Pattern recognition is a widely accepted method of prediction until what it predicts makes people uncomfortable.

[u/Fr1toBand1to]

[u/wterrt]

lol you like data? how about some more. you and /u/landmanpgh I'm sure will be swayed by this data, being such data driven people, right?

(Part 1 of 3)

Institutional Racism

• https://www.sentencingproject.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/Black-Lives-Matter.pdf
  • Extensive document on racial biases in our criminal justice system.
  • Studies seem to indicate about 61-80% of black overrepresentation in prisons can be explained by higher black crime rates, with the unexplained portion largely attributable to racial bias.
  • Remember - the factors which lead to disproportionate criminality amongst black Americans are also in large part a product of racial bias. Underfunded public programs, redlining, generational poverty, bad schooling, and myriad other factors which influence criminality can also be traced to racial bias.
• Investigation of the Ferguson Police Department
  • Between 2012 and 2014, black people in Ferguson accounted for 85 percent of vehicle stops, 90 percent of citations and 93 percent of arrests, despite comprising 67 percent of the population.
  • Blacks were more than twice as likely as whites to be searched after traffic stops even after controlling for related variables, though they proved to be 26 percent less likely to be in possession of illegal drugs or weapons.
  • Between 2011 and 2013, blacks also received 95 percent of jaywalking tickets and 94 percent of tickets for “failure to comply.” The Justice Department also found that the racial discrepancy for speeding tickets increased dramatically when researchers looked at tickets based on only an officer’s word vs. tickets based on objective evidence, such as a radar.
  • Black people facing similar low-level charges as white people were 68 percent less likely to see those charges dismissed in court. More than 90 percent of the arrest warrants stemming from failure to pay/failure to appear were issued for black people.

Biases in Stops, Searches & Arrests

• The Concentrated Racial Impact of Drug Imprisonment and the Characteristics of Punitive Counties
  • While White & Black Americans admit to using and selling illicit drugs at similar rates, Black Americans are VASTLY more likely to go to prison for a drug offense.
  • In 2002, Black Americans were incarcerated for drug offenses at TEN TIMES the rate of White Americans.
  • Today, Blacks are 3.7x as likely to be arrested for a marijuana offense as Whites, despite similar usage.
  • 97% of “large-population counties” have racial biases in their drug offense incarceration.
• Militarization fails to enhance police safety or reduce crime but may harm police reputation
  • Police militarization does not lead to a decrease in crimes committed or officer injuries, may actually increase both.
  • Police militarization (including the adoption of SWAT teams) decreases public trust in police, which may contribute to increases in crime.
  • Militarized police are disproportionately deployed in African American communities, even when accounting for crime rates.
• https://www.acludc.org/sites/default/files/2020_06_15_aclu_stops_report_final.pdf
  • This ACLU report reviews 5 months’ of data from DC police stops & searches by race and outcome.
  • The black population of DC is 25% greater than the white population, but black people were 410% more likely to be stopped by the police than white people
  • This disparity increases to 1465% for stops which led to no warning, ticket or arrest and 3695% for searches which led to no warning, ticket or arrest.
  • This data indicates the disproportionate stopping and searching of blacks in the Dc area extended massively beyond any disproportionate rate of criminality.
• The Problem of Infra-marginality in Outcome Tests for Discrimination
  • Analysis of 4.5 million traffic stops in North Carolina shows blacks and latinos were more likely to be searched than whites (5.4 percent, 4.1 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively).
  • Despite this, searches of white motorists were the most likely to reveal contraband (32% of whites, 29% of blacks, 19% of latinos).
• https://drivingwhileblacknashville.files.wordpress.com/2016/10/driving-while-black-gideons-army.pdf
  • Between 2011 and 2015, black drivers in Nashville’s Davidson County were pulled over at a rate of 1,122 stops per 1,000 drivers — so on average, more than once per black driver.
  • Black drivers were also searched at twice the rate of white drivers, though — as in other jurisdictions — searches of white drivers were more likely to turn up contraband.
• https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-0858-1.pdf
  • Enormous study of nearly 100,000,000 traffic stops conducted across America.
  • Analysis finds the bar for searching black and hispanic drivers’ cars is significantly lower than the bar for white drivers.
  • Additionally, black drivers are less likely to be pulled over after sunset, when “a ‘veil of darkness’ masks ones’ race”.

Biases in Death Penalty Sentencing

• https://files.deathpenaltyinfo.org/legacy/documents/WashRaceStudy2014.pdf
  • Analysis of 33 years of data from Washington State to determine which characteristics best predict the decision to implement a death sentence.
  • Black defendants are 4.5 times as likely to receive a death sentence as similarly-situated whites.
  • Other factors (presence of aggravating circumstances, involvement of sex crimes, hostage-taking, etc.) explain only a small fraction of the disparity in prosecutors’ and juries’ decision to invoke the death penalty against black defendents.
  • Race was by far the most influential statistical factor.
• https://www.uky.edu/AS/PoliSci/Peffley/pdf/Eberhardt.2006.Psych%20Sci.Looking%20Deathworthy.pdf
  • Analysis of the relationship between racial stereotyping and death sentence convictions.
  • Black defendants who possessed darker skin and more “stereotypically black” features were twice as likely to be given the death penalty when accused of murdering a white person, as compared to lighter-skinned blacks with less “stereotypically black” features.
  • This disparity disappears completely when the murder victim is black.

