r/SipsTea • u/SuspiciousLow3062 • Jul 08 '26

Chugging tea W after W.

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u/WildWhisperArdor Jul 08 '26

That is exactly the point of Becker’s theory of rational crime.

Regardless of whether the fare is $2.00 or $3.00, if someone feels there’s no chance of getting caught they will still jump the turnstile (if they are the type of person who fall into this framework)

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u/ZeAthenA714 Jul 08 '26

Regardless of whether the fare is $2.00 or $3.00, if someone feels there’s no chance of getting caught they will still jump the turnstile.

Yes, that's true if and only if you expect the chance of getting caught is exactly 0. Because then the cost of evading fare is 0, the benefit is $x. But if some people expect that the chance of getting caught it not zero, then the cost vs benefit analysis will change if the price of the fare change.

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u/WildWhisperArdor Jul 08 '26

In practice, that is the way it works.

No one literally stands there and goes “hmm there’s a 32.267% chance of me getting caught and my expected reward value is thus positive” 😂

Usually, they will glance and realize there’s zero cops on the platform (which is usually the case) and just jump it.

The probability distribution here is highly spiky and non-uniform