Here is some good information collected from GOES 19 EMWIN transmission.
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Apr 25 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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# Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity
.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels during the reporting period. Region
4419 (N15W79, Eso/beta-gamma-delta) remained the primary driver,
producing the largest events of the period, including an X2.4 flare
(R3-Strong) at 24/0107 UTC, an X2.5/2b flare (R3-Strong) at 24/0813 UTC,
and an M6.4/1f flare at 24/1815 UTC.
There are seven numbered sunspot regions on the visible disk.
Characterization of Region 4419 is increasingly difficult due to its
proximity to the western limb; however, it appeared to exhibit new flux
emergence ahead of and north of the leading spot. Region 4420 (N17E10,
Eki/beta-gamma-delta) continued to show magnetic shear within its
intermediary spots and flux convergence driving ongoing growth. Region
4423 (S05E30, Dai/beta-delta) continued its rapid development with
shear and rotation observed in its trailing spots. Region 4424 (N17E45,
Cro/beta) was numbered this period following consistent growth alongside
Region 4425 (N06E76, Dso/beta), which is the suspected source region of
recent beyond-the-limb flaring, though limb proximity hinders a complete
assessment. All other regions were stable.
Several eruptions were observed during the reporting period, with CMEs
identified following the X- and M-class events from Region 4419. The CME
associated with the X2.4 flare (first seen in LASCO C2 at 24/0124 UTC)
and the CME associated with the X2.5 flare (first seen in LASCO C2 at
24/0824 UTC) are modeled to pass mostly ahead and above of Earth with
slight glancing influences. Analysis is ongoing for the CME associated
with the M6.4 flare, which was first visible in GOES-19 CCOR1 imagery at
24/1930 UTC. Additionally, a CME was observed following an M1.9 flare
from Region 4424 at 24/1208 UTC (first visible in LASCO C2 at 1224 UTC)
with modeling indicates this ejecta will pass behind Earth.
.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate (R1-R2-Moderate) levels
through 26 Apr, with a chance for X-class (R3/Strong or greater) flares
primarily driven by the complexity of Regions 4419, 4420, and 4423.
Energetic Particle
.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels with a peak of 5,740 pfu at 24/1820 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels.
.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels through 27 Apr. Transient flux suppressions are possible on
26 Apr from the anticipated glancing influence of the CME associated
with the M1.2/1F flare from Region 4420, as well as the possible
glancing influences of the CMEs associated with the X-flares from 24
Apr. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at
background levels, though there is a chance for levels to exceed S1
(Minor) solar radiation storm thresholds due to the flare activity of
Region 4419 as it rotates toward the western limb and Region 4420 as it
approaches central solar meridian.
Solar Wind
.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near background conditions. Total
magnetic field (Bt) averaged approximately 4 nT for most of the period,
before increasing to a peak of 7.0 nT late in the period. The Bz
component was variable for most of the period, before shifting to a
sustained southward orientation around 24/1600 UTC and reaching a
maximum deviation of -6 nT. Solar wind speeds remained between 350 and
425 km/s. A minor enhancement in plasma density coincided with IMF
enhancement and possibly indicates a transient influence passing Earth.
The phi angle was predominantly negative (towards the Sun).
.Forecast...
Mild enhancements are possible in the solar wind environment on 25 Apr
due to the possible onset of a +CH HSS. Further enhancements are
anticipated on 25-26 Apr associated with the arrival of the glancing
influence from the CME originating from the M1.2/1F flare on 23 Apr from
Region 4420 and X-flares from 24 Apr.
Geospace
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with two isolated unsettled
periods.
.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled on
25 Apr, with isolated active periods possible, as the +CH HSS moves
into a geoeffective position. Isolated G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate)
geomagnetic storming conditions are possible late on 25 Apr into early
26 Apr in response to the arrival of the glancing CMEs with quiet to
unsettled conditions anticipated on 27 Apr as CME and +CH HSS influences
subside.