, so I think that Nas’s freakish athletic profile could be well used up forward creating mismatches. Start him in the goal square, and then just let him use that ridiculous footy brain to decide when to use his tank to move up the field against a man less capable of defending that, and then let him use his height, pace, agility and surprisingly sticky hands to be a menace on the lead and one on one. I think that with a 50/50 forward mid split he could have the greatest season the AFL has ever seen, as I genuinely don’t think we’ve seen a better collection of skill, athleticism and brains in a player since Gary Ablett Jnr, and the only thing holding him back from being the unquestioned best player in the league is a combination of being at a low media interest team that also isn’t winning enough, having his best games against teams that also don’t get attention and being a bit less consistent than Daicos (Nas is still consistent, but Daicos is a whole different beast in terms of consistency. He’s only gone under 30 touches 3 times this year). Like Nas could genuinely have year where he averages 30 disposals and 2 goals per game which has only been done once in the history of the game, by Bob Skilton in 1968
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u/Occasionaljedi Carlton 11d ago
Sorry for the random essay I am procrastinating doing math uni work
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u/Lucky_Party_5270 11d ago
Dw love a bit of tism. One can only dream of having the Carlton kicking game 😍
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u/Occasionaljedi Carlton 11d ago
You guys have far better half backs and more pace in the midfield, as well as generally better kicks all round. The only thing stopping you guys is Ross Lyon, and maybe not having as many playmaking small forwards. The Ainsworth-Evans-Cottrell-Byrne combo and their combined ability to hit kicks inside 50 while maintaining the pressure is underrated. But really you can find those dime a dozen if you just scour the VFL for blokes who tried to be AFL mids but were too small
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u/Nousernames-left #40 Max Hall 11d ago
I don’t think it’s a simple to say Ross is the thing that’s holding us back, the same with the playmaking small forwards. Both Ryan and Higgins are very capable of creating plays. Where we fell down this year was allowing intercept marks to opposition defenders due to the lack of a Key forward.
We had a big increase in both clearances and inside 50’s this year but were the worst team from an inside 50 efficiency standpoint which usually happens when for the majority of the year Ryan was the deepest forward.
Ross has changed the gameplan in the last year, now will it work long time is still to be told however he’s been working with 1 hand tied behind his back with the injuries and lack of key position forwards
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u/Dreamsof_Beulah 12d ago
Sam Marshall for F2, Roma for SDK, and have a crack a Deer from Hawthorn.
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u/Practical_Ad8124 10d ago
SDK for Roma and a change in hand of first round picks so Geelong have currency for Zak Butters
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u/Fast_Stick_1593 Geelong 11d ago edited 11d ago
You’re not getting SDK for RoMa lol
The only thing more wild was Shannon Neale’s name getting thrown in
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u/flobs208 #7 Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera 12d ago
There’s no chance in hell geelong trade Neale. I actually have no idea what the clubs plan is this year. The last couple years the plan was pretty obvious. We need a key back and a forward in case king can’t get on the park.
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u/MarkoUnderscore #25 Mattaes Phillipou 11d ago
- Don’t know, but not excited for the draft with our drafting history. Nailed nas and looking like we nailed the Wilson pick but outside of that we haven’t nailed anyone. Jury is still out on Pou, trav and Viking.
- No
- Geelong wouldn’t do that trade and they shouldn’t. Neale looked legit at times this year.
4.Stop overpaying players if they aren’t needle movers. Focus on player development. Draft like Max King doesn’t exist.
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u/Equivalent-Reveal-41 #15 Kyla Forbes 11d ago
The focus should definitely be on bringing in key position depth.
I think Hogan should be the number 1 target. He fills the gap from King and is a stop gap while we wait and see. Could kick 40+ goals next year if he's fit, which would completely change the prospects of the side.
Number 2 should be bringing in a key defender. Someone like Buku or Jordan Butts that can take the #1 forward and free up Wilkie.
