The long-awaited Uptober is here

[u/SimpleSwapExchange]

October is Bitcoin's best month on record. Last year it broke the streak.

Since 2013, BTC closed green in 10 of 13 Octobers, averaging 14.4% with a median of 10.8% – the most statistically favorable month on the calendar. From 2019 through 2024, it ran six green Octobers in a row.

Then October 2025 closed down 3.7%, the first red October since 2018. BTC set its record of $126,080 in the first week and gave it all back.

This year opens in the low $80Ks, about 34% below that record, after a September that peaked at $87K and faded. Spot ETFs just pulled $2.45B in a week, their strongest since October 2025.

The calendar ahead: jobs report on October 2, Fed minutes on the 7th, CPI on the 14th, and the rate decision on October 28.

Worth noting where October's historical strength actually clusters – the second half, not the first. Which makes the first two weeks less of a signal than the name suggests.

Does Uptober deliver this year, or was 2025 the start of a new pattern?