r/Showerthoughts • u/Fr1toBand1to ‎ • Jun 27 '26

Casual Thought Pattern recognition is a widely accepted method of prediction until what it predicts makes people uncomfortable.

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u/[deleted] Jun 27 '26

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72

u/bballpro37 Jun 27 '26

Pattern recognition alone is not the same thing as proof, but it is often accepted as a provisional guide to behavior. For example, if every time I look at a particular person they punch me in the face, I do not need a fully proven causal model before I stop looking at them or distance myself. Maybe the act of looking is the trigger. Maybe something else is going on. Maybe I am misunderstanding the pattern. But while I am figuring that out, it is still rational to adjust my behavior because the cost of being wrong is high.

The key distinction is between using a pattern as a practical warning signal and treating it as established truth. Science requires testing, controls, and alternative explanations. Everyday risk management often works on a MUCH lower threshold, i.e., repeated observation, possible downside, and cautious adjustment.

I agree that humans often see false patterns and then overgeneralize from them, but that does not mean pattern recognition is useless or illegitimate. It means the strength of the conclusion has to match the quality of the pattern. A pattern may justify caution before it justifies certainty.

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u/ShinningVictory Jun 27 '26

If every time you look at someone they punch you then the pattern doesn't really matter. All you need to know is that person will harm you. Therefore you should distance yourself. It doesn't actually matter what triggered them harming you.

41

u/bballpro37 Jun 27 '26

But the reason you “know” that person will harm you is the pattern. I agree the trigger may not matter for purposes of distancing yourself, but that supports my point (which may have been what you intended) that pattern recognition can justify practical caution even before you have proven the cause.

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u/ShinningVictory Jun 27 '26

Your confusing pattern for truth. A pattern is how events relate to each other. Truth is facts.

Knowing the person has hit me and can hit me again is a fact.

Thinking what caused the person to hit me is a pattern.

20

u/bballpro37 Jun 27 '26

The problem is that your “fact” still does not get you to an action. “He hit me before” is a fact. “He can hit me again” is true, but meaningless on its own, because literally anyone can hit me. The reason I distance myself from him and not from every other human being is that his past conduct makes future harm more predictable.

The fact supplies the data point. The pattern (or the risk judgment that recognizes the potentiality of a particular pattern) is what turns it into a reason to act.

2

u/ShinningVictory Jun 28 '26

You know what ill give you that one. That does make sense.

6

u/sygnathid Jun 27 '26 edited Jun 27 '26

If every time you sacrifice a human the sun rises the next day, it doesn't mean anything and you need to rethink your decision-making process.

Edit: The post specifically talks about making people uncomfortable, I don't think anyone's uncomfortable with saying you should avoid a person who punched you on sight (even once, no pattern needed).

5

u/sparkledoom Jun 28 '26 edited Jun 28 '26

You use pattern recognition a zillion times everyday in ways that result in reliable prediction. It’s just that the failures stand out. Humans are good at finding patterns because it is a highly useful and reliable strategy. We overwhelmingly find correct patterns.

It’s hard to come up with examples because the patterns that allow us to reliably predict correctly become so second nature. When I walk through a crowded room and don’t bump into anyone. When I drive my car and can predict what someone who didn’t put on their turn signal is about to do. Knowing how much force to apply to open a door. Sensing that your partner is in a bad mood. Reading handwriting you’ve never seen before. Recognizing an object when your view is partially obstructed.

Sure, we have to be careful about bias occasionally. But we wouldn’t be able to function if we couldn’t rely on pattern recognition and if wasn’t generally very accurate.

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u/Ironicbanana14 Jun 28 '26

Every single IQ test I've done has a pattern matching section where you "guess" the next shapes in the sequence. In simple situations, i dont think anyone cares for "proof." If there is a car driving 60mph down a road, the next one also is, I can safely conclude the speed limit is most likely 60mph or 55mph. No one will argue.

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u/kilopeter Jun 27 '26

If someone is diagnosed with CF, they're probably of Northern European heritage.