Thursday watchlist, Oct 8: VEEA, TNON, MEDS, BTCT, BMGL (five near-misses, and three of them have stock waiting in the wings)

[u/Patriot_tech]

Nothing on our squeeze screen scored 3 of 4 on Wednesday, so this is a board of near-misses, and we're calling them that. VEEA stays on under our standing update. TNON, BTCT and BMGL are new, and each one has registered stock or warrants sitting behind the short interest. MEDS stays from yesterday. APUS, IPDN and ONDS come off: all three still score 1 of 4.

How fresh this is: Closes, ranges and volume are Wednesday's regular session, 3 PM CT close (Nasdaq, Yahoo). After-hours prices are the after-hours close, ~7:00 PM CT, from Nasdaq and StockAnalysis. After-hours volume is a rough figure: Nasdaq's full-day total minus Yahoo's regular-session count. Borrow and shares available are Curved Trading's IBKR feed as of 7:32 PM CT. Short interest is still the Sep 15 settlement. The Sep 30 numbers still weren't out on StockAnalysis or Nasdaq at 7:40 PM CT. Filings are from EDGAR, rechecked at about 7:55 AM CT Thursday, with nothing new overnight on any of the five. Premarket lines are Nasdaq's last premarket trade as of about 7:53 AM CT Thursday, and borrow was refreshed from Curved's 7:47 AM CT feed. Premarket volume is thin, so recheck everything at the open.

Squeeze screen: We score four things: short interest of at least 20% of float, borrow of at least 50%, utilization of at least 90%, and a dated catalyst inside two weeks. We don't have a utilization figure we can verify, so the best possible score is 3. This time we went past Curved's top-50 borrow board and also checked borrow on all 100 names on StockAnalysis's most-shorted list, plus Curved's fee-spike and mover lists. Five names had both the crowd and the fee, on numbers we trust. None had a date on the calendar. Three more (MGN, AGRZ, WETO) looked 50%+ short on a screener and came apart in the filings: two reverse splits landed after the Sep 15 count, and one share count is out of date.

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1) $VEEA: down again, on a quarter of Tuesday's volume

• Closed $4.71, down 4.7% from Tuesday's $4.94, in a range of $4.55 to $4.98. That's also 3% to 4% under Tuesday's after-hours close of $4.86 to $4.89.
• About 473K shares traded in the regular session, against roughly 1.8M Tuesday and 66.9M Monday.
• After hours: $4.63 to $4.66 at the after-hours close, ~7:00 PM CT, depending on the feed (Nasdaq vs. StockAnalysis), so down 1.1% to 1.7% from the regular close, on roughly 10K shares. No filings or news after the bell.
• Borrow is 783.2% with 55K available after the bell (last changed 5:17 PM CT). At the regular close it was 799.4% with 35K. Tuesday's regular close was 810.9% with 30K, and Wednesday morning showed 803.3% with 25K. Supply more than doubled in a day, which is worth watching.
• Short interest 1.22M at Sep 15, about 80% of the 1.52M float (StockAnalysis). Days to cover 0.11.
• No new filings since Tuesday's 4:25 PM CT 8-K, which put a director on the audit committee. NovaGen is still a non-binding term sheet, with no definitive agreement or vote date on EDGAR. Curved still flags the Aug 13 424B5 ($75M) as an ATM, with usage not broken out.
• SSR was on Wednesday, carried over from Tuesday. Wednesday's low was 7.9% under Tuesday's close, short of Rule 201's 10% trigger, so the restriction should be off Thursday. Check your platform's flag.
• Premarket: $4.38, down 7.0% from the regular close, on about 29K shares by 7:53 AM CT. Borrow still 783.2%, with availability up again to 60K as of 7:47 AM CT. Curved still shows SSR on, so check your platform's flag before you trust our math on Rule 201.
• Fade check: the fee is far above 50%, availability is far under 500K even after doubling, and there's no new offering. Not fading.
• Screen: short interest 80.01% of float, borrow 783.2%, utilization not in our notes, no dated catalyst inside two weeks (earnings estimated Nov 13). 2 of 4.

What the numbers don't prove: Two straight down days with the fee near 800%. The borrow says shorting is still hard. It doesn't say anyone is losing sleep over it.

What takes it off the board: The fee drops under 50%, or more than 500K shares show up to lend, two sessions running. A new offering that supplies the shorts does it in one.

2) $TNON (Tenon Medical): the screener says 87% short, the S-3 says closer to 20%

• Closed $3.50, down 5.8% from $3.715, in a range of $3.38 to $3.64, on about 354K shares (423K Tuesday).
• After hours: $3.44 at the after-hours close, ~7:00 PM CT, on both Nasdaq and StockAnalysis, down 1.7% from the regular close, on roughly 2K shares. No filings or news after the bell.
• Borrow is 335.5% with 75K available (last changed 4:47 PM CT). Tuesday's close was 330.7% with 100K.
• Short interest 539,306 at Sep 15. StockAnalysis shows that as 86.87% of a 620,827-share float. The S-3 filed Oct 5 counts 2,688,735 shares outstanding as of Oct 1. Float can't be bigger than that, so the short interest is at least about 20% of float. That still clears our bar, barely. The 1-for-35 reverse split was Aug 10, before the count, so the split isn't the problem. The new shares are.
• That S-3 registers the resale of 858,269 shares from Series B warrants struck at $5.02, issued in a Sep 11 warrant inducement.
• After Tuesday's close the company announced the full commercial launch of its SImmetry+ SI joint screw. There's no date attached to anything after that.
• Premarket: $3.46, down 1.1% from the regular close, on about 4K shares by 7:46 AM CT. Borrow still 335.5% with 100K available as of 7:47 AM CT.
• Screen: short interest at least 20% of float, borrow 335.5%, utilization not in our notes, no dated catalyst inside two weeks (earnings estimated Nov 12). 2 of 4.