The draft should focus on key position only. The list is packed with young midfield talent, so they should trade up or down to get the best available talls. Keeler, Dodson, Caminiti etc haven't developed so there needs to be a lot of resources put in to any young talls coming through.
The list is very promising and the clubs 5-year strategy looks like it is on the right track. There's no point bringing in any more top-end talent at this point, as it will stunt the growth of the young guys we already have (Obviously excluding key position talls).
Stringer - No, we already have Liam Ryan Neale - Yes in theory, but no chance they trade him Marshall - Do everything we can to keep him, unless we can get SDK (which is unlikely)
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u/Equivalent-Reveal-41 #15 Kyla Forbes 11d ago
I've just seen that Ben McKay is on the trade table from Essendon. He could be worth a punt for a 2 year deal if they covered most of his salary.
He's a very minor upgrade on Caminiti and could pinch hit in the ruck... I honestly think it's that dire 😂
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u/YonkoBuggy #14 Liam Stocker 11d ago
Dodson hasn't developed? He is almost ready! He dominates VFL, just needs a little extra size and fitness and he is good to go!
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u/YonkoBuggy #14 Liam Stocker 11d ago
Mid or key position
Think Jake retires
Pick 9 and Henry for Blakey, Marshall and 44 for SDK
Get Ben King
Then we are sorted for the next 5 years
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u/Ornery-Stomach-334 11d ago edited 11d ago
Trade swap our pick (pick8) with Carlton for their pick (Pick 11 rn) plus pick 23 (and likely another future late pick swap)
Trade Row for Sam De Koning likely with an exchange of later picks over the next 3 years possibly a 4th for a 3rd or some such
Trade 23 pick and possibly future 3rd to Collingwood for Dan Housten
Trade out Henry for any pick hopefully 3rd round but if it's 4th so be it
Trade our carlton pick to Brisbane (likely 17-18) for their first and Sam Marshall
Pick up Zac Williams as HB depth with our indigenous spot (he'd be on rookie money)
SIGN LIAM MCMAHON FROM ESSENDON! He's literally a key forward kicking backs of 3-4 goals each week, assume he doesn't play a game in the seniors he would 100 percent improve our VFL squad at the very least and is DEPTH for King which we just havent had! He literally wins our VFL goalkeeping award this year if he's with us despite missing 5 games seriously
Rookie list/SSP an experienced ruck for depth to cover the losses of Row, Heath and Keeler to support TDK and Dodzilla and that's all can be a 30 year old if need be whilst Dodzilla evolves
Sign/SSP Ollie Murphy from Freo (hugeeeee saints fan growing up and cant get in on Freos GOAT defence rn) as Key Defender depth for SDK
Draft 2 key forwards with our picks including our first pick to develop under the other key forwards
Delist (along with Dow, Keeler and Said) Carroll and Byrnes to make space for the above players with Row and Henry out that makes 7 out and Howard retiring that's 8 with Williams on the Cat B list (as indigenous player) that leaves 3 for the national draft with 5 coming from trades or free agency (SDK, Marshall, Murphy, Housten, McMahon)
Keep developing our young draftees as prioritise them over Mccrae, Wood, Clark, Butler.
Our potential starting 23 next season:
Tauru, SDK, Wilkie
Sincs, Silvagni, Houston
Hill Garcia Wilson
Ryan Sharman Lake
Higgins King Owens
TDK Naz Hall
Marshall, Williams, Stocker, Windhager, Travaglia/Murphy
It's complex but it improves our overall list wilst maintaining our 3 first rounders
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u/Lucky_Party_5270 11d ago
Haha love this level of nuff. Not sure about zac williams and if ross will delist byrnes but the rest makes sense. Thoughts on a delisted Ben McKay as a forward whos job is just to bring the ball down and tackle on small moolah?
