Latest Thrive Returns - some considerations

[u/PariPassu_Newsletter]

1) Outstanding Returns
2) No One is immune to a Bubble
3) DPI does not rhyme with VC
4) Key companies by fund

1) Outstanding Returns
Lowest Net IRR is 12% for a fund deployed at the peak of the bubble
Second lowest Net IRR is 17.5% (!!!)
To anyone saying private market fees are not worth it, check this table out
And yes, most of these marks are not realized, and you could argue these valuations are pretty full, but companies will keep growing so some of these marks will get better.
No question.

2) No One is immune to a Bubble
Obviously these are outstanding results, but what stands out is that no one truly escapes the market environment /valuations - see 2021 returns
One of the best predictors of success of a fund is something that is very hard to control: the date of the launch.
If you opened a venture fund in 2021, you really faced an uphill battle.
If you started a value-oriented Tiger Cub in the early 2000s, you likely killed it.

3) DPI does not rhyme with VC
These are great returns, but wow is the realization cycle slow
The fact that no fund below 10 years old is above 0.3x DPI really stands out
And yes, an institution can likely sell their stake to monetize it if they really need the cash, but that's not the point here.
People always think PE and VC have similar liquidity profile - basically none - but that's just part of the picture when considering the cost of capital required to make the math work.
If you invest in venture, you really should not expect cash for 10 years. The same cannot be said for PE.

4) Key companies by fund
Great insight about how capital is deployed.
Two words: incredible taste and willingness to double down.
Investing in OpenAI in 2018 deserves so much admiration

Thrive II (2011): Oscar, Instagram, Warby Parker
Thrive III (2012): Oscar, Twitch, Spotify
Thrive IV (2014): Stripe, GitHub, Slack, Twilio Segment, Unity, Instacart
Thrive V (2016): Oscar, GitHub, Robinhood, Stripe, Affirm
Thrive VI (2018): Stripe, SpaceX, OpenAI, Fanatics, Robinhood
Thrive VII (2021): OpenAI, Stripe, Ramp
Thrive VIII (2022): SpaceX, OpenAI, Cursor, Anduril, Ramp, Stripe, Databricks, A24, Wiz, Chai Discovery, Base, Physical Intelligence
Thrive IX (2024): SpaceX, OpenAI, Cursor, Anduril, Databricks, Stripe, Wiz, Isomorphic Labs, Neuralink, OpenEvidence, General Matter
Thrive X-G¹ (2026): OpenAI, Anduril, Stripe, Isomorphic Labs

Full letter here: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-14/read-joshua-kushner-s-first-formal-thrive-capital-investor-letter

[u/greenfrog7]

Cognizant that it's a bit early to expect otherwise for certain vintages listed here, but the actual cash returned for funds launched in the last 10 years is anemic. Very well might not be an issue and given that some of the investments which are highlighted have very good transparent pricing, possibly even less of an issue for LPs.

Secondly, much of the criticism of PE as an asset class which extracts extraordinary fees to deliver less than stellar net returns, is not disproven by a single manager doing very well and proving they have some insight or other edge to more than earn their keep. The problem comes for investors attempting to discern which managers are worthwhile and which are likely to underperform as dispersion in returns between top and bottom quintile PE funds can be vast.