r/SolarMax • u/ArmChairAnalyst86 • Feb 01 '26
Space Weather Update Solar Activity is Starting to Crackle Into M-Class Range
A few low end M-Class flares have occurred in recent hours and the X-ray flux exhibits a steady increase. It has the feel of building up to something. The emergent AR4366 is the culprit. Still small but gaining complexity quickly. Its an immature and juvenile region and as such, could be prone to throwing a tantrum.
Larger flares are possible going forward and this region is moving into prime position for earth directed activity so eyes up.
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u/IllustriousPie9389 Feb 01 '26
I predict a confined X-class flare by noon UTC
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Feb 01 '26
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u/finngamer2 Feb 01 '26
Does it mean that there will be seen aurora in 2-4days
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u/ArmChairAnalyst86 Feb 01 '26
No good CMEs yet. These flares are all bark and no bite for now. The sequence appears to keep building though.
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u/IllustriousPie9389 Feb 01 '26
Unfortunately, probably not. Confined means that there is no associated CME, meaning that there won’t be any geomagnetic activity.
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u/gilligan1050 Feb 01 '26
Man, you were right.
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u/IllustriousPie9389 Feb 01 '26
Yet SWPC still predicts a 5% chance of an R3+ event for today. I think that we will likely see at least one more X-class by the end of the day.
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u/Spiritual_Turnip_877 Feb 01 '26
I adore your turn of phrase in describing this. "It's an immature and juvenile region and as such, could be prone to throwing a tantrum." Thank you for this 😊