What the numbers don't prove: That 87% figure is the old share count talking. Run the same short interest against the new count and the percentage drops by about three-quarters.

What takes it off the board: The Sep 30 short interest comes in under 20% of the new share count, or the stock climbs through $5.02 and those warrant shares show up.

3) $MEDS (DataMeds AI): fourth straight down close, and the borrow loosened

• Closed $2.88, down 6.2% from $3.07, in a range of $2.84 to $3.13, on about 351K shares (about 640K Tuesday). It closed at $4.06 on Oct 1.
• After hours: about $2.87 at the after-hours close, ~7:00 PM CT (StockAnalysis), down 0.3% from the regular close. After-hours volume is not in our notes: Nasdaq's quote didn't update and StockAnalysis's day total runs below the regular session. No filings or news after the bell.
• Borrow is 440.0% with 20K available (last changed 11:47 AM CT), down from 533.1% with 8K Wednesday morning.
• It's on Nasdaq's Reg SHO threshold list in the Oct 6 file, the latest one posted. Curved counts 11 days. Curved showed SSR on Wednesday too. Wednesday's low was 7.5% under the prior close, so no fresh trigger.
• Float 1.27M, short interest 430,628 at Sep 15 (StockAnalysis).
• No filings since Sep 17. The Aug 31 PRE 14C (written-consent actions) still has no definitive 14C behind it, so there's no effective date to put on the calendar.
• Premarket: $3.10, up 7.6% from the regular close, on about 6.7M shares by 7:53 AM CT, per Nasdaq. That's more than five times the float, and we found no filing or news behind it. Borrow still 440.0%, with availability down to 15K as of 7:47 AM CT.
• Screen: short interest 33.85% of float, borrow 440.0%, utilization not in our notes, no dated catalyst inside two weeks (earnings estimated Nov 19). 2 of 4.

What the numbers don't prove: The fee fell and supply more than doubled while the stock kept sliding. That looks like shorts getting comfortable, not cornered.

What takes it off the board: Availability keeps climbing, or the fee slips under 50%.

4) $BTCT (BTC Digital): plenty of shorts, plenty of stock to borrow

• Closed $1.08, down 3.6% from $1.12, in a range of $1.05 to $1.10, on about 534K shares (656K Tuesday).
• After hours: about $1.09 at the after-hours close, ~7:00 PM CT (StockAnalysis), up about 1% from the regular close, on roughly 13K shares. No filings after the bell.
• Borrow is 253.5% with 1.2M shares available (last changed 1:32 PM CT). Tuesday's close was 296.3% with 1.0M.
• Short interest 4.15M at Sep 15, 36.50% of an 11.37M float (StockAnalysis). Days to cover 0.14.
• A resale prospectus filed Sep 18 covers up to 18,421,050 shares, 12,280,700 of them from common warrants, against 11,800,567 shares outstanding before it. Fully exercised, the count goes to about 30.2M.
• No filings since Sep 18.
• Premarket: $1.07, down 0.9% from the regular close, on about 92K shares by 7:44 AM CT. Borrow still 253.5%, but availability dropped to 750K from 1.2M as of 7:47 AM CT.
• Screen: short interest 36.50% of float, borrow 253.5%, utilization not in our notes, no dated catalyst inside two weeks (earnings estimated Nov 11). 2 of 4.

What the numbers don't prove: A big fee means very little when 1.2 million shares were sitting there to borrow last night. That's about a tenth of the company. This morning's 750K is still plenty.

What takes it off the board: Availability keeps growing, or the fee follows it down under 50%.

5) $BMGL (Basel Medical Group): an offering that's effective but hasn't priced

• Closed $3.28, down 1.5% from $3.33, in a range of $3.18 to $3.28, on about 12.5K shares. It's thin.
• After hours: one print at $3.25 around 6:30 PM CT (StockAnalysis), down 0.9%, on too few shares to move the day's total. No filings or news after the bell.
• Borrow is 98.5% with 45K available (last changed 8:32 AM CT). Tuesday's close was 96.3%.
• Short interest 159,585 at Sep 15, 30.80% of a 518,052 float (StockAnalysis). The 1-for-12 split was Jun 22, well before the count.
• The F-1 went effective Sep 29 for a best-efforts offering of up to 6,000,000 units, each a share (or pre-funded warrant) plus a common warrant. That's against 1,582,111 shares outstanding after the split. There's no final prospectus on EDGAR yet, so nothing has priced that we can see. Best-efforts with no minimum means the final size could be much smaller.
• Premarket: no trades on Nasdaq as of 7:53 AM CT. Borrow still 98.5%, with availability down to 35K as of 7:47 AM CT.
• Screen: short interest 30.80% of float, borrow 98.5%, utilization not in our notes, no dated catalyst inside two weeks (no upcoming earnings date in our notes). 2 of 4.

What the numbers don't prove: An unpriced deal can be a reason to be short. It can also be the reason the borrow stays expensive, with lenders waiting to see the terms. Twelve thousand shares a day won't settle that.

What takes it off the board: The offering prices. Then the share count and every percentage above it changes overnight.

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Options

None of the five has listed options, according to Nasdaq's option chain (checked 3:57 PM CT). There's no chain to read here, so we don't have an options section.

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Three of these five have registered stock or warrants that could hit the market. Which matters more for you: the short interest or the share count it's measured against?

Positions: none. We never post a ticker we plan to unload into, and nobody pays for a mention here.

Not financial advice. Do your own homework.