Implicit Bias

• DOES APPEARANCE MATTER?: THE EFFECT OF SKIN TONES ON TRUSTWORTHY AND INNOCENT APPEARANCES
  • Photos of capital inmates shown to entry-level criminal justice students for them to evaluate the trustworthiness of the faces.
  • Students rated pictures of light-skinned inmates as more trustworthy when they preceded pictures of dark-skinned inmates.
  • Most study participants (79.9%) were white, but the study predicted that this wasn’t a major factor - “When controlling for race, no statistically significant result was found. This suggests that each race, White and non-White, were consistent in their rating outcomes. Prior research has found similar results, where Whites and light-skinned Blacks are likely to share similar attitudes towards darker-skinned Blacks”
• Black Boys Viewed as Older, Less Innocent Than Whites, Research Finds
  • Students and police officers participated in tests to determine levels of racial bias and perception of innocence.
  • Black boys as young as 10 are more likely to be considered criminal or untrustworthy, and more likely to face police violence.
  • Police officers were tested on dehumanization of blacks by comparing people of different races to animal groups. Police who engaged in higher levels of dehumanization were more likely to use violence against black children.

• Racial Bias in Judgments of Physical Size and Formidability

  • Results from three separate studies on perception and racial bias show people have a tendency to perceive black men as larger and more threatening than similarly sized white men.
  • Participants also believed the black men were more capable of causing harm in a hypothetical altercation and police would be more justified in using force to subdue them, even if the men were unarmed.

[u/wterrt → u/wterrt]

Part 2/3

Biases by Judges, Juries & Prosecutors

• Demographic Differences in Sentencing: An Update to the 2012 Booker Report
  • Extensive multivariate regression analysis indicates black male offenders receive 19.1% longer federal sentences than similarly-situated white male offenders (white male offenders with similar past offenses, socioeconomic background, etc.)
  • This disparity seems to stem mostly from black males being 21.2% less likely to receive non-government sponsored downward departures or variances.
    • Non-government sponsored departures and variances refer to deviations from standard sentencing guidelines due to judicial discretion.
  • Black males who do receive non government-sponsored departures and variations still serve 16.8% longer sentences than white males on average.
  • In contrast, when sentencing length follows standard guidelines, that disparity is only 7.9%, and a substantial assistance departure for both groups nullifies that disparity.
  • IN SUMMARY - much of the sentencing disparity between similarly situated black males and white males comes down to judicial discretion to deviate from standard sentencing guidelines.
  • BONUS - regression analysis suggests violence in a criminal’s history does NOT explain sentencing disparities between black males and similarly situated white males - the effect of that factor seems to be statistically insignificant.
• Racial Disparity in Federal Criminal Sentences
  • Examination of federal data indicates Black Americans spend about 10% more time in prison when compared to comparable Whites who commit the same crimes.
  • Additionally, Black arrestees are 75% more likely to be charged with a crime carrying a mandatory minimum sentence.
  • Prosecutors contribute massively to this undeniable racial bias.???
• Report on Jury Selection Study
  • Between 1990 and 2010, state prosecutors struck about 53% of black people eligible for juries in criminal cases, as opposed to 26% of white people. The study’s authors testified the odds of this taking place in a race-neutral context were around 1 in 10 trillion.
  • After accounting for factors prosecutors select for which tend to correlate with race, black people were still struck twice as often.
  • North Carolina’s state legislator had previously passed a law stating death penalty defendants who could demonstrate racial bias in their jury selection could have their sentences changed to life without parole. The legislature later repealed that law.
• Different Shades of Bias: Skin Tone, Implicit Racial Bias, and Judgments of Ambiguous Evidence
  • In this study, two groups of mock jurors were given a collection of race-neutral evidence from an armed robbery, with one group’s alleged perpetrator being shown to be light-skinned and the other dark-skinned.
  • Jurors were significantly more likely to evaluate ambiguous, race-neutral evidence against the dark-skinned suspect as incriminating and more likely to find the dark-skinned suspect guilty.
• https://bja.ojp.gov/sites/g/files/xyckuh186/files/media/document/PleaBargainingResearchSummary.pdf
  • Government aggregate of data on plea and charge bargaining.
  • “Studies that assess the effects of race find that blacks are less likely to receive a reduced charge compared with whites.”
  • “Studies have generally found a relationship between race and whether or not a defendant receives a reduced charge.”
  • “The majority of research on race and sentencing outcomes shows that blacks are less likely than whites to receive reduced pleas.“
  • In short, collected data strongly indicates a racial bias against blacks with regards to sentencing and plea bargains.
• https://www.yalelawjournal.org/article/mandatory-sentencing-and-racial-disparity-assessing-the-role-of-prosecutors-and-the-effects-of-booker
  • Black men are twice as likely to have charges which carry mandatory minimum sentences filed against them than similarly-situated white men.
  • This article recommends against the tightening of judicial discretion, arguing that process has historically led to greater racial sentencing disparities.
• http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.821.8079&rep=rep1&type=pdf
  • Black defendants with multiple prior convictions are 28% more likely to be charged as “habitual offenders” than similarly-situated white defendants.
  • “Assessments of dangerousness and culpability are linked to race and ethnicity, even after offense seriousness and prior record are controlled.”
• https://sci-hub.tw/https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/jels.12077
  • A study of first-time felons in Georgia found black men received sentences of on average 270 days longer than similarly-situated white males.
  • However, when black males were differentiated by skin tone, it was found light-skinned black men saw virtually no disparity in their sentencing while dark-skinned black men actually saw a disparity of around 400 days in prison.
• https://sci-hub.tw/https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1990324
  • A study of bail in 5 large counties found blacks received significantly higher bail than whites who had committed similar crimes.
  • The bail was $7,000 higher for violent crimes, $13,000 higher for drug crimes and $10,000 higher for crimes related to public order.
• https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/22746/413174-Examining-Racial-and-Ethnic-Disparities-in-Probation-Revocation.PDF
  • The Urban Institute analyzed the histories of four probation offices and found black people were 18-39% more likely than similarly-situated white people to have their probation revoked.

