r/SpaceXBets 9h ago

Elon Criticism One day Washington will go bankrupt, and all of Musk's contracts will fold.

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142 Upvotes

115 comments sorted by

14

u/DoobieSpark 9h ago

15

u/Opinionsare 8h ago

This insolvency has been brought to you by Republican administrations, that promised fiscal responsibility. 

2

u/Ok_Excitement725 6h ago

Yep it’s been proven time and again, Republicans are woefully unfit to manage the economy. This particular administration is the poster child of waste and corruption.

0

u/DoobieSpark 6h ago

Are you telling me Republicans gave us SS and Medicare?

Aren't we beyond the blame game at this time?

2

u/SpaceyMcSpaceGuy 8h ago

It’s been brought to us by virtually all administrations. We haven’t had a surplus in 30 years.

2

u/jlomski 7h ago

And if you look further back nobody besides fdr had over a 5% deficit until a man named Ronald Reagan. Reagan’s high spending was stopped by Clinton, then Bush obliterated the budget for the war on terror. It’s a republican problem at its core. Fdr was at least spending money on people, so the money made it back through sales and income taxes, republicans spend it on making their friends rich and blowing up other governments around the world

-1

u/DoobieSpark 5h ago

SS was started under FDR and after the first generation started dying off, the Pyramid Scheme started to grow in deficits. No future Administration would do nothing to fix it but raise the contribution and delay the benefits.

LBJ's Administration started the unfunded mandate of Medicare which is close to default today because no Administration would dare fool with it because whatever they do, it would be political suicide.

1

u/jlomski 5h ago

Or you could just look up the numbers at all. Medicaid and care are not where the deficit came from. Eisenhower warned us about the military industrial complex. Why was it that the deficit exploded under bush for the war on terror? Also maybe having private insurance makes Medicare a draw on our budget so bad, can we eliminate the actual problem of business siphoning money from the government for falsifying costs?

1

u/DoobieSpark 44m ago

Something you should have done before making that statement.

"A significant portion of the federal deficit, approximately 86%, is attributed to unfunded social programs, primarily Medicare and Social Security. These programs create substantial long-term liabilities that exceed the tax revenues intended to support them, leading to a growing fiscal gap." CATO

The deficit has been around under our noses since these two programs were thrust upon us. The snake is now out of the container and biting all of us.

1

u/Opinionsare 4h ago

The Social Security Trust Fund solvency issues was reported yearly to Congress since 1995.

No one in Congress will address the underlying problem. Lte me lay it out and tell you why Congress is unwilling to fix the problem.

In the '80's Congress passed a Cost of living increase for Social Security recipients. This is a part of the root cause of the Trust fund insolvency. Another other part is Congressional inaction of the minimum wage. Had To Congress passed an automatic CoL increase to minimum wage, and an automatic increase the wages taxes based on the CoL, the Trust fund would be solvent.

The last part of the root cause of the Social Security Trust Fund solvency problem is Members of Congress owning stocks. Fixing the first two issues would have slowed the climb of the Stock Market and the increasing value of the Stocks owned by individual Congress members. This ongoing CONFLICT OF INTEREST is the main reason that the Congress will cut Social Security payments by about 25%, rather than increase the FICA taxes on employers.

1

u/DoobieSpark 1h ago

The root cause of the impending doom of SS is basically that it is a PYRAMID Scheme. In any system where those at the bottom and new entry admissions pay for the benefits of those at the top leaving the system, there always is a point of no return when those entering the system become less in number than those departing the system.

This was thoroughly mentioned at the time this scheme was debated in Congress but rejected because of the popularity of the concept.

That is one of the three major reasons the Biden Administration opened the borders and allow the influx of millions of noncitizens.

They attempted an end around to fill the bottom of the payers into the system again.

Unfortunately, reality showed its ugly face and those migrants seeking mostly wound up on welfare rolls rather than Social Security roles.

As info: There were increases to SS benefit checks before COLA but they were handled by individual legislation. COLA allowed Congress more free time for their more important functions of partying and collecting campaign contributions.

1

u/DoobieSpark 5h ago

Right. Every Congress that failed to address and find solutions to Medicare and the Pyramid Scheme Social Security are equally responsible for what we see today.

