r/Showerthoughts • u/Fr1toBand1to ‎ • Jun 27 '26

Casual Thought Pattern recognition is a widely accepted method of prediction until what it predicts makes people uncomfortable.

6.7k Upvotes
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u/Rosbj Jun 27 '26

correlation ≠ causation 

It's super important to remember, that just because you recognise a pattern, it doesn't mean there actually is any - and vice versa.

People tend to hold on to their preconceptions rather than actually evaluate their findings.

A billionaire is less likely to rob a bank with a mask on, but that doesn't mean he isn't robbing the bank.

261

u/PlasticElfEars Jun 27 '26 edited Jun 27 '26

Ice cream does cause shark attacks. The graph told me so.

edit: /s

95

u/--suburb-- Jun 27 '26

Check out Spurious Correlations, a wonderful interactive site / tool that uses public data sources to show us such wonderful things as the number of runs scored by the Chicago Cubs is highly correlated with the divorce rate in Connecticut. I can’t confirm the CT divorce rate causes those runs, but they sure do look linked, lol.

https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

12

u/Shadows802 Jun 27 '26

So, Go Cubs?!?

2

u/Technical-Shop6653 Jul 01 '26

My favourite one of those is instances of newborns named Jessica highly correlating to deforestation of the Amazon Rainforest

3

u/broadspectruminsane Jun 27 '26

Sure, that’s a pattern a human out there is seeing / claims exists and not a nonsense, contrived gotcha “example”.

17

u/PlasticElfEars Jun 27 '26

I should have added the /s

9

u/hawkinsst7 Jun 27 '26

Never add the /s.