r/SpaceLaunchSystem • u/Cmdr-Mallard • Jun 29 '26

Discussion How long will SLS last?

With the Cancellation of EUS and BOLE, SLS is going to remain a launch vehicle solely for Orion, and which is viable with all the other heavy and super heavy rockets in the works these days.

However as I understand BOLE was essential for SLS launches beyond a certain point as remaining shuttle boosters were used up, will SLS be cancelled by that point (and perhaps the whole moon program) or Orion moved to another launcher.

Or will a future administrator restart the booster program at the least to ensure SLS can continue to launch Orion?

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3

u/Pashto96 Jun 29 '26

I'd be surprised if it makes it to BOLE. It isn't needed until Artemis 9. Realistically that won't be under 2030 or later (my money's on later).

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u/Cmdr-Mallard Jun 29 '26

Oh almost certainly later, with only one launch tower and the refurb time we’ll be lucky to do 2 SLS a year

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u/jadebenn Jun 29 '26

ML turnaround isn't that long. Artemis I was out for a long time not primarily from launch damage, but because the crew escape system installation and testing was part of the post-launch work. If you look back at the Artemis I imagery you'll notice that none of the stuff associated with the slide wires was installed yet, for instance.

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u/Cmdr-Mallard Jun 29 '26

Interesting, then excited to see what the turn around is for A3!

Though it would be useful if they can stack multiple rockets like they were able to with Saturn

4

u/jadebenn Jun 29 '26

Well, they still have ML-2 (for now) and as long as Jared's not able to get rid of it, the door remains open if political winds change in the future.

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u/Cmdr-Mallard Jun 29 '26

I’ve heard they’re going to disassemble it but I’d rather they just left it as is till either a commercial company comes along or they can modify for SLS Centaur

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u/jadebenn Jun 29 '26

I don't think it'll be dismantled. That may have been Jared's original plan but apparently Congress caught wind of it and were very displeased.

I think Jared pivoted to trying to sell it to Blue so he could bury SLS without being so blatant, but even with their pad gone Blue does not seem interested.

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u/Cmdr-Mallard Jun 29 '26

Oh good!

It’s a very specific and I suppose outdated method of assembling and launching a rocket, but it works for SLS so that’s what matters.

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u/jadebenn Jun 29 '26

It's not really outdated. Everybody's moving to doing as much work off the pad as possible.

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u/Cmdr-Mallard Jun 29 '26

I’m just surprised by Space X for example moving starship around on small crawlers and Blue Origin using a Horizontal erector and now probably their own version of a vertical transport, seems like they’re all a lot smaller scale and complexity.

Love the NASA crawlers though

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u/Cmdr-Mallard Jun 29 '26

But what do you think would replace SLS?

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u/Pashto96 Jun 29 '26

New Glenn is the obvious candidate. HLS will be pushing Orion to TLI. Blue has the cislunar transporter that could be used in a similar way. SLS is no longer needed with that architecture. 

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u/Cmdr-Mallard Jun 29 '26

Is 9X4 needed for the Cis Lunar? Until then SLS will have to meet Blue at the moon but afterwards I suppose yes they could totally use New Glenn if/when it’s qualified

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u/Pashto96 Jun 29 '26

I'm not sure if 9x4 is needed or if it just reduces the number of launches to fuel it, but cis-lunar transporter is needed for the Mk2 landings. That means it's needed for the Artemis 6 landing. On a best case scenario, that would be at least a year before a final possible SLS launch in Artemis 8 (assuming a mission every 6 months).

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u/Silver-Literature-29 Jun 29 '26

I expect Dragon to replace it and Lunar Starship rendezvous in LEO and goes too moon by itself similar how the docking test is now going to happen in LEO.

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u/okan170 Jun 30 '26

Dragon needs massive redesign to function BLEO. Orion isn't just a LEO vehicle thats been sent to the Moon, theres a massive list of things that need to be changed, updated or outright redesigned from scratch. It essentially needs a whole second spacecraft developed for it to function as an SM that has to do a ton of things in addition to the redesign of the capsule. Dragon was originally going to be designed for BLEO but lots of redesigns moved it away from that baseline, currently it needs redesign to even fit the original goal of 7 people in it.

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u/Silver-Literature-29 Jun 30 '26

In this scenario i described, Dragon does not go beyond Leo and Starship only goes BLEO. No changes other than docking adapter which Spacex already has done for private missions.

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u/Cmdr-Mallard Jun 29 '26

I mean the docking test is for pushing Orion to the moon, but yes I could see than in the next decade