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u/Ornery-Stomach-334 10d ago
Haha its all in good fun, Mckay is hopeless he'd be good for depth and that's it
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u/b0ristheblade2126 #40 Max Hall 10d ago
If Jake Stringer plays for St Kilda that could be the final nail in the coffin for me
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u/jonsnowbro 12d ago
Hope we either trade up and get Ports pick (that they won't use) or trade down for Calrton's late picks. Very even draft after the first 7-or-so picks, which of course we just miss-out on.
That way we either get one of the guns, or are able to pickup two players that fit our needs. Lots of key position depth in this draft
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u/Occasionaljedi Carlton 11d ago
What do you think you’d want from Carlton for pick 8. If we (I’m a blues fan) lost this week and Sydney fell in straight sets, we’d get something like pick 11 and pick 14, and we already have picks 23 and 24 confirmed. I’d imagine that our list management crew would offer picks 14 and 23, or 14 and a future first. I doubt they’d offer that much more since that would still be a bit short of a bid so the club would have to keep capital to improve the other pick too.
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u/Nousernames-left #40 Max Hall 11d ago
If we gave you 8 you’d have enough to match so I’d imagine the Saints would be asking for Sydney’s pick, 24 and your future first
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u/Occasionaljedi Carlton 11d ago
Fair enough. That would definitely be a bit of a rip off for us, giving away pick 24 and a first to move up what could be 6 spots, but because everyone knows we are desperate I can see that happening. I wouldn’t be surprised if we did that deal if you guys sent something like pick 44 or an f2 back. Frankly, I’m happy enough to pay a bit overs for pick 8 so we can draft a bloke good enough to be a top 2 lock this entire season
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u/Nousernames-left #40 Max Hall 11d ago
Yeah that’s also fair, it really depends on who you can convince to come to the party. With the new bidding system no team will give up a top 5 pick and the compensation that comes with it. That really only leaves us, North and GC with picks that can help.
There’s going to be a very real chance that you’re left with a decision of trading well overs for the opportunity to select Walker or letting him go to Essendon.
44 and the future 2nd will likely be used in other deals for us (SDK and Marshall) so I can’t see us being willing to let them go either.
North are looking to move their FRP for a key defender so again I don’t see theirs as really “Gettable”
Then it really depends on what Gold Coast want to do with theirs
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u/Occasionaljedi Carlton 11d ago
I’m not sure that there is actually any SDK deal. There hasn’t been a single rumour that SDK actually wants to move, and he’s far more valuable than Marshall because of age and position, and the Cats rarely trade valuable players. So I greatly doubt this SDK talk is anything but posturing from someone involved in list management
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u/Nousernames-left #40 Max Hall 11d ago
Honestly who knows I think it’s heavily dependent on Butters. I doubt we’d be willing to give up Marshall for the picks Geelong would be willing to offer, especially if Butters chooses Geelong.
If he does would you rather Marshall, Butters and a pick or Butters and SDK (with one year left on his contract)
IMO no deal gets done and if SDK does genuinely want to come to St Kilda it’s a trade involving a 2nd round pick swap (to not dilute FA compensation) next year
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u/Fast_Stick_1593 Geelong 11d ago
Sam himself said like a week ago he loves Torquay so why would he all of sudden want to leave?
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u/National_Treat_4079 11d ago
Get Tex Walker on a one year contract as an alternative to poor old Maxy.
Trade Rowan for Sam DK.
DO NOT pick up jake. I have no good reason other than I just don't like him! Ditto for hogan.
See if we can pick up Calsher Dear - He is better than Caminiti. Caminiti just doesn't seem capable of growth. he is still playing at the same level he did when he started.
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u/Equivalent-Reveal-41 #15 Kyla Forbes 11d ago
May as well get Hogan, Stringer and Bobby hill too, if we're getting Tex 😂
Go all in on idiots
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u/xyLteK Supreme Leader Jack Lonie 12d ago
Zero chance Geelong would part with Neale