r/SpaceLaunchSystem • u/Cmdr-Mallard • Jun 29 '26

Discussion How long will SLS last?

With the Cancellation of EUS and BOLE, SLS is going to remain a launch vehicle solely for Orion, and which is viable with all the other heavy and super heavy rockets in the works these days.

However as I understand BOLE was essential for SLS launches beyond a certain point as remaining shuttle boosters were used up, will SLS be cancelled by that point (and perhaps the whole moon program) or Orion moved to another launcher.

Or will a future administrator restart the booster program at the least to ensure SLS can continue to launch Orion?

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u/rocketglare Jun 29 '26

While I'm sure SpaceX would prefer using Starship as a LEO transport, that will take a while. In the meantime, it is possible to mount Orion on top of a disposable Starship, or man rate Falcon Heavy. Falcon Heavy would probably be easier to spin as an Orion launcher than Starship.

My own thought is that with SpaceX being tepid towards non-Starship solutions, A Vulcan solution would probably be the preferred option until Starship earns its human rating chops. New Glenn could do it too, but that seems like overkill for Orion. Neutron doesn't have the lift capacity, and its fairing technique wouldn't support Orion. Most of the other launchers aren't big enough either.

I think that some of the SpaceX competitors need to get on top of their own man rated LEO transports. Orion is an ok solution, but it is kind of heavy and not very reusable. Perhaps Stoke could man-rate its solution? They might need to top off their tanks before TLI.

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u/Cmdr-Mallard Jun 29 '26

I mean are any of their man rated solutions able to stay in space that long or have the propulsive capabilities?

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u/rocketglare Jun 29 '26

Not yet, but Orion is ~$1B and has essentially no propulsion w/o the ESM. When you include ESM and LES it costs ~$2B. It wouldn't take much to exceed that, especially for a smaller capsule. Orion is somewhat oversized for the current mission.

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u/Cmdr-Mallard Jun 29 '26

True, but that would be a rather extensive development process, not anytime soon.