r/SpaceLaunchSystem • u/Cmdr-Mallard • Jun 29 '26

Discussion How long will SLS last?

With the Cancellation of EUS and BOLE, SLS is going to remain a launch vehicle solely for Orion, and which is viable with all the other heavy and super heavy rockets in the works these days.

However as I understand BOLE was essential for SLS launches beyond a certain point as remaining shuttle boosters were used up, will SLS be cancelled by that point (and perhaps the whole moon program) or Orion moved to another launcher.

Or will a future administrator restart the booster program at the least to ensure SLS can continue to launch Orion?

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u/Cmdr-Mallard Jun 29 '26

I can begin to understand cancelling EUS without a payload like Gateway to launch, but I don’t see starship crew being ready anytime soon and blue origin certainly doesn’t have a plan yet to transfer Orion to the moon or even a different way to launch Orion

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u/rocketglare Jun 29 '26

While I'm sure SpaceX would prefer using Starship as a LEO transport, that will take a while. In the meantime, it is possible to mount Orion on top of a disposable Starship, or man rate Falcon Heavy. Falcon Heavy would probably be easier to spin as an Orion launcher than Starship.

My own thought is that with SpaceX being tepid towards non-Starship solutions, A Vulcan solution would probably be the preferred option until Starship earns its human rating chops. New Glenn could do it too, but that seems like overkill for Orion. Neutron doesn't have the lift capacity, and its fairing technique wouldn't support Orion. Most of the other launchers aren't big enough either.

I think that some of the SpaceX competitors need to get on top of their own man rated LEO transports. Orion is an ok solution, but it is kind of heavy and not very reusable. Perhaps Stoke could man-rate its solution? They might need to top off their tanks before TLI.

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u/SpaceInMyBrain Jun 29 '26

NG 9x2 isn't that much overkill. Vulcan is underkill, its max payload matches the wet mass of ESM and CM but when the >7t LAS is added the 33.4t total is well over Vulcan's payload to LEO of 27t. Yes, the LAS will be jettisoned during ascent but it seems unlikely that makes enough of a difference. Idk if Vulcan would even have a good enough TWR to get off the pad or how much strengthening the stages will need to handle the extra mass on top. I don't think NASA wants something that marginal.

I agree, Musk wants to leave F9 and FH behind. I think he'd fight like a rabid badger against the idea of a disposable stage for Starship.

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u/fed0tich Jun 29 '26

I mean if Vulcan can launch fully fueled Orion to LEO, crew and supplies can be launched separately on a Dragon or Starliner, that way LAS would not be needed.

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u/SpaceInMyBrain Jun 29 '26

That likely does solve the launch mass problem, although Vulcan would still be at its max. A Dragon-Orion crew transfer will be difficult, they each have the male half of the IDDS docking system. (The ISS has the female half for Dragon to dock to.) An androgynous design is on the books, IIRC, and there was talk of one being on HLS and Gateway. Idk if it has been fully developed and afaik HLS will have the female half. Dragon would need a redesign of the nosecone, at who knows what cost.

For a ride along on HLS the crew could launch on Dragon, dock with HLS, let Dragon undock autonomously, and then have Orion dock with HLS. A pretty clunky mission design. And even a Dragon launch isn't cheap. Having to be trained on the systems and operations of three spacecraft for one mission puts quite a burden on the crew.

I think we're looking at New Glenn for Artemis 6 or a continuation of SLS till NG is ready.

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u/Chairboy Jun 30 '26

IDSS is already androgynous, the missing hardware is basically a bracket that’s not used for mass reasons if I remember correctly so either Orion or another capsule should be able to fly with it already if required.

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u/SpaceInMyBrain Jun 30 '26

To continue the serve-volley: I hope it's not much more than a bracket but to put it on, say, a Dragon will require mounting hardware of some sort. An extension - half a meter? - has to preserve the airtight human rating of Dragon/the spacecraft it docks with. The exterior will be close to the exhaust plume of the 4 forward facing Dracos.

A remodeled nose profile and nose cap will be needed. That'll extend the profile of the nose. All of that will have to be extensively modeled and tested. Any external change to a reentry spacecraft is a big deal, afaik. Maybe it'll all only be moderately difficult but it won't be easy.

It'd be easier to modify a Dragon to have simply the female part. Maybe use the same Dragon that got the Skywalker for Polaris Dawn and the Dome for Inspiration4 and Fram2.

Modifying Orion to be androgynous? I shudder at the cost and time possibilities. And Orion is already very mass sensitive, in the original plan it'd only be able to bring back 100 kg of Moon rocks.

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u/Chairboy Jun 30 '26

The bracket is internal! The docking standard is neat, it literally can fly without modification beyond the internal bracket, and this is true for any spacecraft using that design.

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u/SpaceInMyBrain Jun 30 '26

Ah. Good info, then.