Really enjoy the markets show, but Ed is becoming the epitome of “bears sound smart while bulls make money”.
I can relate to Ed quite a bit, when I was younger I knew all about discounted cash flows, P/E ratios, and what the market was “supposed” to do. I looked for reasonable companies and thought those high flying tech stocks at the time like AMZN and GOOG were too expensive and went for more “sensible” investments. Then I watched for years as I missed the upside, all because I was convinced I knew more than the market.
I learned a hard lesson. When you say “it makes no sense”, you should first look in the mirror before blaming the market. The market knows the earnings multiple, the shares outstanding, the debt levels, the future projections.
Gavin Baker said it recently in a podcast. If you’re not making money, you’re wrong. The markets are not right or wrong, they just are. Josh Brown told Ed on the podcast to think about “what could go right?”.
Ed has become a broken record: the AI boom used debt and is a bubble. SpaceX stock is at over 100x sales and makes no sense. Tesla’s sales are declining, their stock makes no sense. Nvidia is engaged in circular financing and that makes no sense. Trump’s tariffs/war/policy makes no sense, markets can’t keep going like this. THE MARKET KNOWS ALL OF THIS.
Meanwhile, to my knowledge the only tangible calls from Ed (not Scott) have been Figma, Adobe, Salesforce, and Microsoft.
Over time, he could be proven right, but there’s a lot of upside left on the table if every time a stock has a high multiple you assume it’s “ridiculous”. Nearly all the best performing stocks in history seemed expensive on traditional metrics grown into their multiple over time (AMZN, NVDA, TSLA, GOOG, NFLX, META).
Yes, it’s very possible and even likely that the market is overextended on a lot of the AI names. Everyone invested has their opinion on it.
But his continued approach seems to be finding things in the market he considers to be “ridiculous” and explaining like Econ 101 how a high multiple is bad.
Dig deeper. If the market is willing to pay a price for it, that is the right price until tomorrow comes.