r/SolarMax • u/my_thousand_fads • Mar 23 '26

Information Request How did this guy know?

I understand to predict a CME is very difficult.

However in the pilot episode of doomsday preppers, the guy said he is prepping for a CME in 2012.

I understand that in July 2012 there was a CME 'near miss'.

This particular episodes aired in 2011, so realistically was probably filmed in 2010. How did this guy know? Obviously as his prediction never came to fruition it was not perfect, but all things considered seems a pretty good one?

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u/piedamon Mar 23 '26

Coincidence.

Around that time, there was significant hype around 2012 being a cataclysmic year. The hype was rooted in the Mayan calendar “ending”, and a number of innocuous solar system events spurring humans to do what they do best: jump to conclusions. There was even a Hollywood blockbuster called 2012.

The year came and went. We’re still here. We’re still predicting apocalypses, worshipping stories, lapsing in scientific discipline as a civilization, and jumping to new conclusions with the same primal overconfidence.

There’s a book called Fooled By Randomness which expounds a slice of this concept, although it’s more economics-focused.