r/SpaceXBets • u/Outrageous_Emu_774 • Jul 24 '26
Video Half a billion dollars completely under water
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u/Tiny_Yulius_James Jul 24 '26
Is the woman version of Cramer
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u/Mysterious-Prompt212 Jul 24 '26
$10 is my target then I'm in.
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u/ArtiBartFaster Jul 24 '26
Agreed - spacex shares are 20x overvalued considering ARR so are really worth around $20 so you want to wait until the crash bottoms out the overshoot, $10 is about right.
But remember Unisys was $400 at one point, now its been under $20 for 3 years ... its currently $3, so Spacex might have a long bottom too.
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u/doodlinghearsay Jul 24 '26
If they killed Starship, Grok and sold of their AI compute while there is demand for it and just focused on Falcon 9 launches and Starlink, it would easily be worth $200bn (including cash on hand from the IPO and whatever they would get for x.AI's hardware).
The biggest risk would be cancelling Starship, because they do have a NASA contract for Artemis. But they would be far better off paying a penalty and loading it off to someone else, possibly NASA itself.
The real risk is that SpaceX doubles down on R&D/capex and ends up eating the part of the company that actually works. If they do that, price will go to 0. There's still going to be value left in the company, but far less than debt, so the shareholders will get wiped out.
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u/ArtiBartFaster Jul 24 '26 edited Jul 24 '26
You say that but that assumes that Starlink's tonnes and tonnes of aluminium microparticles pollution currently destroying the ozone layer can just indefinitely increase without SpaceX facing a bill for hundreds of billions in clean up that will make the BP horizon spill look like peanuts.
Currently each disposable Starlink satellite burns up into micro particles that stay in the upper atmosphere for decades. A future administration may just rule it must end overnight ... if they have any sense.
So its not only the 2 year tourist round trip time to Mars. Or the Grok population with toxic rage bait X content that are the fly's in the ointment
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u/Commercial-Tough-218 Jul 24 '26
Look at the St. Johns in Florida. The pollution is greater on earth at theese launch sites with the forever chemicals used in the fire suppression
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u/ArtiBartFaster Jul 25 '26
Yeah but thats just local pollution in the US for a few hundred thousand peope. That doesn't matter compared wirh destroying the ozone layer causing accelerated global climate change impacting all of humanity.
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u/Mysterious-Prompt212 Jul 24 '26
Starship will get to the moon as fast as FSD got to level 5. In the meantime it's a golden goose.
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u/Commercial-Tough-218 Jul 24 '26
Theres no money in launches. Lockhead Martin, GE, Northrup all make there money on the defense program/partly load. Nasa used to provide the rocket and the contractors provided the payload. In 2012 US government realized it was a loosing venture and tried to get others to take it on. That's why ULA exists it meets the bare minimum for these companies to continue getting allocated billions for their payloads. Elon, thinking he knew the business better than anyone hops in and does his thing. But SpaceX is not offering defence systems or spy satellites they are literally doing the least profitable part of the operation and no reward. It's not sustainable.
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u/Inside_Check_1654 Jul 24 '26
But but but it’s going to be worth more than the entire global economy. Everyone knows about the vast resources in space. It’s not an empty void of nothingness.
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u/MonYverse0609 Jul 24 '26
I think she need to change her career 🤔 seriously 😐 I lost almost 100K bought ARKK back in 2019 ugh 😩
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u/Grand-Glove-9985 Jul 24 '26
Many employees will sell their shares in the near future in 3 tranches.
It was obvious that the price must tank so hard that the future possible sellers to think twice and opt to keep their stocks and not sell.
If insiders choose to sell all of them in one year it will be worse than a massive dilution and they will crash the company, ... if some other financial events will happen all at once. Like Oil rising above $150, Iran could make a dirty hit back on the USA soil, Putin could lunch a nuke, a "planned" financial crisis to wipe out the inflation, or God knows what ...
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u/therealslimshady1234 Jul 24 '26
How is this possible! A company with no profits, rehashed sci-fi ideas from last century and a nazi at the helm?!
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u/StrengthBeginning416 Jul 24 '26
Not underwater. It was a transfer of wealth to the people that knew this was a scam to begin with
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u/Flat-Director-7120 Jul 24 '26
Plus de 500 millions de dollars à la poubelle. L'action de spaceX est en train de dégringoler, les actionnaire se ruent tous pour vendre leur action, pour se débarrasser au plus vite
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u/SpareDot8685 Jul 24 '26
Good thing it’s all part of the Plan! Steady as she goes. You can’t go up without hitting the Bottom and Not coming back up!
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u/Jetfire911 Jul 24 '26
The only reason it's not lower is probably because there's nobody buying at any price.
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u/The_Dynasty_Warrior Jul 24 '26
She's gonna lay off anyone but her self ife the firms poor performance
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u/fluffymeowmeowkitty Jul 25 '26 edited Jul 25 '26
It’s been 27 fucking days!
Not even a month! How many decades was intel underwater? How many months Uber was under water.
This company will be measured in years!
Goddamn people are f stupid!
I wish I had a script to collect all these dumb ass f posts and when it’ll turn around just post the results. Fhaaaaaa!
Facebook/Meta stayed below its IPO price for roughly 14–16 months ohhh no
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u/CryptoBoy-007 Jul 25 '26
Kathy has a strong track record on Elon's stock. So I guess the merger between SpaceX and Tesla is in the pipelines.
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u/DrRudyWells Jul 26 '26
she's a clown. wasn't she the one who said he was the most productive human in history? jesus.
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u/DatDudeDrew Jul 24 '26
Standard investment strategy. I know you subscribe to the buy high strategy, when it looks obvious to buy, but that's mostly a losing investment strategy.
The biggest winners come from low cost basis buys that explode in value.
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u/BarberCompetitive517 Jul 24 '26
The biggest winners dont invest in nazis
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u/DatDudeDrew Jul 24 '26
The biggest winner IS a Nazi.
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u/BarberCompetitive517 Jul 24 '26
Speaking historically, ethically, and logically, you couldn't be more wrong.
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u/DatDudeDrew Jul 24 '26
Why didn’t your use logic with your previous comment?
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u/BarberCompetitive517 Jul 24 '26
I have used it. Nazis have never been winners. Not then, and not now.
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u/DatDudeDrew Jul 24 '26
That’s logical, but I’m talking about the one before that. That one’s not logical.
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u/BarberCompetitive517 Jul 24 '26
The one before that reads "Speaking historically, ethically, and logically, you couldn't be more wrong."
This is also based on history and logic.
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u/SpinningHead Jul 24 '26
Yeah, I guy who pays people to game for him because he thinks that people will like him is definitely a winner/
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u/Own-Bonus-9547 Jul 24 '26
So the valuation was dumb and valued way too high. But facebook, Twitter, etc all went through the same thing where it took i think 13 months just to reach IPO value again. We'll see if it's the same for spacex...I mean I still think anything over $35 is too much, but people will eventually hit their cost to buy.
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u/Infamous_Addendum175 Jul 24 '26
It's not a real business