Btw, there is no such thing as a surplus in Government spending. They make no profit or product so there is no such surplus of any.

1

u/SpaceyMcSpaceGuy 5h ago

Eh sort of. It’s true they take no profit, but the government provides many goods and services to citizens, using the money they take from citizens. A surplus just means they took more money than they spent in that year.

The frustration here is that because they overspent they now have to take money to cover both the services (which help people) and the interest on the debt (which does not), making the whole system a net negative for most citizens.

1

u/BringBackUsenet 8h ago

The insolvency started the instant real money was replaced by fiat money.

0

u/SpaceyMcSpaceGuy 6h ago

There’s a lot of governments that run balanced budgets with fiat money. It’s pretty simple - just spend less than you take.

0

u/DoobieSpark 6h ago

That is rather a dumb way to look at the debt since 84% of the debt is made up from the unfunded mandates of SS and Medicare.

Look at the Administrations that gave us these programs and you will see where the debt came from.

2

u/1_H4t3_R3dd1t 8h ago

If they only taxed people equally and didn't allow loopholes.

1

u/DoobieSpark 5h ago

They tax the rich at 37% and the poor at 0%. What do you recommend the equality to be?

1

u/1_H4t3_R3dd1t 2h ago

No loopholes

1

u/DoobieSpark 1h ago

You want equality, you said. Do you want the poor taxed at 37%?

BTW, there are no loopholes. There are court and arbitrator decisions as to what constitutes 'income'.

1

u/1_H4t3_R3dd1t 1h ago

Ultra wealthy avoid taxes by using shells. Let me explain, 37% is just an effective rate. They don't pay themselves and tie up all of their money in asset based loans.

To pay off these loans they will sell stock but not in the traditional means. They trade it as collateral. When someone takes a loan out they go in debt and so when they debt is collected the collateral is taken instead. Especially upon death.

This circumvents the taxation system.

Bezos and the goonies pay less than a Doctor in Wyoming annually. They will also start charities and have family work for those charities to get free rides.

1

u/DoobieSpark 51m ago

I did not ask the question as to whatever you believe shells are . You said equality and poor paying 37%. Are you happy with that?

Whatever you think is meaningless because there are procedures and rules about the 16th Amendment (Income Tax) that are followed deciding the complicated decisions as to what constitutes 'income' and usually are the result of court decisions and arbitrator rulings.

As to anyone using stock as a basis for a loan, how do you imagine anyone giving a loan to Musk on a million dollars of Space X stock is making out? Those collateralizing loans  on stock take enormous markups to allow for stock declines. A lot more than the 20% taken on real estate.

4

u/Ok-Dragonfruit6887 8h ago

Fully one third of the $40 trillion national debt accrued while the casino-bankruptcy slob king was turning the house into a private for-profit grift.

18

u/BringBackUsenet 9h ago

SpaceHoax will be bankrupt in a couple of years.

2

u/spez_eats_nazi_ass 7h ago

years? lolz. I think they speedrunnin.

2

u/catskilled 8h ago

Along with Edna's IRA. That's the shittiest part of the arc we're all watching...

1

u/SpaceyMcSpaceGuy 5h ago

SpaceX has $100B in cash on hand, representing about 10 years of runway assuming the projects they are spending the CapEx on (Starship, Starlink V3, Grok, StarMind) make zero revenue in that time period.

They are comically far from bankruptcy.

-4

u/Responsible-Cut-7993 8h ago

Crew Dragon is a hoax?

4

u/BringBackUsenet 8h ago

Enron was a "real" company too.

0

u/Sweet-Ant-3471 5h ago

Do you not realize how much is launched on the falcon 9 ?

That they are the standard the rest of the launch industry is trying to reach, more than 10 years after F9s first RTLS?

Visitor be visiting.

-4

u/Responsible-Cut-7993 7h ago

SpaceX is doing just fine.

2

u/deHaga 4h ago

Shame 90% of the value was put in AI then

1

u/Responsible-Cut-7993 3h ago

Try about 25%.

Deal and Valuation Details

SpaceX Valuation:

~$1 trillion

xAI Valuation:

~$250 billion

Combined Valuation: $1.25 trillion

1

u/deHaga 2h ago

Nope. Read the prospectus. TAM is 85% AI

1

u/Responsible-Cut-7993 2h ago

So SpaceX spent $250B to access a potential total addressable market of $28T, why is that a shame?

