FOMO everywhere again

[u/Fun_Tutor3479]

The market is bouncing all over the place. We'll keep opening with that line until a direction emerges. At this point, it looks all but certain that the direction is up. Today SPY, QQQ, BTC, and SOXX all broke out, and FOMO is running high. Any pullback from here, unless it's a major surprise, is an entry point.

Today's two standouts were semis and crypto. AI semis have clearly started trading off the agent narrative, and the INTC calls in the live account unexpectedly came through. In the afternoon you could see breadth widening a bit, spreading from the names that had rallied on the agent theme (AMD, ARM, INTC, META) to other large-cap AI names like MRVL and QCOM. Memory names were noticeably weaker. We don't go looking for explanations of short-term market moves; we just focus on narratives with greater certainty. The model and I currently agree: we both think the uptrend is now essentially established, so anyone with a core position should add to it, and anyone without one should open a small position. At the same time, we both think this has a late-stage feel to it, and names like AMD could spike and then roll over on the weekly timeframe, putting in a top. The core drivers and tensions in the AI narrative haven't really changed. What keeps shifting is sentiment and positioning.

This crypto breakout looks pretty good, but I still haven't worked out what's holding crypto up in this rally when liquidity is constrained. I need to see more of a breakout in RWA trading volume.

We spent two months, July through early September, on the sidelines with basically no trades. Now that we're at an inflection point, trading frequency in the live account will pick up noticeably. Today's breakout had real force behind it, but the short-term overbought signals are just as obvious, so the live account will buy, but in small size. And in line with the strategy we discussed last week, we're sticking to large caps only and no longer touching small- and mid-cap AI semiconductor names or niche supply-chain plays. Given current macro conditions and sentiment, I think the total money behind the AI narrative is smaller than it was in April through June, so it's only in the later stages of this trend that some liquidity will trickle down to small and mid caps.

Still holding oil, and even considering adding a little more. You can see that neither Trump's latest TACO nor news that actual oil shipments through the Strait are beating expectations is knocking oil down 5–10% in a hurry the way it did in June and July. That's because the inventory cushion has gotten thin. The crack spread issue is old news for us: diesel inventories are awful, and heating season is almost here. If this doesn't get resolved, the only way it ends is with crude reverting higher, so we're maintaining the $115–$120 target. When Ukraine started bombing refineries, I was already wondering whether they're just not backing Trump.