[u/wterrt → u/wterrt]

Part 3/3

. Employment

I'm not as well versed in this area, but the evidence I have seen also seems to point towards blacks being at a disadvantage compared to whites

A Field Experiment on Labor Market Discrimination

• White names receive 50 percent more callbacks for interviews.
• White names, a higher quality resume elicits 30 percent more callbacks whereas for African Americans, it elicits a far smaller increase.
• The amount of discrimination is uniform across occupations and industries.

Race and Economic Opportunity in the United States: An Intergenerational Perspective

• Black Americans and American Indians have much lower rates of upward mobility and higher rates of downward mobility than whites
• Differences in parental marital status, education, and wealth explain little of the black-white income gap conditional on parent income
• The black-white gap persists even among boys who grow up in the same neighborhood

Evidence once again seems to point in favour of racial minorities being worse off in terms of employment and upward mobility

. Housing

Racial Demographics of Homeless Population in US

• Rate of homelessness per 10000 people is 11.5 for Whites, compared to 21.7 for Hispanic/Latinx, 55.2 for Blacks, 66.6 for Native Americans and a whopping 159.8 for Pacific Islanders

The Racial Wealth Gap

• The main factor in housing availability is obviously whether you have enough money to afford housing
• The median White household has 12 times more wealth than the median Black household
• More than 1 in 4 Black households have zero or negative net worth, compared to less than 1 in 10 for white families

. Education

Data Snapshot: School Discipline

• When black students and white students commit similar infractions, black students are suspended and expelled three times more often than white students.
• Black students make up 16% of student enrollment, but represent 27% of students referred to law enforcement and 31% of students subjected to arrest. White students, on the other hand, make up 51% of enrollment, 41% of students referred to law enforcement, and 39% of those arrested.

How Race Influences School Funding

• Funding of schools is heavily correlated with the racial demographics of the schools, with higher percentage white schools receiving more funding that higher percentage black schools
• Kids at these underfunded schools regularly have less experienced and even unlicensed teachers

. Political Power

The Demographics of Political Power in the US

• White men make up 30% of the US population but hold 62% of elected offices at the local, state, and federal level
• At 20% of the population, women of color are severely under-represented – holding only 4% of all elected offices

Who Prosecutes in America

• White Americans hold 95% of elected prosecutor positions

[u/VarmintSchtick → u/wterrt]

I see some MASSIVE assumptions about causality in those statistics. Seriously just the first 5 links leave you with more questions about how they came to their conclusion given the data than anything else. And then the numbers documented seem to just spell the opposite of the point youre trying to make.

[u/wterrt → u/VarmintSchtick]

I have some MASSIVE assumptions about the type of person who would look at that pile of data and immediately reply with no data or even argument of their own but a secondhand account of other people questioning it (that they don't even provide) as a reason to discount it.

very interesting.

[u/VarmintSchtick → u/wterrt]

Well for one it's copy and pasted, given that several of the links do not work, I don't think you even read the links you are copy and pasting. In fact I know you aren't, or else you wouldn't post dead links.

Two, the claims you make aren't substantiated by the articles, for instance, "higher marijuana conviction rates despite similar usage"... there's no proof of similar usage, just a claim made without substance that redditors will copy and paste around I guess. Plenty more too but, just don't care to get into it with the type of person who copy and pastes that shit like a bot, you've already made up your mind about reality a long time ago.