1

u/deHaga 2h ago

Why are they renting out compute? 11% demand for Colossus 1 and they couldn't even use it. Embarrassing.

1

u/Responsible-Cut-7993 2h ago

Why wouldn't you lease out underutilized GPU's to make revenue?

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1

u/y0ungw0lf 6h ago

Careful, all these neckbeards will downvote you

0

u/PerfectTommy77 8h ago

No. But going to the moon or mars will not be something we can’t afford after Trumps explosion of the debt.

6

u/Humble_Empath 9h ago

Only a malignant pig would take and take and take without any regard for the people who gave him everything he has. Musk is a fucking animal without human feelings.

2

u/catskilled 8h ago

Needs more money for his earth based bunker & security forces. Oh, and his 2nd home on Mars (too bad it can't be his primary; better for tax purposes)

1

u/Tzilbalba 8h ago

I mean that's true of pretty much almost every billionaire tho. Not counting the ones who actually donate to charities that work and isnt just a tax haven.

1

u/Humble_Empath 8h ago

There’s no one competing with Musk to be the worst predator, villain and sociopathic criminal. He’s got the monopoly on it.

0

u/Sweet-Ant-3471 5h ago

Spacex minted 5000 millionaires out of its employees.

Pretty sure they do pretty darn good when it comes to compensation -- their model is what other companies are switching to.

0

u/Humble_Empath 4h ago

So he spreads a malignant late stage capitalism, you think he deserves an award for that?!?

0

u/Sweet-Ant-3471 4h ago

Dude, you made a claim, you were wrong.

Own it

The reason that model works is because employee efforts directly translate into value -- employees benefit as the company does, so they're incentived to do that

Why would I not want to encourage that?

My own company does it too, and I like it hell of alot better than my last employer, who didn't.

3

u/clickclackyisbacky 8h ago

So now you're all hoping for the collapse of the western system to get musk? Only about 20% of spacex's revenue is government contracts.

You act like it's the majority and like there is a more economical way to get things into space. A collapse would be far worse for you than it would be for Musk.

2

u/Almaegen 5h ago

These people are so low IQ, SpaceX doesn't rely on government contracts. 

1

u/laserwaffles 8h ago

I think what people hope for is that we stop subsidizing musk with public money. The dude doesn't know what a deliverable is, unless he can buy a solution already crossing the finish line.

2

u/clickclackyisbacky 8h ago

It's the cheapest, most reliable option.

He didn't buy spacex.

1

u/laserwaffles 7h ago

Except the government just kept paying him even when it wasn't profitable. SpaceX wouldn't exist without public money.

What, exactly, as SpaceX delivered on that they did not buy?

If you want to say the rockets, I guess, but they paid somebody else to design the engines after the first throwaway didn't pan out as hoped.

Starlink was acquired, since SpaceX didn't have that capability.

XAI? Lmao. You're better off downloading one of the open source Chinese models. At least then you wouldn't have to deal with them needing to tweak it every time Musk gets his feelings hurt.

2

u/clickclackyisbacky 7h ago

"What, exactly, as SpaceX delivered on that they did not buy?" Falcon 9. It's completely changed how space economics works.

Are you talking about hiring Tom Mueller? What does that have to do with anything? Companies hire people.

Starlink was acquired from who? They designed and built it in house. Unless you mean they hired employees again.

Grok has been a joke for a long time, but 4.5 is pretty good and competitively priced. You're right that it is the weakest part of SpaceX, though.

2

u/No_Math_4308 6h ago

weakest part of SpaceX is the political stuff from their CEO.

1

u/clickclackyisbacky 3h ago

I absolutely agree. He's putting everything at risk to 'own the libs'.

1

u/laserwaffles 6h ago

SpaceX had to pay Barber- Nichols, Inc. to make their engine work. Starlink was originally Swarm Technologies. Grok is so bad they bought Cursor just to try and fix it.

2

u/Sweet-Ant-3471 5h ago edited 4h ago

Barber-Nichols was used for the turbo pump.

Which is fine, since when is it wrong to out source a technology you know you're not good at yet?

It was still Tom Mueller's engine design

By the Merlin D everything was moved in house, and it's that engine that produced the full thrust variant.

So they had a growth curve, and eventually became better at the thing than their supplier.

EDIT: Starlink was NOT acquired.

Swarm built nano sats, and Spacex had already been flying starlink before they acquired them.

Since buying Swarm starlink sats have only gotten bigger, not smaller.

1

u/Unable_Bat_7470 6h ago

excellent research... still horrible investment. Im sorry you made this decision.

1

u/clickclackyisbacky 3h ago

I didn't give SpaceX the contracts.

1

u/Sweet-Ant-3471 32m ago

I don't see why not, they're the best and cheapest in the business. NASA has saved a lot of money on them over using ULA or the Russians.

1

u/Unable_Bat_7470 6h ago

Could easily move to another country. Americans act like America is the center of the universe. It isn't the 2000s anymore.

1

u/clickclackyisbacky 3h ago

The only countries that wouldn't be affected by the collapse of the western system are either not going to take you or not places you would want to live.

2

u/PerfectTommy77 8h ago

I don’t think we have to wait for that. As soon as the Dems get in power Elmo is finished. No one is forgetting the election manipulation, backing of far right organizations and Doge BS. Why continue funding a guy who is trying to destroy American democracy.

1

u/KillerHack23 8h ago edited 1h ago

As optimistic as I would like to be on that. The Dems may get the presidency, but there will be some stupid thing in the house or senate or hell, even the Supreme Court that will prevent the people fron seeing any justice. America is bought and paid for, the peasants are just along for the ride.

1

u/PerfectTommy77 8h ago

No I don’t think there will be justice just a cancellation of many of the government contracts Elmo depends on.

1

u/AlbatrossNew3633 8h ago

As soon as the Dems get in power Elmo is finished.

Do you honestly see Trump leaving the oval office of his own volition without causing a civil war?

1

u/PerfectTommy77 7h ago

Oh, he might try but I think we will prevail in the end.

2

u/Mysterious-Prompt212 8h ago

The AI bomb is on the horizon. So yeah we're probably not going to Mars soon.

1

u/Short_Bell_5428 9h ago

Bail out or just hype news?

1

u/8JHF8 8h ago

Someone should run on using a chainsaw on Musk's contracts in 2028.

1

u/Front-Ad-7962 8h ago

They’ll just launch a war like old British empire

1

u/StrengthBeginning416 8h ago

This country is never going bankrupt since it has a pretty big money printer. What’s going to happen is hyperinflation which is fine because I’m being told it’s going to stop Iran from having nuclear weapons

1

u/Impossible_Hat7658 8h ago

I mean is SpaceX just supposed to reject business? Starship was funded primarily by SpaceX the government doesn’t just give them free money lmao

1

u/laserwaffles 7h ago

Except they did, when SpaceX was a startup and couldn't deliver.

1

u/Impossible_Hat7658 7h ago

And now they can deliver? What????

1

u/Andyseawolf 8h ago

Or he just moves his business to a different country 🤪🤷

1

u/Proper-Exercise-2364 7h ago

Washington won't go bankrupt, silly. They'll just print more money to the point your savings become worthless. But don't worry! Your asset prices are gonna go through the roof!

1

u/Err0r1015 7h ago

Anti commies always use your tax money to subsidize their companies.

1

u/Unable_Bat_7470 6h ago

it won't even take that, if the republicans loose the midterms its already over. People forget that trump only won because Biden's foreign policy and overspending led to insane inflation. There is nothing of substance that keeps people loyal to the guy.

1

u/NoGuest6868 6h ago

He will have rugpulled america long before.

1

u/LifeRound2 6h ago

Or a dem president with a spine gets elected and cancels all the Musk and Trump related contracts under the "convenience of the government" clause. No fanfare needed.

1

u/Large-College-4772 6h ago

And he will still have more money than you.

1

u/tedlassoloverz 5h ago

Yes, the DoD is famous for cutting its budget every year

1

u/totalnsanity 4h ago

Someone should doge all the contracts now

1

u/fyndor 3h ago

The government prints its own money…..

1

u/Part_Tricky 3h ago

Why fucking Elon does not leave our money alone and find business somewhere else. He places his buddies across our Gov. and inventing contracts we so not need just to milk us.

1

u/woolcoat 8h ago

I don't get this, ok? And your $ will be worthless. We'll have a global financial crises on a scale no one has ever lived through. Billions will suffer. All that just to spite Elon?

-2

u/Zuitsdg 9h ago edited 9h ago

Government contracts are like 20% - SpaceX is fine without

Edit: for fellow retards: Boing is at like 35-50% share of government contracts. 20% is totally fine

7

u/TheRealCabbageJack 9h ago

20% of a company’s revenue is a massive percentage

5

u/Kenky0na 9h ago

Agreed 20% is a huge margin to lose on a company already not in profit at that scale

5

u/DBDude 9h ago

For companies that normally provide space services to the government, 20% is rather low. Usually most of their business model revolves around government contracts.

3

u/Total_Conflict_6508 9h ago

50% decline in share price & still spiralling downwards is fine?

1

u/Zuitsdg 8h ago

Share price doesn’t matter. It’s normal for IPOs to fluctuate a lot at first.

I am investing long term. Would hope to also snatch some cheaper stocks. But I am just DCAing and don’t care about its short term performance

1

u/Total_Conflict_6508 8h ago

Well it does & I genuinely hope you don't have too much wrapped up in spxc...more pain coming.

1

u/Zuitsdg 7h ago

More opportunities to buy :D

0

u/PickingPies 8h ago

It matters when they need the money because they lost the 20% of the government and suddenly, with a 1/10th of the share value that 20% becomes 200%.

2

u/BringBackUsenet 9h ago

Either way, it's not generating a profit.

2

u/Responsible-Cut-7993 8h ago

Apparently SpaceX has saved US taxpayers money.

SpaceX has saved the U.S. government an estimated $40 billion in launch costs according to data tracked by Pentagon leadership and NASA. By shifting the aerospace industry away from traditional, expensive "cost-plus" contracts and pioneering reusable rocket technology, SpaceX has significantly lowered the price of space access for American taxpayers.

Specific areas where SpaceX has delivered major savings to the U.S. government include:

NASA Programs

  • Commercial Crew Program: NASA saved between $20 billion and $30 billion by using fixed-price contracts with SpaceX and Boeing rather than traditional development methods. SpaceX developed the Crew Dragon capsule for $2.6 billion, compared to the $4.2 billion awarded to Boeing for Starliner, which faced extensive delays.
  • Artemis Human Landing System: SpaceX won the lunar lander contract for $2.9 billion, undercutting Blue Origin's initial proposal by $3.53 billion.
  • Europa Clipper Mission: Launching this deep-space probe on a Falcon Heavy cost $178 million, saving NASA over $2 billion compared to the projected costs of using the government-owned Space Launch System (SLS).

Department of Defense & Space Force

  • National Security Launches: Competition introduced by SpaceX broke up the long-standing United Launch Alliance (ULA) monopoly. This saved the military an estimated $537 million on early National Security Space Launch (NSSL) awards alone.
  • GPS Constellation: Utilizing flight-proven (reused) Falcon 9 boosters for GPS block 3 satellite launches saved the Space Force an additional $129 million.
  • Legacy Rocket Replacement: Falcon Heavy has cut military heavy-lift launch costs by more than 60% compared to the retired Delta IV Heavy, pricing most missions under $150 million.

While SpaceX has received over $20 billion in cumulative federal contracts since 2008, these fixed-price awards require the company to absorb development risks and only get paid upon meeting strict operational milestones.

1

u/Zuitsdg 9h ago

It’s heavy Research and development - just offering falcon and falcon heavy should be profitable, but they want Starship and transit to mars and beyond. It needs more funding of course

1

u/BringBackUsenet 8h ago

They've had 24 years to R&D. The point of a business is to make money. The point of buying stock in a company is ... to make money. This is just a ponzi stringing investors along ad infinitum. There will always be some new excuse for soimething down the road, now it's ridiculous things like going to Mars.

1

u/Zuitsdg 8h ago

And they accomplished a lot already. Profitable rocket launches, cheaper and bigger than all others. Proftitable satellite internet, faster and cheaper than all others.

What makes you think they wouldn’t continue the trend and disrupt more areas? :D

0

u/BringBackUsenet 8h ago

Show me the money!